baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 why were Heights at all levels way higher then the 12z gfs? accross the conus Because this solution is way weaker with the ejecting wave, and that crappy wave interacts negatively with both the retrograding low and the east coast low. For now tossing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Because this solution is way weaker with the ejecting wave, and that crappy wave interacts negatively with both the retrograding low and the east coast low. For now tossing it. I will say that i have preferred to wait till the ejecting wave was out of the picture and thus the 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 I will say that i have preferred to wait till the ejecting wave was out of the picture and thus the 12z runs tomorrow. Yeah we will definitely have to see. I should be careful and note this is a valid solution and a few ensemble members have weak solutions like this. GFS came in a lot faster with that ejecting wave and therefore we see the negative influence of both the CA low and the east coast low. I was thinking more in line with ECM which was a lot slower, and NAM trended slower. Flip flops will continue unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS/EURO are both really weak now. EURO also screws the eastcoast, 12z it had a blizzard for them, and 0z was OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS/EURO are both really weak now. EURO also screws the eastcoast, 12z it had a blizzard for them, and 0z was OTS. The 00z Euro is a decent hit here...not good for you guys farther north/east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 00z Euro is a decent hit here...not good for you guys farther north/east though. What is it showing across Indiana/Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hthe620110 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it gives us a .25-.50 of liquid What is it showing across Indiana/Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The GEM has 2-3 inches here for the 1st wave..that would be awesome if it was that wet and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it gives us a .25-.50 of liquid Do you know how much the euro gives the STL area on the 1st wave if any? it looks south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherjason Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Do you know how much the euro gives the STL area on the 1st wave if any? it looks south as well I am interested in that too as well frivs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hthe620110 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it looks like most of the moisture is north of you Do you know how much the euro gives the STL area on the 1st wave if any? it looks south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The 00z Euro is a decent hit here...not good for you guys farther north/east though. Funny, if this was severe weather season weather it would be, meh, water the garden. I guess when you live in LAF you take every inch of snow like it's your last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Haven't been following this thread closely, but it looks like the GFS keeps flip flopping on strength, 6z looks solid. And maybe it's just me, but the NAM smell like rain down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Funny, if this was severe weather season weather it would be, meh, water the garden. I guess when you live in LAF you take every inch of snow like it's your last. But snow is snow bro. We're nickel and diming our way to a nice December here. I'd take another 2-4" in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Personally i like the trend of the models. First thing is getting the east coast system to go out to sea and or keep moving along. They have been slowly trending that way. Next will be our system and for that see this from the GRR AM AFD.. .LONG TERM...(354 AM EST FRI DEC 17 2010) (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY) THE PRIMARY ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SNOW POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY. THAT IS TIED TO HOW FAR NORTH THE UPPER WAVE TRACKS THAT DRIVES THE SNOW EVENT. AT ISSUE AS ALWAYS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT ALL THAT STABLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS. THE ECMWF WAS NOT FORECASTING THE SYSTEM AT ALL UNTIL TWO RUNS AGO. MEANWHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING IT BUT EACH RUN HAS A DIFFERENT TRACK FOR IT. ACTUALLY THOUGH...THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE GFS SEEMS THE MOST STABLE AND I USED THAT AS MY BASIS FOR THE LATEST GRID RENDITION. OVERALL WE CONTINUE TO SEE THE ODDLY RETROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS CANADA THAT LEADS TO THE EJECTION OF A SHORTWAVE FROM A CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT FOR THE MOST PART IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OK IT WIGGLES AROUND SOME BUT REALLY MAKES LITTLE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INLAND IN OREGON OR WASHINGTON IN ALL THAT TIME). AT ISSUE FOR OUR SNOW EVENT FOR TUESDAY IS JUST HOW MUCH AMPLIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SINCE IT IS FORECAST TO HAVE A 150 KNOT JET CORE UNDERNEATH IT.... I HAVE TO BELIEVE THIS COULD HAVE MORE PUNCH THEN THE MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW. SINCE THE SYSTEM THAT CREATES THIS STORM IS OFF SHORE YET... AND WE KNOW THE MODELS DO NOT HANDEL THESE SYSTEMS ALL TOO WELL THAT FAR OUR... DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST NEARLY AT ALL TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the more i look at this potential storm, the more it reminds me of what we just had come thru here the last couple days.....the difference being that it manages to push a little more northeast than the last one. If this models stronger in upcoming runs, warm air could be an issue for many of us in IL, IN, and OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not a bad agreement... (6z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 JMA/DGEX/GEM also plays also plays along but with different timing/tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I've been dead on my calls for here every event this winter so far.. Doubt I'll be wrong this time. Jackpot areas will be south and west of me. Cromartie says rain for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 120 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 120 Euro looks like another .5-1.5" in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 120 Euro What's the scale for the colors/shading? Light green=0.1-0.25"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 looks like another .5-1.5" in the cards. What's the scale for the colors/shading? Light green=0.1-0.25"? .1 light green/.25 dark green Euro 00z IND - .49 LAF - .45 OKK - .38 ORD - .21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 .1 light green/.25 dark green Euro 00z IND - .49 LAF - .45 OKK - .38 ORD - .21 Thanks. 0.45"...I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 120 Euro A green penis? Seriously though, Im feeling fairly decent about the potential for here. Would be nice to freshen up the snowpack. Would be potentially a great base for a winterlong snowcover. Our avg depth is down to ~5" from the storm total of 6.3". Thats really not a lot of settling for 5 days after a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Haven't been following this thread closely, but it looks like the GFS keeps flip flopping on strength, 6z looks solid. And maybe it's just me, but the NAM smell like rain down the road. Cromartie says rain for you. looks like another .5-1.5" in the cards. You should try to poo poo this storm a little harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I really like the look of this storm. Like GRR said, that strong of an upper level jet should help spawn at least a moderate snow event. Yes, the amplitude of the pacific wave and amount of confluence/blocking across the Great Lakes are still in question, but still, I'm liking at least a swath of advisory snows (maybe low end warning) somewhere across our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 You should try to poo poo this storm a little harder. Getting back to basics. FWIW it looks like the NAM is going to have a pretty strong little system and looks to be wash rinse repeat track wise. Very slow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Getting back to basics. FWIW it looks like the NAM is going to have a pretty strong little system and looks to be wash rinse repeat track wise. curious as to what way direction that tracks after 84hrs. I think the bears are playing in MN on monday night..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I really like the look of this storm. Like GRR said, that strong of an upper level jet should help spawn at least a moderate snow event. Yes, the amplitude of the pacific wave and amount of confluence/blocking across the Great Lakes are still in question, but still, I'm liking at least a swath of advisory snows (maybe low end warning) somewhere across our region. This.. With the recent trends with the Atlantic system i am beginning to like our odds alot. That should allow the system as well ( besides having a stronger system itself ) to stay on a more easterly direction vs dropping ese/se into KY etc as we have been seeing recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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