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12/20-12/21 Moderate/Intense Clipper Event?


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FZDZ or -ZR for the morning rush FTL. Although I think we'll manage to poke above freezing here overnight/tomorrow, although even with that, surfaces could remain icy due to the constant cold of this month. Saw that happen a couple of winters ago.

Radar returns inching their way closer...

Yeah, I'd like to take a pass on tomorrow mornings rush hour..:fever:

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LOT

WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

WE RAISE THE SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE THIS EVENING. REPORTS OF 3

INCHES OF SNOW IN LASALLE COUNTY AS OF 330 PM. THIS FRONT HAS A

LOT MORE LIFT THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS BAND WILL MOVE INTO

CHICAGO AND NORTHWEST INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE

LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS THIS INCREASE IN LIFT AND PRECIPITATION BY

06 UTC. THERE WILL AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR

TUESDAY. WE STILL EXPECT FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT LITTLE ICE

ACCUMULATION BY 9 AM CST TUESDAY. THE TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENT WILL

BRING A LITTLE HIGHER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LOCAL WRF AND NAM MODELS WERE USED FOR THE OMEGA FIELDS

MATCHING THE CURRENT SNOW. WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION ENDING TUESDAY

AFTERNOON AS DRIZZLE.

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MPX short term forecast for MSP metro:

A HEAVY SNOW BAND WILL MOVE GRADUALLY ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES

METROPOLITAN AREAS...AND SURROUNDING COUNTIES...WITH SNOWFALL

RATES IN EXCESS ON ONE INCH PER HOUR...POSSIBLY NEAR TWO INCHES

PER HOUR. THE RATES WILL HAVE DEFINITE IMPACTS ON THE EVENING

COMMUTE. LEAVE EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. EAST WINDS

WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 MPH...WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR BLOWING...BUT

THE MAIN IMPACT WILL SIMPLY BE THE RATE AT WHICH THE SNOW IS

FALLING. TOTAL AMOUNTS BY 800 PM OF FOUR TO SEVEN INCHES ARE

EXPECTED.

awful timing

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For the good folks over in Illinois and parts of Wisconsin, this event is a great example of NW flow with an east coast trough not negatively influencing a system as it heads east. In this case, that east coast low is acting to enhance horizontal deformation and frontogenesis, and what looked to intially be a WAA event has now turned dominant frontogenetic along the warm front. Good weather example showing confluence doesn't equal crap weather all the time. Snowman.gif

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For the good folks over in Illinois and parts of Wisconsin, this event is a great example of NW flow with an east coast trough not negatively influencing a system as it heads east. In this case, that east coast low is acting to enhance horizontal deformation and frontogenesis, and what looked to intially be a WAA event has now turned dominant frontogenetic along the warm front. Good weather example showing confluence doesn't equal crap weather all the time. Snowman.gif

When it moves over Lake Michigan, would the lake have any influence on it?

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