hawkeye_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Snow is really starting to come down here and there is a heavier band just about to move in. 2 inches may be possible if it snows like this or heavier for a couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The good news for ORD is that they shouldn't have any dry air issues to deal with. It's currently 16/11. The bad news for ORD is that the 12z NAM (fwiw) has the 546 thickness line pass through for the last half of the event. Even if ORD manages to get 0.30" of liquid (an optimistic projection to begin with), at least 0.10" of this could be non-snow. The more I follow these events, it makes you realize that snow is not an easy process; many things need to go right. For example, you'd think we wouldn't have precip-type issues with such an antecedent cold airmass in place and good snowcover in the midwest for mid-Dec... 2" sounds like a good target. Some area might see more given the weenie nuggets Izzi dropped and the banding seen out west. Not too worried about mixing cutting down the action here outside poor ratios and meager back end freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The good news for ORD is that they shouldn't have any dry air issues to deal with. It's currently 16/11. The bad news for ORD is that the 12z NAM (fwiw) has the 546 thickness line pass through for the last half of the event. Even if ORD manages to get 0.30" of liquid (an optimistic projection to begin with), at least 0.10" of this could be non-snow. The more I follow these events, it makes you realize that snow is not an easy process; many things need to go right. For example, you'd think we wouldn't have precip-type issues with such an antecedent cold airmass in place and good snowcover in the midwest for mid-Dec... 850's at ORD are -4C at 12Z. The event is over by then. There will be no mixing during the main event. Freezing drizzle or snow grains after the snow is done due to drying above 800mb is possible, but a bonafide mixing scenario is not going to happen. Using 1000-500mb thicknesses in this situation is tricky, as mid-level thicknesses are pretty high due to WAA aloft, but never get that close to... or over 0C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The good news for ORD is that they shouldn't have any dry air issues to deal with. It's currently 16/11. The bad news for ORD is that the 12z NAM (fwiw) has the 546 thickness line pass through for the last half of the event. Even if ORD manages to get 0.30" of liquid (an optimistic projection to begin with), at least 0.10" of this could be non-snow. The more I follow these events, it makes you realize that snow is not an easy process; many things need to go right. For example, you'd think we wouldn't have precip-type issues with such an antecedent cold airmass in place and good snowcover in the midwest for mid-Dec... Well if you put stock into the 12z NAM (and the soundings), it's pretty much all snow for ORD. Thickness only gets to 543, but that's after all of the precip has passed. The profiles are favorable for all snow IMO. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KORD.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KORD.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Real nice looking band for our posters from QC to Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I've received over a half inch in the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well if you put stock into the 12z NAM (and the soundings), it's pretty much all snow for ORD. Thickness only gets to 543, but that's after all of the precip has passed. The profiles are favorable for all snow IMO. http://68.226.77.253...NAM212_KORD.txt http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_KORD.txt Yeah, agree...thanks ChicagoWx (and alek and csnavy). I should have been a bit clearer: even if the precip is done by then, the surface temp and/or Td will probably rise to the mid 30s after the event at ORD, which would melt off some of the snow that falls. The storm certainly has an intense baroclinic zone...it has definitely been interesting to follow from a meteorological standpoint. Good luck to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Real nice looking band for our posters from QC to Cedar Rapids. Quite a few moderate snow reports popping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 ' Yeah, agree...thanks ChicagoWx (and alek and csnavy). I should have been a bit clearer: even if the precip is done by then, the surface temp and/or Td will probably rise to the mid 30s after the event at ORD, which would melt off some of the snow that falls. The storm certainly has an intense baroclinic zone...it has definitely been interesting to follow from a meteorological standpoint. Good luck to all. We're just not getting a lot out of this one anyways, if we lose 1/2" of our 2" to melting so be it. Ground temps are pretty cold though and it will be dark, so i'm not that worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 In Bloomington, MN for holiday visits. Snowing lightly here for thirty minutes or so with a dusting on the paved surfaces so far. Trends look decent to our south and west. Looking to get on the sleds today at last weekend's hot spot over in Shakopee. Wouldn't mind today's hot spot being over the Bank. Going to be a hell of a story line playing out there. Pack loss last night makes a closer game more palatable for Bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The good news for ORD is that they shouldn't have any dry air issues to deal with. It's currently 16/11. The bad news for ORD is that the 12z NAM (fwiw) has the 546 thickness line pass through for the last half of the event. Even if ORD manages to get 0.30" of liquid (an optimistic projection to begin with), at least 0.10" of this could be non-snow. The more I follow these events, it makes you realize that snow is not an easy process; many things need to go right. For example, you'd think we wouldn't have precip-type issues with such an antecedent cold airmass in place and good snowcover in the midwest for mid-Dec... I hate to say it, but this is not a very informed post. Sounding data tells the story (not the 546 thickness line), and you can't infer column saturation from a single surface observation. I just checked the sounding forecasts for ORD from about 20Z this afternoon through 12Z Tuesday. The sounding clearly supports an all snow event. Moreover, the output from the 12Z NAM is a liquid equivalent of 0.39". This should be easily 3-4" if taken verbatim. I don't see any mixing issues at ORD. And the forecast from the NAM also shows ORD getting up to 33F tomorrow at the most, so I don't think the snow is going anywhere once it falls. It will, however, make it easier to keep runways clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That band is really getting its act together from southeast of DVN all the way up to MCW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Alek screw zone FTL....T-snow bullseye FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Alek screw zone FTL....T-snow bullseye FTW i'll take my 2.5" and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 1"/hour for Bismarck. METAR KBIS 201552Z 09009KT 1/4SM R31/1800V2400FT +SN FZFG VV005 M11/M12 A2969 RMK AO2 SLP093 P0010 T11061117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is odd. When we were in the lighter green on radar it was snowing pretty hard. Now that the darker green band has finally moved over us the snow has become very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 This is odd. When we were in the lighter green on radar it was snowing pretty hard. Now that the darker green band has finally moved over us the snow has become very light. hmm, band looks pretty healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 light snow here. coating on the roads. their afd hinted at wanting to trim their warning area back and they lowered totals overnight. i'd say i'd be lucky to get 6, but i'll certainly take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I hate to say it, but this is not a very informed post. Sounding data tells the story (not the 546 thickness line), and you can't infer column saturation from a single surface observation. I just checked the sounding forecasts for ORD from about 20Z this afternoon through 12Z Tuesday. The sounding clearly supports an all snow event. Moreover, the output from the 12Z NAM is a liquid equivalent of 0.39". This should be easily 3-4" if taken verbatim. I don't see any mixing issues at ORD. And the forecast from the NAM also shows ORD getting up to 33F tomorrow at the most, so I don't think the snow is going anywhere once it falls. It will, however, make it easier to keep runways clear. Fair enough...I appreciate the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1019 AM CST MON DEC 20 2010 UPDATE ..MAJOR REVISIONS TO THE OVERALL FCST 12Z UA DATA COMBINED WITH RADAR/SFC OBS SHOW THE SNOW BREAKING OUT MUCH SOONER THAN EXPECTED. COMBINATION OF RUC TRENDS AND INCOMING WRF INDICATE THE 290K CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND 290K OMEGA DEPICT REASONABLY WELL WHAT IS CURRENTLY GOING. WAA STRENGTHENS THE OMEGA BY LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING IS CURRENTLY ROUGHLY ON A KALO TO KEWANEE LINE AND WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH/EAST. THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE CURRENTLY HEADLINES AND HAVE MADE THEM EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY. IT APPEARS THAT 2 TO NEARLY 4 INCHES MAY OCCUR BY SUNSET WITH ANOTHER INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS IN THE SOUTH GET TO AROUND FREEZING SO A RASN MIX IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CWFA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 1056 AM SNOW 1 N HAZLETON 42.63N 91.91W 12/20/2010 M1.4 INCH BUCHANAN IA CO-OP OBSERVER NEW SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like it should be a solid 2-5" even here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 1056 AM SNOW 1 N HAZLETON 42.63N 91.91W 12/20/2010 M1.4 INCH BUCHANAN IA CO-OP OBSERVER NEW SNOWFALL OVER THE PAST HOUR. Impressive; the bands aren't moving too quickly. Could be some impressive localized totals out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 real nice banding around the QC and Cyclone. I think Chicago misses the best action well west, but 2-4" amounts are looking more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks like it should be a solid 2-5" even here. 5" might be a stretch but given the banding already going on I can see some areas getting that. should begin here in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 5" might be a stretch but given the banding already going on I can see some areas getting that. should begin here in a few hours. Out by Cyclone towards Ottawa and up towards RFD are in play for 5" IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 1" reports from both nicollet and little falls in MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 35 DBZ up in the QC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Some nice banding showing up on ILX's radar. Looks like it could be a good relatively short duration thump here this early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 35 DBZ up in the QC area. Very impressive band set up there. This keeps up and we might see a lightning strike or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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