KokomoWX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Jackpot LAF Crew & Motser? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NAM has nearly 3x the qpf that the RGEM does here. Kind of unsettling. Even when events are getting really close, models still one big mess of disagreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The NAM has nearly 3x the qpf that the RGEM does here. Kind of unsettling. This whole pattern has been unsettling to me.. But yeah i hear you. I just know to expect the worst. Atleast till that crap in the Atlantic is gone. Thus if i get what the RGEM shows i'll call it a win and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Nice, and if your making those with GEMPAK, that's pretty sweet thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Jackpot LAF Crew & Motser? I got excited at first but then I realized that is snow depth, not just snow from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I got excited at first but then I realized that is snow depth, not just snow from this event. Yea but still a nice primer for the next event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Jackpot LAF Crew & Motser? lol what a crummy map. There is 4-6" on the ground throughout SE MI right now. It has the "bullseye" in south-central MI where in reality the screwzone of snow depth is right now. And even worse, look at the western U.P. . I dont think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 I got excited at first but then I realized that is snow depth, not just snow from this event. Hmm something isn't right. I have a feeling that 24" amount in the Sierra Nevada isn't right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hmm something isn't right. I have a feeling that 24" amount in the Sierra Nevada isn't right... Yeah just noticed that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hard to believe this is what the GFS showed just 2 days ago. What a sad change for Iowa and western IL... BTW, we need more posters from Iowa. Seems to be a void in this region relative to other regions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Hard to believe this is what the GFS showed just 2 days ago. What a sad change for Iowa and western IL... BTW, we need more posters from Iowa. Seems to be a void in this region relative to other regions... Yeah models struggled with this event. Still struggling. It is a tough setup for them to get right. We are lucky they can even do as well as they do. But yeah, a huge change no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 snow rapidly developing out in w SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 snow rapidly developing out in w SD NAM looks much more realistic on the front end. GFS too fast with the QPF through much of central south SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think I will have snow developing sometime tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Ya wow, snow is really breaking out fast south of rapid city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Ya wow, snow is really breaking out fast south of rapid city. Absolutely shocked NWS has nothing for the Black Hills. I have a feeling a WWA goes up very soon. Besides the lit up radar, all models give them a quick but heavy shot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looking more and more like yet another 1/2" event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 looking more and more like yet another 1/2" event here. Yeah they might have to put out a Winter Storm Advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The calm before the flurries, crappy cell phone pics from the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 light but fluffy snow here adding up rather fast..a few tenths in about 20 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 light but fluffy snow here adding up rather fast..a few tenths in about 20 minutes I was about to ask if you had gotten anything yet from that band. Good to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I was about to ask if you had gotten anything yet from that band. Good to hear Cold surfaces really help jump start accumulations. Hopefully that band doesn't completely blow it's load as it heads east today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Just started snowing here. I think 1-2 inches of snow is all i'm going to get from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Certainly not going to be the "prettiest" system here, but I'm thinking we can score 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Cloud heights already lowering at MSN, snow should be crossing into WI soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12Z NAM significantly wetter. Still didn't grab the snow hitting the ground over Ern Iowa or IL that well, but did much better than the previous run with initialization. Combined with GFS, I may be a bit low on some of my previous calls, especially for RFD.(DVN looks just fine still.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Getting a very solid light snow here. Models suggest about an inch to an inch and a half here and radar is looking pretty good for about that much. We should get a decent snow for two or three hours and then we're done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 12Z NAM significantly wetter. Still didn't grab the snow hitting the ground over Ern Iowa or IL that well, but did much better than the previous run with initialization. Combined with GFS, I may be a bit low on some of my previous calls, especially for RFD.(DVN looks just fine still.) Nevermind, appears the NAM is doing its phase-shift shenanigans again, though I would imagine the errors it causes are fairly small 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 LOT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK NOSING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. REGIONAL PROFILERS AND WSR-88D VWPS SHOW FLOW BACKING IN RESPONSE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE. THE BACKING LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND A BLOSSOMING AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE PLAINS. AS THIS SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER TODAY LOOK FOR THE STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION TO RESULT IN A SHARPENING UP OF LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GFS AND ECMWF IN PARTICULAR DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON FROM MINNESOTA SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THIS FRONTAL CIRCULATION DO INDICATE A REGIONAL OF WEAKLY NEGATIVE SATURATED EPV (AN INDICATION OF WEAKER STABILITY/SLIGHT INSTABILITY) WITHIN THE REGION OF MAXIMUM OMEGA...SUGGESTING THAT A RATHER NARROW BUT IMPRESSIVE BAND OF FRONTOGENTICALLY DRIVEN SNOW COULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER OUR WESTERN CWA. THIS LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTAL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...LIKELY RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF RATHER HEAVY SNOWFALL. CONTINUED BROAD/DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD MAINTAIN A BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT LIMITS CLOUD DEPTH AND LIKELY LEAVES STRATUS DECK VOID OF THE NECESSARY ICE NUCLEI TO PRODUCE SNOW. SET UP CERTAINLY LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE SNOW WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING SATURATED LAYER BELOW 850MB TO NEAR THE SURFACE INDICATIVE OF STRATUS DECK COMPOSED OF SUPER COOLED DROPLETS WITH SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD LAYER TO PROMOTE DROPLET GROWTH THROUGH COLLISION/COALESCENCE. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OVER TOP THE SNOW PACK SHOULD ALLOW THE STRATUS DECK TO BUILD TO NEAR THE SURFACE WITH DRIZZLE/FOG A GOOD BET TUESDAY MORNING. CONTINUED POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH TEMPS ABOVE 32F TUESDAY WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO JUST PLAIN DRIZZLE BEFORE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. NOT REALLY THINKING SNOW AMOUNTS WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER MOST OF THE CWA...WITH GENERALLY 2-4" NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TAPERING TO LESS THAN 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS. DESPITE AMOUNTS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA NOT PLANNING TO DROP THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER....WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AND MOST ROADS ALREADY WET/TREATED THE FZDZ WILL PROBABLY ONLY ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED OBJECTS MAKING IT A PRETTY LOW IMPACT. SECOND AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...THERE COULD BE A BAND OF FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SNOW IN THE CWA DURING RUSH CREATING PRETTY TREACHEROUS CONDITIONS...SO CANCELING THE ADVISORY COULD POTENTIALLY SEND A MIXED MESSAGE. SINCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO START UP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WILL BE MOVING UP THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY TO BETTER MATCH EXPECTED HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER CONDITIONS. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The good news for ORD is that they shouldn't have any dry air issues to deal with. It's currently 16/11. The bad news for ORD is that the 12z NAM (fwiw) has the 546 thickness line pass through for the last half of the event. Even if ORD manages to get 0.30" of liquid (an optimistic projection to begin with), at least 0.10" of this could be non-snow. The more I follow these events, it makes you realize that snow is not an easy process; many things need to go right. For example, you'd think we wouldn't have precip-type issues with such an antecedent cold airmass in place and good snowcover in the midwest for mid-Dec... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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