baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 A bit OT, but this is the worst forecast discussion ever, of all time. Written a few years ago for some lake effect snow showers over Lake Superior. After writing this, they fell apart immediately...shortly after they issued the warning. This guy had to feel embarrassed. I fully encourage everyone to read this. Hilarious. I highlighted some of the funnier parts. Everyone has their bad days....this guy had his then. I actually know who wrote this too. Nice guy. Best part...the "seemingly immortal showers". They fell apart about 30 minutes later. .DISCUSSION... LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS MAY TAKE THEIR TIME IN MOISTENING THE LOWER PARTS OF THE COLUMN...BUT ONCE THAT COLUMN IS MOISTENED...THE SHOWERS PERSIST EVEN AS MODELS TRY TO INFILTRATE DRY AIR AND END THEM. MORE IMPORTANT THAN MOISTURE...ANGULAR MOMENTUM IS CONSERVATIVE. IT TAKES QUITE A BIT OF ENERGY TO START AIR ROTATING ALONG AXES OF STREAMWISE HORIZANTAL VORTICITY. BUT ONCE THAT ENERGY HAS BEEN INVESTED...THE ROTATING HORIZONTAL TUBES OF HORIZONTAL VORTICITY WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THEIR UPWARD MOTION AREAS. EVEN WHEN AN INVERSION LOWERS...THE SHOWERS CONTINUE BECAUSE THE INVERSION SEEMS TO BE PUSHED ALOFT MANY MANY METERS OVER THE UPWARD MOTION AREAS...MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEPTH FOR SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PRODUCTION FROM EXISTING SHOWERS. WE HAVE FOUND THAT ONCE LAKE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED...WARM ADVECTION AND AN ACCOMPANYING WIND SHIFT AT ALL LEVELS HAS TO PHYSICALLY PUSH THE SEEMINGLY IMMORTAL SHOWERS OFF THE SHORE WHERE THEIR EXISTANCE OR NON-EXISTANCE IS NO LONGER OUR PROBLEM. WE ANCPT COLD ADVECTION UNTIL ABOUT 10Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. SO WE ARE TEMPORIZING BY EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 06Z WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ANOTHER POINT BEARING UPON OUR REASON OF EXTENDING THE WINTER STORM WARNING WESTWARD ACROSS ASHLAND COUNTY. BESIDES REPORTS OF SEVEN INCHES OF FRESH SNOW AND VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES SOUTH OF ASHLAND...RADAR SHOWS A STANDING WAVE DEVELOPING EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS THAT RUN DOWN ALONG THE SPINE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONCURS WITH THIS OBSERVATION. THE STANDING WAVE IS PROPAGATING TO THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTH OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE HAS BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THIS PROPAGATING WAVE INTO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. THAT PROPAGATING CONVECTION IS THE SOURCE OF THE SNOWFALL REPORTS IN ASHLAND COUNTY...WELL SOUTH OF THE LAKESHORE. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN COLUMN STRUCTURE...THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE STANDING WAVE WILL FALL APART ANYTIME SOON. OUR COMMENTS ABOUT ANGULAR MOMENTUM BEING CONSERVATIVE ALSO APPLY TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUED EXISTANCE OF THIS STANDING WAVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow, that is pretty bad. My professors would cry if I wrote anything like that on a test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like Madison stands to get a few inches at least, and thermal profiles look like pure snow despite the NWS having ice in the forecast. Should be better than that last bust, it was already looking crappy the day before. Thermal profiles are safely below 0C but looks like a lot of mid level drying with some lingering weak lift. I could see it becoming drizzly at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow, that is pretty bad. My professors would cry if I wrote anything like that on a test. Yeah we all got a good laugh out of it. Still not sure exactly what the heck he was talking about. Magic meteorology, perhaps? It goes down as a classic, that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like Madison stands to get a few inches at least, and thermal profiles look like pure snow despite the NWS having ice in the forecast. Should be better than that last bust, it was already looking crappy the day before. Madison should get a few....the system is weaning as it hits me but GFS Bufkit assuming a 12:1 ratio still gives me about 3 inches....and for KMKX assuming s 12:1 ratio it shows 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Madison should get a few....the system is weaning as it hits me but GFS Bufkit assuming a 12:1 ratio still gives me about 3 inches....and for KMKX assuming s 12:1 ratio it shows 4 inches. meant assuming a 12:1 for KMKX....but yeah looks like you get about 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
g12777 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 He is absolutely not a bad forecaster...I would argue that I learned the most from him out of all the forecasters there this summer...he is incredibly sharp when it comes to the meteorology and to computer programming/modeling...just because the AFD doesn't say what people want it to say doesn't mean he's the worst forecaster there...my Lord... I would whole-heartedly agree that his inability to write above a 3rd grade level does not make him a bad forecaster, however his years and years of putting out completely crappy forecasts does. Putting out a forecast for six tenths of an inch of snow 30-42 hours before an event is the not work of a good forecaster. Forecasting snow and freezing drizzle this upcoming Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s (today's forecast) makes you a bad forecaster IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I would whole-heartedly agree that his inability to write above a 3rd grade level does not make him a bad forecaster, however his years and years of putting out completely crappy forecasts does. Putting out a forecast for six tenths of an inch of snow 30-42 hours before an event is the not work of a good forecaster. Forecasting snow and freezing drizzle this upcoming Tuesday with highs in the upper 30s (today's forecast) makes you a bad forecaster IMO. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 5-7 inches for La Crosse... Rochester to my west i believe has 6 more inches then me...they'll be closing in on 40 inches or more by the end of next week. Crazy times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 5-7 inches for La Crosse... Rochester to my west i believe has 6 more inches then me...they'll be closing in on 40 inches or more by the end of next week. Crazy times. Wow, that's a lot of snow! Hard to believe only a few months ago we were complaining about mowing the lawn several times a week and getting eaten alive by mosquitoes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 9 hours in and the 0Z NAM looks amped already, and faster. Interested to see how this continues to play out. Could be a situation where most QPF is precipitated out really early on in the Dakotas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Looks that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Through 30hrs it looks drier and a bit further north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 NAM looks odd this run. It really slowed down the speed of the actual shortwave itself. Everything looks phase-shifted in the height field...the old NAM problem cropping up again. Because of that it has everything misplaced. This run is garbage and I am throwing it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I think the writing's on the wall for us here near the QC and Cedar Rapids. Just about to punt this one. 1" of snow wouldn't even be worth the trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I believe you baroclinic. But at this point what do you see happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 I believe you baroclinic. But at this point what do you see happening? Look at the positioning of the S/W with the 0Z NAM even as little as 30-42 hours in. Seems way too slow, and it almost stalls the system over ND. Because it has this weird phase speed issue, everything becomes misplaced including the region of height falls aloft I mentioned a few days ago. This enhances things such as static stability (decrease) and precip rates. I think that is why it is dryer this run. I don't think that S/W will stall like that. Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I cannot believe how the NAM is just miles away from the other models wrt what happens in SE MI with the Tuesday snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 That virtually all melted last Friday and Saturday. The additional snow on Monday was accompanied with several days of 40 mph winds which scoured the landscape. There's a dusting of snow here and there, with the occasional 2" spot. But for the most part the grass is showing 75% The wind was brutal last week for sure, but our saving grace was the first 4" of the storm last sunday was cement, during a calm wind no less, which froze once the blizzardous winds and falling temps took over. Not a spec of grass showing anywhere, not even by the busiest road or freeway. So white Christmas is a lock for here, bout thats about the only thing that is a lock in this ridiculous week. You coming to MI for Christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 The wind was brutal last week for sure, but our saving grace was the first 4" of the storm last sunday was cement, during a calm wind no less, which froze once the blizzardous winds and falling temps took over. Not a spec of grass showing anywhere, not even by the busiest road or freeway. So white Christmas is a lock for here, bout thats about the only thing that is a lock in this ridiculous week. You coming to MI for Christmas? No, I rarely ever go to Michigan anymore. Maybe once a year. NAM pretty much fizzles this thing out for us. I don't think it'll be that drastic, but regardless, this isn't going to be terribly exciting however it plays out this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 No, I rarely ever go to Michigan anymore. Maybe once a year. NAM pretty much fizzles this thing out for us. I don't think it'll be that drastic, but regardless, this isn't going to be terribly exciting however it plays out this far east. Ah. I knew your family was in Saginaw, wasnt sure. As for the NAM, it has been very consistent in this drying up scenario run after run...yet it has also been ALONE in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 0Z RGEM 12 & 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 0Z RGEM 12 & 24 Thanks Prins...can you total 48 hr qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Thanks Prins...can you total 48 hr qpf? total 48 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 GFS looks much dufferent then the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 Although seems dry as well. RGEM looks juicy though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 total 48 qpf I'll take that and be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 I'll take that and be happy. The NAM has nearly 3x the qpf that the RGEM does here. Kind of unsettling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 20, 2010 Author Share Posted December 20, 2010 Well as expected, 0Z guidance coming in and still a multitude of solution and only 18-27 hours before it all gets going. One thing I will pretty much guarantee. The super slow NAM solution won't verify on timing. One noteworthy item. SREF came in drier for 21Z...pretty much inline with Euro type precip amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 20, 2010 Share Posted December 20, 2010 total 48 qpf Nice, and if your making those with GEMPAK, that's pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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