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12/20-12/21 Moderate/Intense Clipper Event?


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wtf?

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM SIX TENTHS

AROUND GIBSON CITY ILLINOIS AND FOWLER INDIANA TO ONE AND HALF

INCHES NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THERE MAY BE UP TO A TENTH OF

AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.

This stumped me as well :/ Since when are snowfall forecasts in tenths?

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Lot Call :

MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE

EVENING...THEN SNOW AND AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER

MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION

80 PERCENT.

TUESDAY

CLOUDY. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT

SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...

SNOW AND DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH

WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION

40 PERCENT.

Its WHW working right now..every model is throwing out more than that..

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Lot Call :

MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE

EVENING...THEN SNOW AND AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER

MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION

80 PERCENT.

TUESDAY

CLOUDY. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT

SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...

SNOW AND DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH

WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION

40 PERCENT.

upper 30's is laughable

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Oh wow....LMFAO!!!!

WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM ADVISORY

FOR MONDAY NIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE

SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE MAY BE MANY

SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS. SO WE EXPECT THE SNOW WILL OCCUR BUT THERE

MAY BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IT IS BECAUSE OF THE FREEZING

DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIXTURE THAT WE WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY. BECAUSE

OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT.

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Then again, there is a rather significant discrepancy between that and the PFM for various sites in Cook county.

Still looking good wrt my call from earlier, but after looking at BUFKIT profiles again, I'm fairly convinced there will be some minor ice accumulation from freezing drizzle after the snow leaves. A saturated layer with temps >-8C and decent omega sticks around for quite a while after the main snow band leaves. May see some snow grains mix in from time to time.

RFD: 3" snow, .05 to .10" ice

ORD: 2" snow, .05 to .10" ice

DVN: 1.5" snow, .10" ice -- This station is tough, they will be right near the edge of the heavier bands, so places almost immediately north may see 3+ inches.

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Still looking good wrt my call from earlier, but after looking at BUFKIT profiles again, I'm fairly convinced there will be some minor ice accumulation from freezing drizzle after the snow leaves. A saturated layer with temps >-8C and decent omega sticks around for quite a while after the main snow band leaves. May see some snow grains mix in from time to time.

RFD: 3" snow, .05 to .10" ice

ORD: 2" snow, .05 to .10" ice

DVN: 1.5" snow, .10" ice -- This station is tough, they will be right near the edge of the heavier bands, so places almost immediately north may see 3+ inches.

That looks like a pretty good forecast right there. Wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated 4-5" bands sneak in there somewhere. I'd guess the Dekalb/Aurora zone looks best right now..

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I think it's WHW.

Bad writer doesn't necessarily equal bad forecaster... I don't know about the forecasting abilities but the sentence structure/overall presentation is a bit painful to read.

He is absolutely not a bad forecaster...I would argue that I learned the most from him out of all the forecasters there this summer...he is incredibly sharp when it comes to the meteorology and to computer programming/modeling...just because the AFD doesn't say what people want it to say doesn't mean he's the worst forecaster there...my Lord...

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He is absolutely not a bad forecaster...I would argue that I learned the most from him out of all the forecasters there this summer...he is incredibly sharp when it comes to the meteorology and to computer programming/modeling...just because the AFD doesn't say what people want it to say doesn't mean he's the worst forecaster there...my Lord...

the afd was fine anyways

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