12/20-12/21 Moderate/Intense Clipper Event?

[ILSNOW]

Interesting from GRR

WHEN THE 12Z NAM CAME IN IT LOOKED LIKE DRY WEATHER MAY PREVAIL

THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING

SNOW FOR TUESDAY. THEN THE GFS ARRIVED AND WARRANTS WIDESPREAD SNOW

BEGINNING 00Z TUE AND CONTINUING INTO TUE AFTERNOON...WHICH REFLECTS

OUR CURRENT FORECAST. STILL NOT CLEAR ON WHICH SOLUTION IS GOING TO

WORK OUT...BUT THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALED TOO WEAK WITH THE

UPSTREAM STORM TRACKING THROUGH WRN U.S. SEVERAL AIRCRAFT AND

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM...MORE SIMILAR TO

THE GFS SCENARIO. THE HIGH RES EURO DOES SUPPORT SEVERAL INCHES OF

SNOW BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO TUE AFTERNOON. THIS

SYSTEM WILL BE TAPING GULF MOISTURE...BUT THE SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE

WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS THROUGH. MY THOUGHTS ARE TO LARGELY LEAVE

THE CURRENT FORECAST ALONE AS THE GFS SCENARIO SUPPORTS

IT...ALTHOUGH I LOWERED SNOW AMOUNTS AN INCH OR TWO FOR THIS SYSTEM.

[cyclone77]

Ya was my first time seeing that run, looked quite interesting, curious to see what the next run will show.

18z NAM looks a tad wetter here.

Yeah it's encouraging to see it come in a bit wetter. Like many of the past systems like this, there's a hell of a cutoff in amounts on the south side. I'd feel a lot safer over towards Dekalb or Chicago. It's gonna be either all or nothing for the QCA lol.

[prinsburg_wx]

MPX upgraded to warning

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST

TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6

AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER

IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS FAR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA

LATE TONIGHT AND SPREAD EAST MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL WILL

INCREASE DURING THE MORNING WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL POSSIBLE DURING

LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY

NIGHT.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES BY TUESDAY

MORNING.

* OTHER IMPACTS...LOW VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY SNOW AND DIFFICULT

TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

[msp]

MPX upgraded to warning

and they issued it for counties south of their watch... likely an acknowledgement of the NAM and the other recent southern solutions.

[A-L-E-K]

Yeah it's encouraging to see it come in a bit wetter. Like many of the past systems like this, there's a hell of a cutoff in amounts on the south side. I'd feel a lot safer over towards Dekalb or Chicago. It's gonna be either all or nothing for the QCA lol.

this smells a ton like the first clipper-ish storm that brought you and Champaign good snow and largely missed chicago.

[msp]

grand forks just went for a warning for the southern half of their FA

6-8 inches up there and....

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN

HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE

SYSTEM LOOKS TO SPREAD SNOW INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY

ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEW ROCKFORD TO HILLSBORO TO PARK

RAPIDS. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN THESE AREAS A

WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED. MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR

AREAS NORTH OF THIS LINE THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS

IN EFFECT. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HOWEVER...TRAVEL COULD STILL BE HAZARDOUS WITH THE FALLING SNOW

AND ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS.

[Thundersnow12]

MKX going with a WWA for 2-4" and FZDZ

[Hoosier]

this smells a ton like the first clipper-ish storm that brought you and Champaign good snow and largely missed chicago.

This is more expansive on the north side but yeah, I see some similarities. This also appears to have decent banding potential like that one.

[A-L-E-K]

MKX going with a WWA for 2-4" and FZDZ

LOT will probably do the same for northern tier and western counties. I'd leave Cook and south out.

[beavis1729]

First, it's weather forum and while you may consider me "poo poohing the system" I call it a realistic view and forums are for discussing varying points of view. Fact is, this appears to be a quick hitting Warm advection snow event with a 4-6 hour window with a 1-3 inch snowfall ending as drizzle. While I am not a pro met I have seen these type of systems plenty in my lifetime. The one thing that argues for more is sometimes these systems can out do what modeling projects ..but the further north and east one gets this will be more diffiult to do. I for one am not a fan of over hyping the event either..see last Sunday's system(OVER HYPED) and for that matter the system that dropped nil on the Chicago area Wednesday eve.(2 days out maybe 2-4" when I felt it was pretty easy to see that the dry air in place was going to lead to a virga fest). My ap;ogies if you cannot deal with realities that sometime it snows and sometimes it doesn't. One more note; when was the last time our area got three 50 inch snowfall years in a row? Gimme a break...dude.

This isn't directed at you personally...but I want to explain why many on this board react strongly to comments like yours.

This is from a Chicago-metro viewpoint...but obviously it would apply to LAF, STL, KC, etc.

First of all, a Chicago winter featuring "normal" snowfall (38", with two 6+ inch snowstorms) is pitiful. As a snow/cold lover (which many folks on this forum are), it would kill me if I thought Chicago would only have 38" of snow for the upcoming (or any) season. That amount of snow works out to about 2" per week for the snow season...very frustrating and depressing for a snow lover. And, "normal" winters are mild in Chicago; the normal high on Dec 1 and Feb 28 is 40F, and it only falls to 30F at the coldest time of the year. That's not cold!

A prime example is this winter so far: Chicago (ORD) has seen about 7" of snow (about 5" imby in Carol Stream), yet we get it pounded into us that it's "above normal" so far. But there's only 1" on the ground here, with patches of bare grass evident in some places. It's frustrating having to hear how snowy and cold it has been here so far this winter (mostly from the media)...but in the back of my mind, I'm thinking "are you kidding me? We only have 1" of snow on the ground in mid-Dec?? It's winter...it should be cold and snowy...period." Such is the life of a snow lover, I suppose...and many folks on this board can relate to that.

It's bad enough that we have to hear from 99% of the public in Chicago (news media, etc.) how "bad" winter can be here...when, in reality, winters here are wimpy for the most part. If the temperature drops below 20F, everyone complains about it. Try living in MSP, LaCrosee, Duluth, etc...when they have 3 months of morning lows below 15F (and in INL, the average low is -10F in January). And in the upper midwest, you can count on a continuous snow cover throughout winter, unlike here. My point is that folks in MN and WI laugh at our winters here, yet Chicagoans complain because they're so brutal. It's a joke. Sure, I know my climo, and others know theirs...but we don't need to be reminded all the time about how bad it is.

Ok...end rant. Back to your regularly scheduled thread. Again, this isn't meant to be critical of you...but I want to lay out why it's frustrating to see posts like yours on a weather board. It's bad enough to hear this from Joe Public, so I'd rather not hear it on this board. It's like when people complain about the devastating effects of hurricanes in a hurricane thread on this board. People in those threads don't want to hear about that; it just doesn't fit the audience.

With all of this said, I guess it's fitting to end with this: "enjoy the weather, as it's the only weather you've got." Very true...but hard to live by when you're the < 1% of the population that loves extreme wx.

[goknights]

La crosse goes with warning i90 north

[Hoosier]

IND is bringing me down...snow to light freezing rain and only calling for 1-2"

[blue60007]

IND is bringing me down...snow to light freezing rain and only calling for 1-2"

I'm thinking 1-3" for us... with a dash of mixed bag at the end.

[cyclone77]

IND is bringing me down...snow to light freezing rain and only calling for 1-2"

DVN says the NAM is out to lunch by only giving us 1-2".

[Chicago Storm]

LOT

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AT 850 MB THERE WAS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN

IOWA AND MISSOURI AT 12 UTC. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER NORTH

DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA. SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO IOWA AT 12 UTC.

LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AT 700 MB SHOW THERE IS SOME LIFT

OCCURRING. LOW OVER MANITOBA IS DEEPENING. THE 100 KNOT JET IS

MOVING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI...KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. 500 MB HEIGHT

FALLS WERE LARGE OVER MANITOBA AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS IN

VIRGINA. RIDGE WAS BUILDING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. WE EXPECT A

CYCLONE OVER COLORADO AND WYOMING TO DEEPEN BY 12 UTC MONDAY. THE

HIGH OVER KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST VIRGINIA BY MONDAY USING

THE 700 MB WIND. THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA

THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW THE LIFT. THE GFS GIVES A

STRONGER WIND FORECAST ON THE 300 K SURFACE BY 18 UTC MONDAY. THE

700 MB WIND IN THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS WERE NOT THAT STRONG THIS

MORNING. WE WILL USE THE NAM MODEL FOR THE FORECAST OF THE

MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE FROM COLORADO TO WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY. THE

NAM ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS MONDAY AT 18 UTC AND CONTINUES THROUGH

MONDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM ADVISORY

FOR MONDAY NIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE

SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE MAY BE MANY

SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS. SO WE EXPECT THE SNOW WILL OCCUR BUT THERE

MAY BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IT IS BECAUSE OF THE FREEZING

DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIXTURE THAT WE WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY. BECAUSE

OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST

THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER

RUN OF THE MODELS FOR A BETTER HANDLE OF SNOW AMOUNTS. OUR LOCAL

WRF HAS GOOD MICRO PHYSICS BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 00 UTC

RUN AND 06 RUNS. BESIDES THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...MODEL OMEGA

PERFORMANCE CAN BE JUDGED FROM THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND 300 MB

JET DYNAMICS.

[Hoosier]

I'm thinking 1-3" for us... with a dash of mixed bag at the end.

I feel pretty good about 2-3" changing to some light freezing rain/drizzle. IND brought up a good point though how even if the 2m temps creep slightly above freezing, surfaces may not given how cold it's been.

[blue60007]

I feel pretty good about 2-3" changing to some light freezing rain/drizzle. IND brought up a good point though how even if the 2m temps creep slightly above freezing, surfaces may not given how cold it's been.

Hmm, yeah thats certainly a valid point. Also solid snow cover may help out too.

[Hoosier]

LOT

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM ADVISORY

FOR MONDAY NIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE

SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE MAY BE MANY

SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS. SO WE EXPECT THE SNOW WILL OCCUR BUT THERE

MAY BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IT IS BECAUSE OF THE FREEZING

DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIXTURE THAT WE WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY. BECAUSE

OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST

THE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECAST. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER

RUN OF THE MODELS FOR A BETTER HANDLE OF SNOW AMOUNTS. OUR LOCAL

WRF HAS GOOD MICRO PHYSICS BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 00 UTC

RUN AND 06 RUNS. BESIDES THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...MODEL OMEGA

PERFORMANCE CAN BE JUDGED FROM THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND 300 MB

JET DYNAMICS.

A winter storm advisory?

[Thundersnow12]

A winter storm advisory?

The worst forecaster there most likely wrote that lol I forgot the guys name

[Chicago Storm]

The worst forecaster there most likely wrote that lol I forgot the guys name

That's what it looks like.

[afterimage]

This has more written on it, always seems, undercasts deliver more, look at last storm, we had almost 4" here in Muncie, from a 0-dusting cast, hope flows

[TheWeatherPimp]

There will probably be a lot of winter weather advisories, if for nothing else, just the potential for freezing drizzle, light ice accretions.

[A-L-E-K]

The worst forecaster there most likely wrote that lol I forgot the guys name

That's what it looks like.

Bigger storm, Monday night or Thursady night?

[Chicago Storm]

Bigger storm, Monday night or Thursady night?

Thurs/Fri.

[cyclone77]

18z GFS is looking south so far through 18hrs...

Edit; Nevermind..

[Hoosier]

The worst forecaster there most likely wrote that lol I forgot the guys name

I think it's WHW.

Bad writer doesn't necessarily equal bad forecaster... I don't know about the forecasting abilities but the sentence structure/overall presentation is a bit painful to read.

[Thundersnow12]

I think it's WHW.

Bad writer doesn't necessarily equal bad forecaster... I don't know about the forecasting abilities but the sentence structure/overall presentation is a bit painful to read.

no he isn't that good...I've talked to Gino about him lol

[Thundersnow12]

Bigger storm, Monday night or Thursady night?

Thursday night

[Baum]

Lot Call :

MONDAY NIGHT

SNOW AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE

EVENING...THEN SNOW AND AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER

MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION

80 PERCENT.

TUESDAY

CLOUDY. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT

SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...

SNOW AND DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH

WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION

40 PERCENT.

[cyclone77]

wtf?

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM SIX TENTHS

AROUND GIBSON CITY ILLINOIS AND FOWLER INDIANA TO ONE AND HALF

INCHES NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THERE MAY BE UP TO A TENTH OF

AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION.