Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I can think of 3 significant December snows for your area without even having to think about it. 12/11/00, 12/8/05, 12/15/07. 12/26/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I can think of 3 significant December snows for your area without even having to think about it. 12/11/00, 12/8/05, 12/15/07. Shh...this is a no reality zone...don't ruin it! Although, since you've already interjected some, I'll interject a little more. We are -10F for the month. There is a considerable snowpack across most of the midwest. Even if this does end up being a "slopfest," we've all got at least some snow on the ground and it's not going away for Christmas. That's better than the last few years which have had pretty big Decembers and yet Christmas Day has had bare ground. Let's enjoy what we've got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's been frustrating for quite a few in the Great Lakes. Luckily we've had the benefit of lake effect snow here in Cleveland, but we're still waiting on our first system snow of the year. This one's just not going to cut it for points this far east. What percentage of your annual snow is lake effect around there? The way it's going already, I'm thinking this year might end up being 75% LES, 25% system. Our average snowfall here each year is about 100 inches...of that, I'm guessing 50 to 60 inches is from lake effect. So far, we've gotten about 13 inches of snow, and I think only about 3 of those inches is from "systems". The other 10 inches are from two lake effect events. I'm so glad for the lake (even though many of our lake effect "potentials" this year have been busts as well) At least we have a solid snowpack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 This storm is dropping the double deuce over the coastal ranges and Sierra Nevada. Part of this pain will head east in some form. http://www.mammothmountain.com/MyMammoth/WebCams/villageCam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How far south does the european bring the .25-.5 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How far south does the european bring the .25-.5 line? N. Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Shh...this is a no reality zone...don't ruin it! Although, since you've already interjected some, I'll interject a little more. We are -10F for the month. There is a considerable snowpack across most of the midwest. Even if this does end up being a "slopfest," we've all got at least some snow on the ground and it's not going away for Christmas. That's better than the last few years which have had pretty big Decembers and yet Christmas Day has had bare ground. Let's enjoy what we've got. QFT. We have had some great winters the past few years in our area and this one is starting out pretty well.I just don't get the pessimism of some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Thundersnow, What does the Euro show for ORD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Thundersnow, What does the Euro show for ORD? ORD: 0.38" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How much here ChiStorm? TY in advance. What a great day so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Thundersnow, What does the Euro show for ORD? you would have to ask Chi Storm, I dont pay for the euro precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ORD: 0.38" There ya go lol. Would guess LOT goes with a WWA with the afternoon package. 12z NAM has .24" liquid with 12z GFS about .40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How much here ChiStorm? TY in advance. What a great day so far. FLD: 0.37" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ORD: 0.38" :like: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'm gonna let my 2-4" ride for now although not enthusiastic about 4" at this point. Better chance for that will probably be north and especially west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 12z ARW and NMM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Toledo still has a solid snowcover. Noticeably less than Detroit, but their 0 snowdepth on the climate summary is obviously bogus. DTW had 6.3" with the 12/12 storm and has 5" on the ground still. Toledo had 4.0" with the 12/12 storm, no way they have 1" or less on the ground. http://www.trafficla.../TOL/index.html How are you doing with depth? If I recall you were in that intense lake band a week+ back, saw abandoned cars and stuff in CLE? That virtually all melted last Friday and Saturday. The additional snow on Monday was accompanied with several days of 40 mph winds which scoured the landscape. There's a dusting of snow here and there, with the occasional 2" spot. But for the most part the grass is showing 75% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 MSP: 12z... ECMWF: 0.50" GFS: 0.50" NAM: 0.47" GGEM: 0.75-1.00" LSE: 12z... ECMWF: 0.41" GFS: 0.43" NAM: 0.37" GGEM: About 0.75" MKE: 12z... ECMWF: 0.36" GFS: 0.41" NAM: 0.28" GGEM: 0.50-0.75" ORD: 12z... ECMWF: 0.38" GFS: 0.43" NAM: 0.26" GGEM: 0.25-0.50" LAF: 12z... ECMWF: 0.16" GFS: 0.21" NAM: 0.27" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" CMH: 12z... ECMWF: 0.10" GFS: 0.15" NAM: 0.03" GGEM: Nearly 0.25" DTW: 12z... ECMWF: 0.13" GFS: 0.29" NAM: 0.04" GGEM: About 0.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 You make a few interesting comments worth replying too. First, I certainly can't replace your 45 years of experience, but I always warn against analog forecasting which I have seen some commenters make here. Such analogs as "never snows hard in Decemember" or "WAA is ALWAYS overdone". Every storm is different and must be analyzed as such. I honestly haven't looked too hard down that way, but one thing to always consider with intense systems with low static stability is intensity driven snow which can overcome warm pockets at the surface as the wet snow flakes can easily rapidly accumulate and turn everything into a big mess. Not saying that will happen, but it is never a good idea to forecast with analogs only as it will set one up for some very big busts. Think Halloween 1991 storm. 30 inches of snow should never fall in October, right? Of course can't compare that storm to this and every storm should be analyzed without making broad assumptions based off past storms. Either way, I don't blame anyone here for being pessimistic. Around here, being pessimistic about snow systems...well, let's use the term "guardedly optimistic". is kind of the way some of us are. .. Anyway, I am not in the same class as 90% of the people here as far as meteorology goes, what I know probably wouldn't fill a thimble. That being said, since I have lived here my entire life, and have paid attention to the weather since grade school, I understand, on some level, the climo around here. You make a good point, every storm is different, and going on analogs is not a good way to forecast. On one hand I know what the weather does around here, and on the other, I know to expect the unexpected. It's happened before. December of 2007, we got 11 inches of snow, when we were forecast for less than that. Several times in my youth, I remember over-performing storms that weren't expected. At the same time, BIG storms were forecast, only to bust, and bust huge..... To reference what was mentioned earlier, there is going to be plenty of nowcasting come tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 LAF: 12z... ECMWF: 0.16" GFS: 0.21" NAM: 0.27" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" Slowly getting better on the EC...it was under a tenth before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How often does the IWX WRF update? Unless I have the link wrong, it hasn't updated after the 00z... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/iwx/program_areas/model/wrf/d01_runtotal72_syn.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Oh yeah, here you go Thundersnow: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gld/?n=nwswswrfarw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 How often does the IWX WRF update? Unless I have the link wrong, it hasn't updated after the 00z... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/iwx/program_areas/model/wrf/d01_runtotal72_syn.png It's usually updated by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z NAM coming in wetter and more west-east with the band by 30hr. vort looks stronger too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 pretty far south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 pretty far south.. Looks overdone on precip. 0.65"+ liquid here? I'd love that, but it seems unrealistic at this point, given the strength of the system progged on other modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That's the Marquette run from last night's 00z. So much has changed since then it's almost irrelevant now. Still interesting. Wish the IWX would update more regularly, but it's not maintained like our regular models are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nam continues to show the precip shield reaching further south into iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z NAM showing some hawkeye, cylcone, and DVN love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That's the Marquette run from last night's 00z. So much has changed since then it's almost irrelevant now. Still interesting. Wish the IWX would update more regularly, but it's not maintained like our regular models are. Ya was my first time seeing that run, looked quite interesting, curious to see what the next run will show. 18z NAM looks a tad wetter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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