12/20-12/21 Moderate/Intense Clipper Event?

[jhamps10]

For those in Se WI, S.MI, N.IN, N.OH etc..

We CANT have that block/system ANYWHERE inside the red box for this storm to work out for us. Outside of the red box in the green would be great/much better.

And the way to avoid the red box is to have the eastcoast system go right on out to sea and not swing up into New England. If there is a god in this universe it will go out to sea.lol

If baroclinic wants to elaborate further feel free to do so. I am just giving the dirty/quick and easy to understand version of what needs to happen.

yeah but with that block there that storm becomes a lovely snow cover that shouldn't blow around like crazy for me... but I'd like to see the clipper get a bit further south to make me feel better about any possible snow chances, but so far looks OK, nothing huge, just enough to make the ground 100% white again.

[Harry]

Agree 100% Harry. The problem is we've seemingly had that vortex over the W. Atlantic for a couple of weeks now, and as s/ws rotate around it and amplify, they re-inforce it. Pattern changes usually happen slowly so I'm not too optimistic that gyre is going to scoot out into the middle of the Atlantic in time for early next week.

I'm not giving up on this one, but I'm realistic, especially as far N & E as I am. The period between Christmas and New Year's is piquing my interest a bit though.

I hear you and do agree. I see that thing headed out into the ocean and not crawling up the coast then perhaps i will get excited.

At 60hrs the euro has the eastcoast low at the GA coast and is trying like hell to open the door for it to come up the coast rather then out to sea.

[Harry]

I hear you and do agree. I see that thing headed out into the ocean and not crawling up the coast then perhaps i will get excited.

At 60hrs the euro has the eastcoast low at the GA coast and is trying like hell to open the door for it to come up the coast rather then out to sea.

And up the coast it goes..Massive hit for i95 east from NC up to Boston..

[buckeye]

And up the coast it goes..Massive hit for i95 east from NC up to Boston..

well maybe we can start to hope that from this point on the turbo nw trend will kick in

[Harry]

well maybe we can start to hope that from this point on the turbo nw trend will kick in

I hear you..

The euro basically destroys New England. wow

[snowstormcanuck]

And up the coast it goes..Massive hit for i95 east from NC up to Boston..

ay caramba

[buckeye]

ay caramba

i'm on the roger smith lunar express dammit..... now that a coastal has popped up its coming west

[Hoosier]

I hear you and do agree. I see that thing headed out into the ocean and not crawling up the coast then perhaps i will get excited.

At 60hrs the euro has the eastcoast low at the GA coast and is trying like hell to open the door for it to come up the coast rather then out to sea.

I generally agree with your map in that the red box is usually not a favorable location for you. Although I don't think it has to be east...even farther north could lead to a much better scenario. Meanwhile, this is a pretty good pattern down this way as we're vulnerable to periodic shots of light/moderate snow.

[jhamps10]

And up the coast it goes..Massive hit for i95 east from NC up to Boston..

well at least the new server will get a big test at least..

[buckeye]

euro looks interesting at 120...... low gets to arkansas and it actually looks like its going to pop a ridge in front and dig??

[Harry]

i'm on the roger smith lunar express dammit..... now that a coastal has popped up its coming west

My thoughts on that thread like his one last year..

I generally agree with your map in that the red box is usually not a favorable location for you. Although I don't think it has to be east...even farther north could lead to a much better scenario. Meanwhile, this is a pretty good pattern down this way as we're vulnerable to periodic shots of light/moderate snow.

Yeah it is not bad down that way for sure.

Odd what this model does with the/our system.. Gotta run.. Hopefully baro picks up on it and explains. Decent snows though from ND/SD/S.MN/NE IA ese to Chicago/nw IN. .50+ to nw IN.

[buckeye]

at 144 it looks like an inverted trough up the apps and a weak low in the carolinas.....also a closed low over ohio. Looks like it was trying. Hmmmmm, this tells me if this first storm underachieves as a coastal, there's a ton of potential for the energy behind it.

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro at least takes the low out to sea pretty quickly after hitting southeast New England so it doesn't just sit and spin over the area.

This run also shows a fairly potent H5 wave moving across the midwest/ohio valley/lakes.

[buckeye]

The Euro at least takes the low out to sea pretty quickly after hitting southeast New England so it doesn't just sit and spin over the area.

This run also shows a fairly potent H5 wave moving across the midwest/ohio valley/lakes.

I'd like to see baro's thoughts on the 12z euro run...it's seems pretty complicated with two closed lows dropping in within 48 hrs of each other. first off the nj coast with the coastal storm and then another one drops into ohio. Seems like the ingredients are there to really make the models burp and hiccup in the next couple days.

[baroclinic_instability]

I still find the biggest key with this upcoming potential to be the breakdown of the Pacific cyclone and the exact timing of and how many energetic waves develop. I can't stress it enough...models stink with that type of pattern and it shows. 12Z op GFS has one early energetic S/W, CMC has two weak ones, ECM has a weak one followed by a stronger S/W. East coast low will definitely be influential but most global guidance spin up a very tight and compact leading anomaly with the main vortex generally remaining progressive. Timing of the Pacific Cyclone, imo, is more important at this time.

[TimChgo9]

My thoughts on that thread like his one last year..

Yeah it is not bad down that way for sure.

Odd what this model does with the/our system.. Gotta run.. Hopefully baro picks up on it and explains. Decent snows though from ND/SD/S.MN/NE IA ese to Chicago/nw IN. .50+ to nw IN.

Now for some useless trivia, RE: Harry's train wreck picture: That photo was taken, looking north on the Indiana Harbor Belt in LaGrange, IL. The wreck occured (either '72, or '73,) when an east bound Amtrak on the Burlington Northern slammed into the rear of a stopped freight train. The wreck destroyed the BN bridge over the IHB, and snarled rail traffic for a bit while the repairs took place. I remember seeing the aftermath, while the crews were cleaning it up. My dad took us down there and we watched from the N side of the bridge, about 100 or so yards up the tracks. . It was quite chaotic over there, that's for sure. I was about 6 or 7 when this happened.

Now, back to your regularly scheduled weather discussion

I'll wait a couple of days for the models to settle down on this. Given how well we have fared as of late with the snow, I am not too optimistic. I wonder if this is the same system that yesterday's GFS was showing for the 23/24th.... Anyway. I'll give it until Saturday to come up with a solution that it will stick with.

[baroclinic_instability]

12Z GFS ensemble shows how difficult this setup will be the next 48 hours. Myriad of solutions, some with a strong early wave, some with a strong secondary wave similar to ECM.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html

[buckeye]

I still find the biggest key with this upcoming potential to be the breakdown of the Pacific cyclone and the exact timing of and how many energetic waves develop. I can't stress it enough...models stink with that type of pattern and it shows. 12Z op GFS has one early energetic S/W, CMC has two weak ones, ECM has a weak one followed by a stronger S/W. East coast low will definitely be influential but most global guidance spin up a very tight and compact leading anomaly with the main vortex generally remaining progressive. Timing of the Pacific Cyclone, imo, is more important at this time.

http://meteocentre.com/models/get_panel.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&map=na〈=fr and the ukie comes in with a much different look and some heartbreak for the i-95ers. Wouldn't shock me to see the ooz euro crush the eastcoasters and go back to it's OTS look. We've seen this dance before.

[baroclinic_instability]

http://meteocentre.c...&map=na〈=fr and the ukie comes in with a much different look and some heartbreak for the i-95ers. Wouldn't shock me to see the ooz euro crush the eastcoasters and go back to it's OTS look. We've seen this dance before.

I wouldn't lose hope already especially based off one op run. This setup is highly variable, but there is a lot of potential.

[baroclinic_instability]

It sounds really weird but I am actually interested to see some of the incoming NAM runs, especially 0Z. Its higher resolution will deal better with the breakdown and passage of the energetic waves over the Pacific coastal ranges and intermountain W.

[A-L-E-K]

The NAM seems like it has been useful on a couple occasions, it was certainly a canary in the coal mine in re the MSP snowstorm.

[Baum]

The NAM seems like it has been useful on a couple occasions, it was certainly a canary in the coal mine in re the MSP snowstorm.

got today's non snow event correct..at least around these parts....

[csnavywx]

The 12Z Euro coming in line with the GFS in the upper levels is probably a sign that we should be dealing with a singular wave. On both models, the block has already retrograded into NE Canada... west of Greenland... before the EC storm even hits. This would NOT be conducive for the storm to sit and spin as technically, there is no block upstream from the storm anymore. The CMC is slightly slower with that, hence the hesitance of the model to move the upper low out to sea more quickly.

In addition, note all of the models are now onboard with retrograding the current low quickly WNW and then NW away from the CONUS, leaving the wave on the crest of a GoA trough-induced ST High in Mexico and poised to dive SE or ESE without crushing confluence in the way, and a good baroclinic zone and shared jet energy area to work with. It's amazing how the GFS and EURO basically depict a lesser repeat of last week's storm.

[baroclinic_instability]

18Z op run not quite as impressive, but the ensemble mean really beefed up with a number of impressive runs. I am still impressed with the potential with this system, and I don't really see anything really holding this back from potentially undergoing low/mid tropospheric intense cyclogenesis....and it will be dependent upon the how well the baroclinic wave does as it passes through the American mountain system.

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

[dilly84]

18Z op run not quite as impressive, but the ensemble mean really beefed up with a number of impressive runs. I am still impressed with the potential with this system, and I don't really see anything really holding this back from potentially undergoing low/mid tropospheric intense cyclogenesis....and it will be dependent upon the how well the baroclinic wave does as it passes through the American mountain system.

http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html

3days from Christmas eve, Id be happy with 3" But I like the fact that the weekend storm was further east on the 18z runs for the american models. Should start getting a clearer picture within the next couple days. Will keep checking back, thanks for covering something that involves the OV, hard to find a met here to bother with it.

[michsnowfreak]

love this snippet from DTX afternoon disc:

WILL PUT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND SEE HOW MODELS PROGRESS...INITIAL REACTION IS THAT THIS COULD BE THE NEXT MAJOR SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON.

[buckeye]

Im kinda getting excited about the potential. Interesting how every 18z model....gfs,nam,ukie,nogaps all show a miss now on the coast for the first storm. Granted the euro jumped on board with a noreaster, but how much solace can you have in the euro when it's been flipping and flopping just as badly as the other models.

Let's get that 84 hr threat and boot it out to sea and watch what happens with OUR potential

[The_Global_Warmer]

Im kinda getting excited about the potential. Interesting how every 18z model....gfs,nam,ukie,nogaps all show a miss now on the coast for the first storm. Granted the euro jumped on board with a noreaster, but how much solace can you have in the euro when it's been flipping and flopping just as badly as the other models.

Let's get that 84 hr threat and boot it out to sea and watch what happens with OUR potential

How does a EC miss with this wave help this one for you?

wouldn't a deeper trough push this wave further south for you?

[Jim Martin]

.AS THE ECMWF IS NOW INBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.

WHILE FASTERTHAN THE ECMWF ...THEY HAVE ALSO BECOME SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS ITERATIONS CORRESPONDING TO A STRONGER UPPER WAVE AND THUSHAVE STRETCHED POPS AHEAD 12 HOURS INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. UNDERCUTTING MODEL QPF WITH DUBIOUS OUTLOOK FOR MOISTURE RETURNWOULD SUGGEST A 2 TO 3 INCH SWATH POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THERE IS STILLCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM.

Snippet from the Area Forecast Discussion from IWX. Long-term

[buckeye]

How does a EC miss with this wave help this one for you?

wouldn't a deeper trough push this wave further south for you?

probably too far south.....today was a perfect example of what that southeast canadian vortex can do.....we were wiffed to the south today. An eastcoast low that bombs and retrogrades will only serve to jack that vortex even more. I'd rather see that sw dig and have room to pop some semblance of a ridge ahead of it, which will be much more likely if the eastcoast low heads out quickly.