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12/20-12/21 Moderate/Intense Clipper Event?

baroclinic_instability

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WxMidwest

WxMidwest

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Posted

Whoa, this is a first from the NAM. I had given up on this system, but the NAM suddenly throws a band of 3-6 inches across the northeast half of Iowa. I'm not going to jump onto this single run, but I'm at least interested in this system again.

Must off been the sampled data...

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Harry

Harry

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The main piece of energy though is still not on shore yet.

It is just off the OR/CA coast but fast approaching.

The red circle is it..

post-90-0-05539700-1292770412.jpg

The pink looks like another piece of energy.. Maybe baro can confirm that?

Can see the pressure falls in CA/OR/NV here.

pchg.gif?1292770523457

So yeah i believe the 00z runs will have it fully.

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goknights

goknights

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Well it looks like the heaviest snows will be in minnesota but hey, i'm not complaining since I already have a decent snowpack.

If the NAM is any sort of start to a trend then the trend is your friend. But one would think it could just as equally be a blip and not a trend considering it is the NAM

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WxMidwest

WxMidwest

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It's just natural for places to the North to have a better snowpack, For Example, We have had 11 inches this Dec at Rockford, These 2 storms have the possibility of driving the month over 20 inches. That will make it a Top 10 Snowy December, I suspect some type of energy right before New Year's too, plenty of Action to go around. NWS Milwaukee was talking about how January into March may be just as active/MAN Snowfall after looking at December trends and following patterns. LSE/MSP still look like there gonna be king of the synoptic snows, for now. Later in the winter that could change, a different type of potential, business may fall further South & East. I think there is the potential for a Moderate (Not to strong as to overwhelm the pattern) SE Ridging pattern later in winter, where we get storms dealing with the LaNina/-PDO induced elongated RNA(-PNA) which would benefit places like NE/Iowa/Missouri/Illinois/Michigan/Indiana/Southern Wi/MN. The Dakotas/upper 1/2 of MN/WI, and the UP (except for LES) may be out of the loop with that pattern.Of course that's just speculation, an educated guess. I think people should be happy, it's only December 19th, so much potential left. I tell you what HM said it would be a bizarro December with temperature distribution via MJO pulse/Ozone/ blocking patterns, nailed that one.

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Stevo6899

Stevo6899

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So is this storm occluding and weakening because of the ec storm or is it just happening because it does happen with some storms. The gfs has more precip further east and the low off the coast is further east. The NAM has the ec low retrgrading to the ec and the NAM has precip breaking apart earlier so I guess there's my answer. Just curious if the storm would've kept its act together if there wasn't an ec storm.

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Trent

Trent

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Harry, this blocking is driving me NUTS!!!! Argh....It's killing Southwest MIchigan more than anywhere else in the central part of the country right now.

It's been frustrating for quite a few in the Great Lakes. Luckily we've had the benefit of lake effect snow here in Cleveland, but we're still waiting on our first system snow of the year. This one's just not going to cut it for points this far east. What percentage of your annual snow is lake effect around there? The way it's going already, I'm thinking this year might end up being 75% LES, 25% system.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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Oh yeah i don't think much is gonna change for us unless that system in the Atlantic can somehow go away and go further ne/ene out to sea.

The NAM for here just looks like garbage that doesnt make sense. Not saying that because it screws SE MI. If it scewed SE MI with some other models agreeing with it, thats one thing. But while all models do weaken qpf when it gets here, none are NEARLY as dry as the NAM. Oh, and did I mention that it is about a DAY later than all the other models? I just dont get it. Im thinking 2 inches here. Would give me a 6-8" depth which imo is perfect for Christmas, plus I have a busy week (who doesnt lol?). Hopefully I wont even think of the Christmas storm and it will sneak north enough to give a surprise :)

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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It's been frustrating for quite a few in the Great Lakes. Luckily we've had the benefit of lake effect snow here in Cleveland, but we're still waiting on our first system snow of the year. This one's just not going to cut it for points this far east. What percentage of your annual snow is lake effect around there? The way it's going already, I'm thinking this year might end up being 75% LES, 25% system.

Our snow has been 0.6" LES and 7.2" synoptic.

The entire region is snowcovered, so trust me, I can remember MANY Decembers a lot more frustrating. But you can see where the screw holes are. Milwaukee area, NE IN, south-central MI (noticably more snow SW and SE MI), east-central OH...then off into PA is where the snow really starts to tail off.

ssm_depth.2010121916.1.600.450.689.4158.2038.5958.dem.shading.ilm.m.1.0.0.0.0.0.png

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Trent

Trent

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Our snow has been 0.6" LES and 7.2" synoptic.

The entire region is snowcovered, so trust me, I can remember MANY Decembers a lot more frustrating. But you can see where the screw holes are. Milwaukee area, NE IN, south-central MI (noticably more snow SW and SE MI), east-central OH...then off into PA is where the snow really starts to tail off.

ssm_depth.2010121916.1.600.450.689.4158.2038.5958.dem.shading.ilm.m.1.0.0.0.0.0.png

I don't think we'll have a white Christmas here. The north shore of Ohio from Toledo to Cleveland is virtually snow free (Trace to 1 inch). If the Tuesday storm fizzles, most of the patches remaining will melt off.

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Harry

Harry

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So is this storm occluding and weakening because of the ec storm or is it just happening because it does happen with some storms. The gfs has more precip further east and the low off the coast is further east. The NAM has the ec low retrgrading to the ec and the NAM has precip breaking apart earlier so I guess there's my answer. Just curious if the storm would've kept its act together if there wasn't an ec storm.

Oh it is almost a given that this system would have held together a bit longer had there been no ec low. However it could have also meant this system tracking to our nw as well with nothing in the Atlantic. What we need is for the atlantic system to head ne/ene and or be about 400-600 miles further ene/ne of where the models have it on Tuesday. That way the confluence zone would be in the NE and not Michigan etc. Would have also helped if the retro low moving across Canada was a bit further south to help keep the flow more west to east and the storm a bit further south as well.

Still may get a few inches but nothing like we could have seen unless the models are still off which we should know with the 00z runs..

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cyclone77

cyclone77

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Posted

12z GFS qpf. pretty sharp southern gradient, and big differences between the 12z runs of the NAM/GFS

Wow. The NAM and GFS switched roles. Now the NAM is the southern outlier LOL. Obviously this has huge implications for many of us. For example, the new NAM gives the QC 0.4", and the new GFS 0.1". That's a huge difference being so close to the event. The GFS has been trending north the last few days, and so has the NAM, so I'm wondering why the NAM would suddenly shift south so quick. It's either on to something, or it's a bad run. The way it's killing off precip so bad to the east makes me think it's just a bad run. Still going with 2" here.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

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Wow. The NAM and GFS switched roles. Now the NAM is the southern outlier LOL. Obviously this has huge implications for many of us. For example, the new NAM gives the QC 0.4", and the new GFS 0.1". That's a huge difference being so close to the event. The GFS has been trending north the last few days, and so has the NAM, so I'm wondering why the NAM would suddenly shift south so quick. It's either on to something, or it's a bad run. The way it's killing off precip so bad to the east makes me think it's just a bad run. Still going with 2" here.

Ya and with the wave we wont have a better handle on it till the 0z runs tonight and hopefully consistency will be better between the models.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

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slop fest in Chi-Town....from LOT:

"SHOULD SEE RATIOS

DROP TO PERHAPS 8 TO 1 AS THE SNOW ENDS TUESDAY MORNING."

still thinking a quick 1-3 inches and then drizzle fest. Most of it can wash down the drain.:popcorn:

ya...it doesn't say slop fest anywhere in that AFD...if you want to poo poo systems go do it somewhere else, yes there is a chance for frreezing drizzle at the end...

and you didn't include this from the AFD..

STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THE MODELS CONTINUES

TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.5 INCHES. SNOW/WATER RATIOS MAY START A

BIT DRY...13 TO 1 BUT WITH TEMPS STEADY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S AND

MAYBE EVENING RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE RATIOS

DROP TO PERHAPS 8 TO 1 AS THE SNOW ENDS TUESDAY MORNING. BUT THIS

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH NEW MODEL RUNS THUS

THE HEAVIEST QPF COULD FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. STILL A BIT EARLY

FOR AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN CURRENT INFORMATION...THINKING 1 TO 3 INCHES

SOUTH OF I-80 AND 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-80...PERHAPS HIGHER

AMOUNTS NEAR THE IL/WI STATE LINE.

I can only see any possible mixing or freezing drizzle south of 80

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Baum

Baum

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Posted

ya...it doesn't say slop fest anywhere in that AFD...if you want to poo poo systems go do it somewhere else, yes there is a chance for frreezing drizzle at the end...

and you didn't include this from the AFD..

STORM TOTAL QPF FROM THE MODELS CONTINUES

TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.5 INCHES. SNOW/WATER RATIOS MAY START A

BIT DRY...13 TO 1 BUT WITH TEMPS STEADY IN THE MID/UPPER 20S AND

MAYBE EVENING RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT...SHOULD SEE RATIOS

DROP TO PERHAPS 8 TO 1 AS THE SNOW ENDS TUESDAY MORNING. BUT THIS

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTH WITH NEW MODEL RUNS THUS

THE HEAVIEST QPF COULD FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WI. STILL A BIT EARLY

FOR AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN CURRENT INFORMATION...THINKING 1 TO 3 INCHES

SOUTH OF I-80 AND 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF I-80...PERHAPS HIGHER

AMOUNTS NEAR THE IL/WI STATE LINE.

I can only see any possible mixing or freezing drizzle south of 80

First, it's weather forum and while you may consider me "poo poohing the system" I call it a realistic view and forums are for discussing varying points of view. Fact is, this appears to be a quick hitting Warm advection snow event with a 4-6 hour window with a 1-3 inch snowfall ending as drizzle. While I am not a pro met I have seen these type of systems plenty in my lifetime. The one thing that argues for more is sometimes these systems can out do what modeling projects ..but the further north and east one gets this will be more diffiult to do. I for one am not a fan of over hyping the event either..see last Sunday's system(OVER HYPED) and for that matter the system that dropped nil on the Chicago area Wednesday eve.(2 days out maybe 2-4" when I felt it was pretty easy to see that the dry air in place was going to lead to a virga fest). My ap;ogies if you cannot deal with realities that sometime it snows and sometimes it doesn't. One more note; when was the last time our area got three 50 inch snowfall years in a row? Gimme a break...dude.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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I don't think we'll have a white Christmas here. The north shore of Ohio from Toledo to Cleveland is virtually snow free (Trace to 1 inch). If the Tuesday storm fizzles, most of the patches remaining will melt off.

Toledo still has a solid snowcover. Noticeably less than Detroit, but their 0 snowdepth on the climate summary is obviously bogus. DTW had 6.3" with the 12/12 storm and has 5" on the ground still. Toledo had 4.0" with the 12/12 storm, no way they have 1" or less on the ground.

http://www.trafficla.../TOL/index.html

How are you doing with depth? If I recall you were in that intense lake band a week+ back, saw abandoned cars and stuff in CLE?

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

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First, it's weather forum and while you may consider me "poo poohing the system" I call it a realistic view and forums are for discussing varying points of view. Fact is, this appears to be a quick hitting Warm advection snow event with a 4-6 hour window with a 1-3 inch snowfall ending as drizzle. While I am not a pro met I have seen these type of systems plenty in my lifetime. The one thing that argues for more is sometimes these systems can out do what modeling projects ..but the further north and east one gets this will be more diffiult to do. I for one am not a fan of over hyping the event either..see last Sunday's system(OVER HYPED) and for that matter the system that dropped nil on the Chicago area Wednesday eve.(2 days out maybe 2-4" when I felt it was pretty easy to see that the dry air in place was going to lead to a virga fest). My ap;ogies if you cannot deal with realities that sometime it snows and sometimes it doesn't. One more note; when was the last time our area got three 50 inch snowfall years in a row? Gimme a break...dude.

Well first, our last 3 winters have had 50" or more of snow. My bad for coming off like that, I apologize. Just don't see how you can call this a slop fest when its going to be mostly snow, if not all snow for our area.

some models are spitting out over .3" liquid so higher amounts are possible.

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