buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Through hour 48 ggem more resembles the gfs than the nam to these eyes ggem appears to have come south...significantly of the gfs and nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wonder what the odd's are of getting that on the coast before the 12z runs? Yeah I agree, that would sure help. I have a bad feeling there will still be huge discrepancies on the 12z's as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 this run would be quite more than 1-3".. we'll revisit on Tuesday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 ggem appears to have come south...significantly of the gfs and nam QPF shield is the same as or a tad north of the 12z... Placement is somewhat similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah I agree, that would sure help. I have a bad feeling there will still be huge discrepancies on the 12z's as well. There's so much energy and so much spin off the west coast :-\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Here is the beginnings of our energetic wave over the coast. What about the circulation above it? I see these 980 lows off the coast several times and then they disappear. Do they supply energy to storms like this one or is that the system for later next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 QPF shield is the same as or a tad north of the 12z... Placement is somewhat similar to the GFS. all i know is it gets the heavier stuff into central OH instead of petering it out like the nam and gfs....also appears the low is in southern/central IL at 60....this would be pretty south of nam or gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 There's so much energy and so much spin off the west coast :-\ Here is the loop if your interested. Washington has great satellite data feeds. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?ir4km_enhanced+/24h/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 set to 24 hours, and 20 frames/sec, and I could watch that all day http://www.atmos.washington.edu/weather/sat.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 set to 24 hours, and 20 frames/sec, and I could watch that all day http://www.atmos.was...ather/sat.shtml Here are all their feeds. They have a ton of data to supplement other satellite data sites. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/ The loop you have above...do it 48 hours That is beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 nam and gfs still apparently off by a couple hundred miles on where the heaviest precip axis lines up across MN/IA. NAM and a few SREF members are close to bringing it north of MSP. regardless, this is probably enough to have MPX hoist a watch tonight. Why the heck not, with their luck this winter it'll likely turn into another 1' storm for the Minneapolis area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It's still rather early and who knows when this thing will fizzle out but if there wasn't an ec storm, do you think this storm still occludes and weakens, or does it stay together as it heads for the east coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0z ECMWF continues to be one of the driest models. Similar QPF placement to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0z ECMWF continues to be one of the driest models. Similar QPF placement to the 12z run. I would hate to try and get a marijuana medical prescription from DR No. Dr No is the only thing that keeps me from going totally nuts and posting w/e model every 6 hrs a person can find to show a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0z RGEM and GGEM showing really nit hit from northeast IA to northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This one looks weak with maybe 1-3 down this way but atleast were not torching to the 40's the 2m temperatures remain no higher then 35 so the snow pack will hold. Then we focus on the next one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0z ECMWF continues to be one of the driest models. Similar QPF placement to the 12z run. Op Euro basically against the world as far as qpf placement although some SREF members have been farther north. Something is going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NMM ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 MSP: 0z... ECMWF: 0.40" GFS: 0.50" NAM: 0.85" GGEM: 0.25-0.50" LSE: 0z... ECMWF: 0.32" GFS: 0.55" NAM: 0.65" GGEM: 0.50-0.75" MKE: 0z... ECMWF: 0.35" GFS: 0.50" NAM: 0.43" GGEM: About 0.50" ORD: 0z... ECMWF: 0.28" GFS: 0.46" NAM: 0.42" GGEM: 0.50-0.75" LAF: 0z... ECMWF: 0.11" GFS: 0.32" NAM: 0.42" GGEM: 0.10-0.25" CMH: 0z... ECMWF: 0.08" GFS: 0.17" NAM: 0.07" GGEM: About 0.25" DTW: 0z... ECMWF: 0.12" GFS: 0.20" NAM: 0.10" GGEM: About 0.10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 3z SREF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 MPX riding the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ink to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 6z nam and gfs both north. Msp could end up south of big snows if trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 At this point my question is will anybody in the state of iowa get over an inch on snow from this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Large changes so far on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Large changes so far on the NAM LOL,,wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Large changes so far on the NAM As jj said..WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Whoa, this is a first from the NAM. I had given up on this system, but the NAM suddenly throws a band of 3-6 inches across the northeast half of Iowa. I'm not going to jump onto this single run, but I'm at least interested in this system again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Lots of consistency between the 0z, 6z, and 12z> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It looks completely fizzled out by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Lots of consistency between the 0z, 6z, and 12z> Once it gets onshore we *should* see less of these changes. That *should* happen today but unsure whether or not it will make it in the 00z runs? Hopefully it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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