dilly84 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 this is amazingly frustrating.....it's bad enough when you get missed to the south.....the north....the east. but for godsakes this will be the third storm this winter where we're missed to...the WEST. wtf...lol It makes it even worse that it's a clipper, the one storm we can usually rely on. Need to see the GFS, but it may be time for us to focus on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 looking at the trend on qpf for the NAM for ORD 12z- .22" 18z- 32" 0z- .40"-.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 looking at the trend on qpf for the NAM for ORD 12z- .22" 18z- 32" 0z- .40"-.50" 10:1 ratios would be good for 4" or so... Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 this is amazingly frustrating.....it's bad enough when you get missed to the south.....the north....the east. but for godsakes this will be the third storm this winter where we're missed to...the WEST. wtf...lol If it was the NORMAL miss to the west ( Storm tracking from TX to WI/Up of MI/Canada i could even live with it but this crap is for the birds. wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If it was the NORMAL miss to the west ( Storm tracking from TX to WI/Up of MI/Canada i could even live with it but this crap is for the birds. wow... exactly, when i say miss, i mean miss as in all precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Is there going to be a radio show for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 It makes it even worse that it's a clipper, the one storm we can usually rely on. Need to see the GFS, but it may be time for us to focus on Christmas Eve. meh.. This is not true ( clipper diving out of Canada ) clipper though. Other then a ugly wretched mess i am not sure what to call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 meh.. This is not true ( clipper diving out of Canada ) clipper though. Other then a ugly wretched mess i am not sure what to call it. Yeah it is definitely not a true Alberta type clipper as they remain very progressive and an open wave aloft (track fast) and are in a pretty steady-state of cyclogenesis in the low levels. This system, besides deepening and closing off well past the typical Alberta Clipper (in terms of vertical depth), the low level latent heat release effects will hasten cyclogenesis and occlusion and eventual rapid weakening unlike a typical clipper. The dryness (lacks significant diabatic effects in the low levels) of typical clippers helps them remain in that steady-state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 meh.. This is not true ( clipper diving out of Canada ) clipper though. Other then a ugly wretched mess i am not sure what to call it. yea, this is not really a clipper event for us here in Ohio. The clipper/low is very far north. The precip associated with it, (assuming any makes it here), is strictly waa stuff. by the way...fwiw, not much...i just looked at the jma on accuwx and it looks like the xmas storm is an exact duplicate of what is supposed to occur monday/tuesday. Only diff is the nw to se band of precip is a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 exactly, when i say miss, i mean miss as in all precip. Well we do atleast have these to hang some hope on.. Yeah it is definitely not a true Alberta type clipper as they remain very progressive and an open wave aloft (track fast) and are in a pretty steady-state of cyclogenesis in the low levels. This system, besides deepening and closing off well past the typical Alberta Clipper (in terms of vertical depth), the low level latent heat release effects will hasten cyclogenesis and occlusion and eventual rapid weakening unlike a typical clipper. The dryness (lacks significant diabatic effects in the low levels) of typical clippers helps them remain in that steady-state. Thanks. I really am lazy and thus do appreciate you taking the time to explain it all as i know many do enjoy reading it. yea, this is not really a clipper event for us here in Ohio. The clipper/low is very far north. The precip associated with it, (assuming any makes it here), is strictly waa stuff. by the way...fwiw, not much...i just looked at the jma on accuwx and it looks like the xmas storm is an exact duplicate of what is supposed to occur monday/tuesday. Only diff is the nw to se band of precip is a little further south. It would not surprise me at this point. Nothing will till the Atlantic is finally cleaned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Classic clipper for those that want to see one in motion. http://www.meteo.psu...07/us0222j3.php Note how it maintains an open wave status until it reaches the Atlantic 500-700 hpa with a low level cyclone (850/surface). It is generally a rather steady and slow amplification of a disturbance as opposed to a rapid cyclogenesis event where the growth of the disturbance aloft is very non-linear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Aye - yi - yi! I give up, Minnesota is on FIRE this year for weather. Top state in 2010 for tornadoes, and who knows, maybe on their way for most snow storms..sheesh. Hooray for us Harry! 18z NAM: .13" 18z GFS: .35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 00z NAM sucks for Hawkeye, the QC guys and us. The trend is definitely heading in the wrong direction down here. Chicago got screwed pretty bad by the midweek clipper, so at least they'll get in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 really nice hit for northern IL at 48hrs on the 0z GFS the sfc low is also further southeast on this run than it is on the 18z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 sfc low in northern IL at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS doing some weird stuff this run. It all comes down to the amplitude of the upper level wave. GFS actually comes in flatter with the S/W aloft and therefore tracks it farther S and faster. Interesting run. GFS is now trying to pull a coup against all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 really nice hit for northern IL at 48hrs on the 0z GFS the sfc low is also further southeast on this run than it is on the 18z and 12z runs. okay. look for 1-3 " with WAA and then drizzle........gone by tues. eve, it's a Minny winter and is long overdue looked again: GFS...smokin...something.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Aye - yi - yi! I give up, Minnesota is on FIRE this year for weather. Top state in 2010 for tornadoes, and who knows, maybe on their way for most snow storms..sheesh. Hooray for us Harry! 18z NAM: .13" 18z GFS: .35" 18z dammit!! 00z more generous to shaft creek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Even though the GFS is the outlier to the south, it's been trending in the NAM's direction slowly but surely each successive run. That makes me lean toward the NAM. Obviously the SREF is more inline with the NAM as well. The Canadian's handling of this is poor to say the least. The 12z RGEM forecast 2-3 inches of snow for parts of Iowa and Illinois less than 36hrs out, and then showed less than an inch in the same area on the new 00z. It's clearly lost all sense of reality with the pattern we're in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 okay. look for 1-3 " with WAA and then drizzle........gone by tues. eve, it's a Minny winter and is long overdue looked again: GFS...smokin...something.... this run would be quite more than 1-3".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0Z ukie hr 36, 48, 60 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0z GFS total qpf pretty consistent between the NAM/GFS on amounts for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 0Z ukie hr 36, 48, 60 72 Not even sure what to make of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Another pic from IWX's WRF model. its 12z, so im a little late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Another pic from IWX's WRF model. its 12z, so im a little late will be curious to see the new run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Through hour 48 ggem more resembles the gfs than the nam to these eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Here is the beginnings of our energetic wave over the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 nam and gfs still apparently off by a couple hundred miles on where the heaviest precip axis lines up across MN/IA. NAM and a few SREF members are close to bringing it north of MSP. regardless, this is probably enough to have MPX hoist a watch tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Here is the beginnings of our energetic wave over the coast. Wonder what the odd's are of getting that on the coast before the 12z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wonder what the odd's are of getting that on the coast before the 12z runs? Hey Harry, the canadians just gave you and me a nice hug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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