baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOT will probably issue a WWA sometime tomorrow, dont see us reaching warning criteria. Both the NAM/GFS have a very favorable jet across MN and a bit of a coupling heading even down into N Illinois. Even the GFS has some very un-synoptic forcing and it is likely why they produce some heavier bands all the way down into those regions. These types of meso features are worth watching and aids in rapid development and strong precip banding. Note the heavy qpf banding on NAM/GFS around 48-54 hrs. Worth watching in these situations where you see potential for rapid development. I started this thread for a reason I knew it had potential for someone. Glad to see the potential energy likely won't be wasted by a garbage wave like the CMC was trying to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Probably looking at 4-6 inches of snow here in S. WI. GFS spits out .4-.5 qpf, NAM is about .3 or so. MKE was talking about 13:1-16:1 ratios this morning, not sure if that is still valid or not with the latest north trend in models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'd cautiously go with 2-4" here. Forecast soundings don't indicate an exceptionally deep DGZ and a warming column with time means that I would be surprised if we had anything better than 10-12:1 ratios. Often have to be concerned about the models not representing the thermal fields very well but I think it will be cold enough for the majority of the event to be snow, ending as some drizzle/freezing drizzle as stronger lift departs, mid level drying commences and the low levels remain saturated. Hopefully "the king" comes in line with qpf or else I'm in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'd cautiously go with 2-4" here. Forecast soundings don't indicate an exceptionally deep DGZ and a warming column with time means that I would be surprised if we had anything better than 10-12:1 ratios. Often have to be concerned about the models not representing the thermal fields very well but I think it will be cold enough for the majority of the event to be snow, ending as some drizzle/freezing drizzle as stronger lift departs, mid level drying commences and the low levels remain saturated. Hopefully "the king" comes in line with qpf or else I'm in trouble. Freezing drizzle sucks, I hate it. One of the most challenging p-types to accurately forecast. 2-4" sounds about right overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 AND the Christmas storm remains a miss to my south. Kind of a "screw you, central Ohio" run from the GFS there. that might be a good thing on a 120+ hr gfs storm recall, this upcoming clipper was shown much further south in the runs a day or two ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'd cautiously go with 2-4" here. Forecast soundings don't indicate an exceptionally deep DGZ and a warming column with time means that I would be surprised if we had anything better than 10-12:1 ratios. Often have to be concerned about the models not representing the thermal fields very well but I think it will be cold enough for the majority of the event to be snow, ending as some drizzle/freezing drizzle as stronger lift departs, mid level drying commences and the low levels remain saturated. Hopefully "the king" comes in line with qpf or else I'm in trouble. I am not to keen on this thing developing freezing drizzle on the back end though for your area, at least not right now. Generally like to see a less statically stable low level layer with more lift, doesn't seem favorable at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'd cautiously go with 2-4" here. Forecast soundings don't indicate an exceptionally deep DGZ and a warming column with time means that I would be surprised if we had anything better than 10-12:1 ratios. Often have to be concerned about the models not representing the thermal fields very well but I think it will be cold enough for the majority of the event to be snow, ending as some drizzle/freezing drizzle as stronger lift departs, mid level drying commences and the low levels remain saturated. Hopefully "the king" comes in line with qpf or else I'm in trouble. I am not to keen on this thing developing freezing drizzle on the back end though for your area, at least not right now. Generally like to see a less statically stable low level layer with more lift, doesn't seem favorable at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I am not to keen on this thing developing freezing drizzle on the back end though for your area, at least not right now. Generally like to see a less statically stable low level layer with more lift, doesn't seem favorable at this time. The drizzle aspect may not work out per se, but there are indications of just enough warmth trying to get in at the very end to perhaps support a brief period of some light rain/freezing rain. It's a race though...the cold could hang on but how often have models not been aggressive enough with waa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The drizzle aspect may not work out per se, but there are indications of just enough warmth trying to get in at the very end to perhaps support a brief period of some light rain/freezing rain. It's a race though...the cold could hang on but how often have models not been aggressive enough with waa? I think we're in the same boat. Looks like we'll get a quick shot of snow, but then sort of get dry slotted with some possible freezing drizzle issues. Starting to look like the heaviest bands set up from Dubuque down through Dekalb. I'm thinking around 2 inches or so for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The drizzle aspect may not work out per se, but there are indications of just enough warmth trying to get in at the very end to perhaps support a brief period of some light rain/freezing rain. It's a race though...the cold could hang on but how often have models not been aggressive enough with waa? If there is some truth to this then i don't think the WAA will be as aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 If there is some truth to this then i don't think the WAA will be as aggressive. I've come to learn that it doesnt matter if there is snowpack, model bias, whatever...WAA is always underforecasted and I know this cause I've spent most of my life in and around the I-70 corridor where this takes place several times a winter it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 The drizzle aspect may not work out per se, but there are indications of just enough warmth trying to get in at the very end to perhaps support a brief period of some light rain/freezing rain. It's a race though...the cold could hang on but how often have models not been aggressive enough with waa? Yeah I see what you are saying, I was thinking drizzle not good, but yeah changeover potential and crappy wet snow unless some convective bursts develop early. I always forget how far south you are. I kinda lump you in with the Chicago guys then forget you are well S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 If there is some truth to this then i don't think the WAA will be as aggressive. I'm not really worried about the surface. Sure it could poke above freezing on Tuesday but my guess is not by a lot. I guess I'm a little spooked by the last event which unexpectedly brought zr all the way north to Decatur/Terre Haute. Again I'm feeling pretty good about this being mostly snow but not at all inconceivable that the warmer air comes in a couple hours quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Well, December does not want to let up, now, does it? Another two to three incher looking good for the region. And then, who knows about later next week. I'm thinking mother nature is gonna punish us (who have gotten a respectable amount of snow), and we're going to go into a big "sophomore slump". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I hear you man. This should be firmly over with though by the 1st week of Jan at the latest. Could ofcourse catch a break between now and then and may even have to deal with some torching for a bit but it will be worth getting rid of this status quo. I have not totally given up on this YET but the writing is on the wall. We may be in a relatively boring pattern, but it could be FAR worse. I don't remember the last time we had a substantial (persistent) snowpack this early in December without a big thaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 We may be in a relatively boring pattern, but it could be FAR worse. I don't remember the last time we had a substantial (persistent) snowpack this early in December without a big thaw. There is only about 2 o so covering the ground here and it is old. Last December was not bad either as far as persistent snowpack however the lake atleast managed to come through and dump a couple of nice ones here unlike this year. Anyways i'll take storms over this if it means losing the snowpack here and there. Sorry but this does zero for me. Now if it was a DEEP snowpack then that would be different but it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 that might be a good thing on a 120+ hr gfs storm recall, this upcoming clipper was shown much further south in the runs a day or two ago. yep 18Z GFS- bullseye over me 120 hours out= no snow for me when it gets here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 the first wave tonight and tomorrow and tomorrow night keeps trending south, might see some snow here after all. many ensembles on gfs, gem, nam have stl in a nice range of 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 There is only about 2 o so covering the ground here and it is old. Last December was not bad either as far as persistent snowpack however the lake atleast managed to come through and dump a couple of nice ones here unlike this year. Anyways i'll take storms over this if it means losing the snowpack here and there. Sorry but this does zero for me. Now if it was a DEEP snowpack then that would be different but it is not. wow, for you guys that's pretty rough....especially considering the proximity to the lakes. You guys have not only been screwed synoptically, but much worse in the LES dept. I feel for ya Harry. Suddenly my 2-3" in mby doesn't seem so skimpy. My thoughts are once the block breaks we torch for awhile, and that will be like rebooting the pattern. When it fires back up you guys will probably do very well and make up a lot of ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 wow, for you guys that's pretty rough....especially considering the proximity to the lakes. You guys have not only been screwed synoptically, but much worse in the LES dept. I feel for ya Harry. Suddenly my 2-3" in mby doesn't seem so skimpy. My thoughts are once the block breaks we torch for awhile, and that will be like rebooting the pattern. When it fires back up you guys will probably do very well and make up a lot of ground. Oh yeah it has been the ole double whammy. Screwed by synoptic snows and LES thanks to nearly every freaking les event being a crappy nnw/n flow event. Tonight it is a case of the wind being to much out of the south with the LES. lol For here west/wnw works best as far as LES goes. Can still get it if it is slightly bent wsw and nw but it really begins to push it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Oh yeah it has been the ole double whammy. Screwed by synoptic snows and LES thanks to nearly every freaking les event being a crappy nnw/n flow event. Tonight it is a case of the wind being to much out of the south with the LES. lol For here west/wnw works best as far as LES goes. Can still get it if it is slightly bent wsw and nw but it really begins to push it. yep it's amazing. There are guys in the ohio thread from youngstown, akron area that are approaching 40 inches.....39 of which is lake effect. As far as synoptic snows, in Ohio cincy area is winning big....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yep it's amazing. There are guys in the ohio thread from youngstown, akron area that are approaching 40 inches.....39 of which is lake effect. As far as synoptic snows, in Ohio cincy area is winning big....lol It really has been an unusual start to the winter to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yep it's amazing. There are guys in the ohio thread from youngstown, akron area that are approaching 40 inches.....39 of which is lake effect. As far as synoptic snows, in Ohio cincy area is winning big....lol Amazing huh? Not certain but i think my old backyard at the MD/DE coast may be at or even ahead of here. Can't even begin to imagine the block had this been a weak nino! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM thru 48 is a bit farther N with the QPF over MN (compared to 12z) Beefier with QPF too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM still showing the impressive NW-SE band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 small spot of .50"+ down into northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 21z SREF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 21z sref seems to be a bit further north as well although axis of heavy precip iis greatly expanded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Amazing huh? Not certain but i think my old backyard at the MD/DE coast may be at or even ahead of here. Can't even begin to imagine the block had this been a weak nino! this is amazingly frustrating.....it's bad enough when you get missed to the south.....the north....the east. but for godsakes this will be the third storm this winter where we're missed to...the WEST. wtf...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 21z SREF: hmmm, much further east with the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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