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12/20-12/21 Moderate/Intense Clipper Event?

baroclinic_instability

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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That's the problem isn't it. This may be a situation it's more likely to have a handle on as baro has explained, but part of me still says "it's the NAM."

Yeah I am not necessarily buying it as a de facto solution because sometimes the NAM gets a little too overboard on the feedback process. It is supported by a number of SREF members, but of course, those are the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. This time though it is plausible and not just the NAM being cruddy. The potential is there. Interested to see if other guidance suggests this type of development. http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html

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Harry

Harry

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That's the problem isn't it. This may be a situation it's more likely to have a handle on as baro has explained, but part of me still says "it's the NAM."

Better believe i am hoping and praying with everything that it is just the case of it being the NAM and 18z NAM at that. But yeah baro has a point about that too. If it means though that is what is needed to give this pattern the boot though i'll take it and deal with the miss.

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Harry

Harry

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Why am I even tracking this... I told myself over and over not to get sucked in to humping every model run... Knew from day one I had about 1 i had about a 5% chance of getting over 2". Its just not worth my health following anything in this pattern.

I hear you man. :lol:

This should be firmly over with though by the 1st week of Jan at the latest. Could ofcourse catch a break between now and then and may even have to deal with some torching for a bit but it will be worth getting rid of this status quo.

I have not totally given up on this YET but the writing is on the wall.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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They've had some less than stellar winters around there in recent years, especially around MSP.

MSP hasn't even hit their average of a 45.6" season since '03-'04. madison and much of wisconsin had an incredible few years during that time.

These are very good points. Should also be worth mentioning I don't wish MN to get more snow at the expense of others. On the contrary really. I am far more interested watching/observing/forecasting weather and seeing all the amazing dynamical interactions occur as opposed to getting great hits. This one time, I will admit, I do want a nice hit because I want the MNF game at TCF to get blitzed!Snowman.gif

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dilly84

dilly84

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These are very good points. Should also be worth mentioning I don't wish MN to get more snow at the expense of others. On the contrary really. I am far more interested watching/observing/forecasting weather and seeing all the amazing dynamical interactions occur as opposed to getting great hits. This one time, I will admit, I do want a nice hit because I want the MNF game at TCF to get blitzed!Snowman.gif

Would be a little better if MN didnt suck this year lol.

Come on GFS hold your ground!! lol

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

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LOT

BY MONDAY EVENING A POTENT WAVE THAT IS PROJECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE

UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A MUCH BETTER LIKELIHOOD

FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. CONSIDERING THIS EVENT IS STILL 5 PERIODS

OUT...STILL PREFER TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE MODELS

BEFORE THE FULL DETAILS ARE EXTRACTED. STORM TOTAL QPF/S HAVE BEEN

STEADILY DROPPING FROM RUN TO RUN TO RUN...WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS GFS

RUN SUGGESTING ABOUT 0.50 INCHES TO ABOUT 0.30 INCHES TODAY.

MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS BEEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST

RUNS...AND IS IN THE SAME FRAME AS THE GFS. THERE STILL IS A FAIR

AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE BEST BANDING WILL SET UP.

CURRENTLY IN THE SAME FRAME OF MIND FOR THE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS

WITH THE SYSTEM AVERAGING THE 10 TO 1 RATIO...STARTING A LITTLE

HIGHER AND ENDING A LITTLE LOWER AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY

INCREASING WITH TIME. WITH THAT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...THERE

IS THE CHANCE THAT WE MAY WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME MIXED PHASE

PRECIPITATION /ALBEIT A VERY LIMITED WINDOW/ AT THE TAIL END OF

THE EXITING SYSTEM. WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON THE

TRACK...AND POTENTIAL CHANGES TO PTYPE THROUGH TIME...WILL JUST

HINT AT THE IDEA WITH DZ EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE

TRACK OF THE LOW...CAN TWEAK THE FORECAST TO KEEP SFC TEMPS ABOVE

FREEZING AND KEEPING IN THE DZ MENTION...OR SWING THE OTHER WAY IF

IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE MORE FAVORING SOME FZDZ.

DVN

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE-RIDING IMPULSE TO

COMBINE WITH A SURGE OF UPPER JET ENERGY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND

DIG ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS PERIOD FOR THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIP

EVENT. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z RUN MODELS ON HOW FAR

NORTH OR SOUTH THESE DEVELOPING KINEMATICS TAKE PLACE WITH THIS

SYSTEM. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS ONE OF THE FEW THAT HAS MAINTAINED A

FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND MAKES SENSE THINKING WHERE LLVL BAROCLINICITY

AND DIMINISHED SNOW FIELDS LAY OUT. WILL FAVOR THE PATH OF THE GFS...

BUT FEEL IT IS A BIT QUICK AND WET WITH RESPECT TO IT/S BULLISH QPF

SCENARIO. CLASSIC WAA WING OF SNOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING NORTH CENTRAL

PLAINS WAVE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND BUILD ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTH

HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY LATE MON MORNING AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON

AND EVENING. WILL EXPAND LIKELY POPS IN AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING

DURING THESE PERIODS. PRELIMINARY LIFT AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT

THIS POINT SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY

TUE MORNING...WITH SOME BANDED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM

INDEPENDENCE...SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOUNT CARROLL AND FREEPORT

AREAS OF 4-6 INCHES. EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH

BY MON EVENING MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING. THUS IT/S LOOKING LIKE

AN EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF

THE DVN CWA OR SO...UNLESS A FURTHER DEVIATION SOUTH OR NORTHWARD OF

THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK OCCURS. A WARM DRAW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE A

MIXTURE OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN/DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS IF THEY ARE

HELD AT 32 OR COLDER BY EVAPO-COOLING PROCESSES/ FROM FAIRFIELD IA...

TO MONMOUTH IL AND SOUTHWARD BY MON EVENING. EVENTUAL SFC LATENT HEAT

RELEASE MAY SWING SFC TEMPS A DEGREE ABOVE FREEZING FOR AWHILE AS

WELL MON EVENING. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE A MIX OF SNOW OR FREEZING

RAIN IN THESE SOUTHERN AREAS. IF MID LAYERS TEMPORARILY DRY OUT

AGAIN...MUCH OF THE CWA MAY BE PRONE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE MON

NIGHT AN DEARLY TUE MORNING...BEFORE SOME WRAP AROUND MID LAYER

MOISTURE PRODUCES ICE NUCLEI AGAIN FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES

INTO TUE EVENING. LITTLE/MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN

INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ON TUE AFTER 12Z. TUE HIGHS OF UPPER 20S TO

LOW/MID 30S TO OCCUR LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY TUE...BEFORE COOL LLVL

CONVEYOR IN-WRAPS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON.

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buckeye

buckeye

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wow this would be the third miss to the sw due to track or simple getting sheared to sh/\t. this block is killing us. It's either too strong or moves away just enough to get us on the warm side. God only knows what happens with the xmas storm....I could see it skirting under us and blowing up along the coast or bending up to the lakes...:arrowhead:

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dilly84

dilly84

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wow this would be the third miss to the sw due to track or simple getting sheared to sh/\t. this block is killing us. It's either too strong or moves away just enough to get us on the warm side. God only knows what happens with the xmas storm....I could see it skirting under us and blowing up along the coast or bending up to the lakes...:arrowhead:

Definitely getting old.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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I hear you man. :lol:

This should be firmly over with though by the 1st week of Jan at the latest. Could ofcourse catch a break between now and then and may even have to deal with some torching for a bit but it will be worth getting rid of this status quo.

I have not totally given up on this YET but the writing is on the wall.

Geez if torching is the case I almost dont want to see that happen. Have a nice snowpack outside, dont want to see it go away. But I do want big snows, so then I guess I do want the block gone. Idk, I guess Im greedy lol

Do you really see the 18z NAM panning out as shown for here? Looks ridiculous.

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msp

msp

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mpx doing a nice disco and model summary

THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE ON SUNDAY EVENING DOES NOT LOOK AS

WELL DEFINED...WITH IT BEING RELATIVELY CLOSE IN TIME TO THE

STRONGER DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. STILL

UNCERTAINTY IN SAID DEVELOPMENTS. THE EC AND GFS STILL FORECASTING

A STRONG UPPER JET AND 250 MB OF 150-160 KNOTS AND THE WAVE THAT

WILL BRING THE STRONG FORCING IS STILL OFF SHORE. THE ECMWF AND

NAM ARE PLACING MORE EMPHASIS ON MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER

TO THE NW AND SLOWER...WHILE STILL BRINGING SIG WARM ADVECTION

AND QG CONV ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER

EXTENT..THE GEM...ARE A BIT FASTER AND TAKE THE MID LEVEL LOW ON

AN ESE TRACK FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SW WISCONSIN. THE SREF HAS

BEEN TRENDING NW BUT CLOSE TO THE GFS. THE GFS/SREF WOULD HAVE

THE SNOW BAND FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TOWARD THE MSP AREA INTO WEST

CENTRAL WI...WHILE THE EC/NAM WOULD BE NORTH...MORE OVER CENTRAL

MN.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE CIPS ANALOGS THERE HAS BEEN A MATCH AT THE

TOP OF THE LIST THE LAST COUPLE OF CYCLES../ A JAN 2000 EVENT/

THAN PRODUCED A SNOW BAND VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS/SREF. THE ACTUAL

AVERAGE COOP SNOW TOTALS FOR ALL 15 ANALOGS SHOWED A GENERAL

COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MN/WEST CENTRAL AREA. ANOTHER CHANGE

FROM YESTERDAY IS THE GEFS PW ANOMALY CHARTS. TI IS NOW SHOWING A

PLUME OF HIGHER VALUES INTO IA FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM AS WELL AS

THE THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. THIS IS YIELDING NEAR ONE HALF INCH IN

BOTH CASES. A VERY SIMILAR TRAJECTORY TO THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO

AFFECT US.

WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COLLABORATING WITH

SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO STILL HOLD OFF ON THE WATCH.

THERE DOES SEEM TO BE DECENT CHANCE OF 6 INCH AMOUNTS OVER A

LARGE AREA. ANOTHER CYCLE SHOULD GIVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE

SITUATION TONIGHT. IF TRENDS HOLD FOR A SPECIFIC AREA...THEN IT

SEEMS THAT AT LEAST SOME 10 INCH AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

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DTX on Tuesday

MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE 12Z

CYCLE CONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE DETAILS OF

THIS RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE FEATURE, AS WOULD BE EXPECTED, IN TERMS

OF THE TRACK, STRENGTH, AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION

LOOKS A LITTLE MORE APPEALING SINCE IT HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND

TOOK ANOTHER STEP IN THAT DIRECTION TODAY. THE LOOK OF ITS SURFACE

PRESSURE PATTERN IS PREFERRED BY 12Z TUESDAY OVER THE VERY BROAD

AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE NAM AND

ECMWF SOLUTIONS UNDER THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. REGARDLESS OF HOW

THAT TURNS OUT, THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE SUPPLY OF GULF

MODIFIED AIR AVAILABLE TO THE WAVE BASED ON DEPICTIONS OF SYSTEM

RELATIVE WINDS. THIS FEEDS A SOLID 2 TO 3 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY

INTO THE PATTERN OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN, PROVIDED

THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH

THE EVENT. DUE TO THE LINGERING TIMING AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE

MODEL SOLUTIONS, THIS PACKAGE WILL MAINTAIN A CONSERVATIVE 1 TO 2

INCH ACCUMULATION OVER SE MICHIGAN BUT ACKNOWLEDGE HIGHER AMOUNTS

WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD A STRAIGHT GFS SOLUTION VERIFY FROM LATE

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

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Harry

Harry

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Geez if torching is the case I almost dont want to see that happen. Have a nice snowpack outside, dont want to see it go away. But I do want big snows, so then I guess I do want the block gone. Idk, I guess Im greedy lol

Do you really see the 18z NAM panning out as shown for here? Looks ridiculous.

It is possible as baro pointed out. All options are still on the table including that. We have seen this already play out though and thus my comments about the writing on the wall. Tomorrows 12z should for sure give us a answer. perhaps even the 00z runs will. We'll see.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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It is possible as baro pointed out. All options are still on the table including that. We have seen this already play out though and thus my comments about the writing on the wall. Tomorrows 12z should for sure give us a answer. perhaps even the 00z runs will. We'll see.

18Z GFS tries to show some NAM type features including some convective snow across the Dakotas, but I find the GFS solutions a tad more realistic than the NAM's depiction of a dumping followed by instant weakening. UK has a similar solution to NAM though but for a different reason and I think it may be catching on to much more dry air over the Great Lakes underneath the eastern trough. As that trough slides east it will aid in even more subsidence and drying over the Lakes/Ohio. Nonetheless, with the decent moisture feed from the S, if I were NWS actually forecasting this I would lean a tad more GFS in its eastward displacement of the precip shield.

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Harry

Harry

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18Z GFS tries to show some NAM type features including some convective snow across the Dakotas, but I find the GFS solutions a tad more realistic than the NAM's depiction of a dumping followed by instant weakening. UK has a similar solution to NAM though but for a different reason and I think it may be catching on to much more dry air over the Great Lakes underneath the eastern trough. As that trough slides east it will aid in even more subsidence and drying over the Lakes/Ohio. Nonetheless, with the decent moisture feed from the S, if I were NWS actually forecasting this I will lean a tad more GFS in its eastward displacement of the precip shield.

Guess i am still a bit spooked considering how quick the dome storm fell apart. Plus i do recall a couple of other systems in years past pulling that. They mature very quick and then crap out just as quick if not quicker as they try to come east and hit the block.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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Guess i am still a bit spooked considering how quick the dome storm fell apart. Plus i do recall a couple of other systems in years past pulling that. They mature very quick and then crap out just as quick if not quicker as they try to come east and hit the block.

Yeah it is certainly a consideration. NAM solution is prolly max intensity this system could possibly hit just from a potential energy standpoint/IPV thinking. Even then, I think at least some light snow will make it east even with the block. Tough call for local NWS offices, I think from a probability standpoint currently they have to go with a less volatile solution even though the more volatile solution (NAM) may verify.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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LOT will probably issue a WWA sometime tomorrow, dont see us reaching warning criteria.

Yeah I agree, I think WWA is likely but definitely not warning criteria, especially with a wet snow that won't be a fast accumulator. But you never know, convective potential can always change things. Could get some heavy bursts with the last second warning going out after the 6 inches is either about to or already verified.

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