baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 That's the problem isn't it. This may be a situation it's more likely to have a handle on as baro has explained, but part of me still says "it's the NAM." Yeah I am not necessarily buying it as a de facto solution because sometimes the NAM gets a little too overboard on the feedback process. It is supported by a number of SREF members, but of course, those are the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW. This time though it is plausible and not just the NAM being cruddy. The potential is there. Interested to see if other guidance suggests this type of development. http://www.meteo.psu...z/srefloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That's the problem isn't it. This may be a situation it's more likely to have a handle on as baro has explained, but part of me still says "it's the NAM." Better believe i am hoping and praying with everything that it is just the case of it being the NAM and 18z NAM at that. But yeah baro has a point about that too. If it means though that is what is needed to give this pattern the boot though i'll take it and deal with the miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Why am I even tracking this... I told myself over and over not to get sucked in to humping every model run... Knew from day one I had about 1 i had about a 5% chance of getting over 2". Its just not worth my health following anything in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I don't mind people getting snow ( Hope all gets buried ) but lets spread it around some. I dont mind people getting the big snows, but when it's pretty much the ONLY place lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Why am I even tracking this... I told myself over and over not to get sucked in to humping every model run... Knew from day one I had about 1 i had about a 5% chance of getting over 2". Its just not worth my health following anything in this pattern. I hear you man. This should be firmly over with though by the 1st week of Jan at the latest. Could ofcourse catch a break between now and then and may even have to deal with some torching for a bit but it will be worth getting rid of this status quo. I have not totally given up on this YET but the writing is on the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I dont mind people getting the big snows, but when it's pretty much the ONLY place lol. They've had some less than stellar winters around there in recent years, especially around MSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 They've had some less than stellar winters around there in recent years, especially around MSP. Basically crap for the last decade or more. As far as snowfall. Sure we get the big events once in a while but it has been pretty lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 They've had some less than stellar winters around there in recent years, especially around MSP. MSP hasn't even hit their average of a 45.6" season since '03-'04. madison and much of wisconsin had an incredible few years during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 They've had some less than stellar winters around there in recent years, especially around MSP. MSP hasn't even hit their average of a 45.6" season since '03-'04. madison and much of wisconsin had an incredible few years during that time. These are very good points. Should also be worth mentioning I don't wish MN to get more snow at the expense of others. On the contrary really. I am far more interested watching/observing/forecasting weather and seeing all the amazing dynamical interactions occur as opposed to getting great hits. This one time, I will admit, I do want a nice hit because I want the MNF game at TCF to get blitzed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 These are very good points. Should also be worth mentioning I don't wish MN to get more snow at the expense of others. On the contrary really. I am far more interested watching/observing/forecasting weather and seeing all the amazing dynamical interactions occur as opposed to getting great hits. This one time, I will admit, I do want a nice hit because I want the MNF game at TCF to get blitzed! Would be a little better if MN didnt suck this year lol. Come on GFS hold your ground!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOT BY MONDAY EVENING A POTENT WAVE THAT IS PROJECTED TO DIVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING A MUCH BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. CONSIDERING THIS EVENT IS STILL 5 PERIODS OUT...STILL PREFER TO SEE A LITTLE BETTER CONSENSUS WITH THE MODELS BEFORE THE FULL DETAILS ARE EXTRACTED. STORM TOTAL QPF/S HAVE BEEN STEADILY DROPPING FROM RUN TO RUN TO RUN...WITH YESTERDAY AFTERNOONS GFS RUN SUGGESTING ABOUT 0.50 INCHES TO ABOUT 0.30 INCHES TODAY. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS BEEN INCREASING AMOUNTS OVER THE LAST RUNS...AND IS IN THE SAME FRAME AS THE GFS. THERE STILL IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE BEST BANDING WILL SET UP. CURRENTLY IN THE SAME FRAME OF MIND FOR THE SNOW TO WATER RATIOS WITH THE SYSTEM AVERAGING THE 10 TO 1 RATIO...STARTING A LITTLE HIGHER AND ENDING A LITTLE LOWER AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOWLY INCREASING WITH TIME. WITH THAT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT WE MAY WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME MIXED PHASE PRECIPITATION /ALBEIT A VERY LIMITED WINDOW/ AT THE TAIL END OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY STILL ON THE TRACK...AND POTENTIAL CHANGES TO PTYPE THROUGH TIME...WILL JUST HINT AT THE IDEA WITH DZ EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...CAN TWEAK THE FORECAST TO KEEP SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING AND KEEPING IN THE DZ MENTION...OR SWING THE OTHER WAY IF IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY BE MORE FAVORING SOME FZDZ. DVN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...DEVELOPING WESTERN RIDGE-RIDING IMPULSE TO COMBINE WITH A SURGE OF UPPER JET ENERGY TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DIG ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS PERIOD FOR THE NEXT MAJOR PRECIP EVENT. STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 12Z RUN MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THESE DEVELOPING KINEMATICS TAKE PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z RUN GFS IS ONE OF THE FEW THAT HAS MAINTAINED A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK AND MAKES SENSE THINKING WHERE LLVL BAROCLINICITY AND DIMINISHED SNOW FIELDS LAY OUT. WILL FAVOR THE PATH OF THE GFS... BUT FEEL IT IS A BIT QUICK AND WET WITH RESPECT TO IT/S BULLISH QPF SCENARIO. CLASSIC WAA WING OF SNOW AHEAD OF DEVELOPING NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS WAVE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN AND BUILD ACRS AT LEAST THE NORTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA BY LATE MON MORNING AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL EXPAND LIKELY POPS IN AREAL EXTENT AND TIMING DURING THESE PERIODS. PRELIMINARY LIFT AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AT THIS POINT SUGGEST WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY TUE MORNING...WITH SOME BANDED LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM INDEPENDENCE...SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MOUNT CARROLL AND FREEPORT AREAS OF 4-6 INCHES. EAST-SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 MPH BY MON EVENING MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME DRIFTING. THUS IT/S LOOKING LIKE AN EVENTUAL NEED FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE DVN CWA OR SO...UNLESS A FURTHER DEVIATION SOUTH OR NORTHWARD OF THE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TRACK OCCURS. A WARM DRAW ALOFT MAY PRODUCE A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN/DEPENDING ON SFC TEMPS IF THEY ARE HELD AT 32 OR COLDER BY EVAPO-COOLING PROCESSES/ FROM FAIRFIELD IA... TO MONMOUTH IL AND SOUTHWARD BY MON EVENING. EVENTUAL SFC LATENT HEAT RELEASE MAY SWING SFC TEMPS A DEGREE ABOVE FREEZING FOR AWHILE AS WELL MON EVENING. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE A MIX OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN IN THESE SOUTHERN AREAS. IF MID LAYERS TEMPORARILY DRY OUT AGAIN...MUCH OF THE CWA MAY BE PRONE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE MON NIGHT AN DEARLY TUE MORNING...BEFORE SOME WRAP AROUND MID LAYER MOISTURE PRODUCES ICE NUCLEI AGAIN FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES INTO TUE EVENING. LITTLE/MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS EXPECTED ON TUE AFTER 12Z. TUE HIGHS OF UPPER 20S TO LOW/MID 30S TO OCCUR LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY TUE...BEFORE COOL LLVL CONVEYOR IN-WRAPS FROM THE NORTHWEST BY MID AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 wow this would be the third miss to the sw due to track or simple getting sheared to sh/\t. this block is killing us. It's either too strong or moves away just enough to get us on the warm side. God only knows what happens with the xmas storm....I could see it skirting under us and blowing up along the coast or bending up to the lakes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 wow this would be the third miss to the sw due to track or simple getting sheared to sh/\t. this block is killing us. It's either too strong or moves away just enough to get us on the warm side. God only knows what happens with the xmas storm....I could see it skirting under us and blowing up along the coast or bending up to the lakes... Definitely getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I hear you man. This should be firmly over with though by the 1st week of Jan at the latest. Could ofcourse catch a break between now and then and may even have to deal with some torching for a bit but it will be worth getting rid of this status quo. I have not totally given up on this YET but the writing is on the wall. Geez if torching is the case I almost dont want to see that happen. Have a nice snowpack outside, dont want to see it go away. But I do want big snows, so then I guess I do want the block gone. Idk, I guess Im greedy lol Do you really see the 18z NAM panning out as shown for here? Looks ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 mpx doing a nice disco and model summary THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION ZONE ON SUNDAY EVENING DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL DEFINED...WITH IT BEING RELATIVELY CLOSE IN TIME TO THE STRONGER DEVELOPMENTS OVER THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY. STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SAID DEVELOPMENTS. THE EC AND GFS STILL FORECASTING A STRONG UPPER JET AND 250 MB OF 150-160 KNOTS AND THE WAVE THAT WILL BRING THE STRONG FORCING IS STILL OFF SHORE. THE ECMWF AND NAM ARE PLACING MORE EMPHASIS ON MID LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER TO THE NW AND SLOWER...WHILE STILL BRINGING SIG WARM ADVECTION AND QG CONV ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT..THE GEM...ARE A BIT FASTER AND TAKE THE MID LEVEL LOW ON AN ESE TRACK FROM WEST CENTRAL MN INTO SW WISCONSIN. THE SREF HAS BEEN TRENDING NW BUT CLOSE TO THE GFS. THE GFS/SREF WOULD HAVE THE SNOW BAND FROM WEST CENTRAL MN TOWARD THE MSP AREA INTO WEST CENTRAL WI...WHILE THE EC/NAM WOULD BE NORTH...MORE OVER CENTRAL MN. TAKING A LOOK AT THE CIPS ANALOGS THERE HAS BEEN A MATCH AT THE TOP OF THE LIST THE LAST COUPLE OF CYCLES../ A JAN 2000 EVENT/ THAN PRODUCED A SNOW BAND VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS/SREF. THE ACTUAL AVERAGE COOP SNOW TOTALS FOR ALL 15 ANALOGS SHOWED A GENERAL COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN MN/WEST CENTRAL AREA. ANOTHER CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY IS THE GEFS PW ANOMALY CHARTS. TI IS NOW SHOWING A PLUME OF HIGHER VALUES INTO IA FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE THE THURSDAY SYSTEM. THIS IS YIELDING NEAR ONE HALF INCH IN BOTH CASES. A VERY SIMILAR TRAJECTORY TO THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO AFFECT US. WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE ELECTED TO STILL HOLD OFF ON THE WATCH. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE DECENT CHANCE OF 6 INCH AMOUNTS OVER A LARGE AREA. ANOTHER CYCLE SHOULD GIVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION TONIGHT. IF TRENDS HOLD FOR A SPECIFIC AREA...THEN IT SEEMS THAT AT LEAST SOME 10 INCH AMOUNTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 MSP hasn't even hit their average of a 45.6" season since '03-'04. madison and much of wisconsin had an incredible few years during that time. DTW outsnowed MSP by 66 inches from 2002-03 thru 2009-10, well against climo. But MSP is well on the way to making up ground this winter so far lol (34.0" vs 7.9") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 DTX on Tuesday MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE 12Z CYCLE CONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION IN THE DETAILS OF THIS RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE FEATURE, AS WOULD BE EXPECTED, IN TERMS OF THE TRACK, STRENGTH, AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS A LITTLE MORE APPEALING SINCE IT HAS BEEN TRENDING SLOWER AND TOOK ANOTHER STEP IN THAT DIRECTION TODAY. THE LOOK OF ITS SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS PREFERRED BY 12Z TUESDAY OVER THE VERY BROAD AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS UNDER THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. REGARDLESS OF HOW THAT TURNS OUT, THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE SUPPLY OF GULF MODIFIED AIR AVAILABLE TO THE WAVE BASED ON DEPICTIONS OF SYSTEM RELATIVE WINDS. THIS FEEDS A SOLID 2 TO 3 G/KG SPECIFIC HUMIDITY INTO THE PATTERN OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN, PROVIDED THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE WAVE REMAINS TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENT. DUE TO THE LINGERING TIMING AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THIS PACKAGE WILL MAINTAIN A CONSERVATIVE 1 TO 2 INCH ACCUMULATION OVER SE MICHIGAN BUT ACKNOWLEDGE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE SHOULD A STRAIGHT GFS SOLUTION VERIFY FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Geez if torching is the case I almost dont want to see that happen. Have a nice snowpack outside, dont want to see it go away. But I do want big snows, so then I guess I do want the block gone. Idk, I guess Im greedy lol Do you really see the 18z NAM panning out as shown for here? Looks ridiculous. It is possible as baro pointed out. All options are still on the table including that. We have seen this already play out though and thus my comments about the writing on the wall. Tomorrows 12z should for sure give us a answer. perhaps even the 00z runs will. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 For the folks further east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 It is possible as baro pointed out. All options are still on the table including that. We have seen this already play out though and thus my comments about the writing on the wall. Tomorrows 12z should for sure give us a answer. perhaps even the 00z runs will. We'll see. 18Z GFS tries to show some NAM type features including some convective snow across the Dakotas, but I find the GFS solutions a tad more realistic than the NAM's depiction of a dumping followed by instant weakening. UK has a similar solution to NAM though but for a different reason and I think it may be catching on to much more dry air over the Great Lakes underneath the eastern trough. As that trough slides east it will aid in even more subsidence and drying over the Lakes/Ohio. Nonetheless, with the decent moisture feed from the S, if I were NWS actually forecasting this I would lean a tad more GFS in its eastward displacement of the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 [ This is SREF probs of dendritic growth, not the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 This is SREF probs of dendritic growth, not the GFS. lol ya I know, I was going to put up an image of the 18z GFS qpf from twister data but it was only out to 60 hours at the time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Here it is lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 ND first to loft up a winter storm watch. Thinking parts of MN will follow suite after 0Z guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 ND first to loft up a winter storm watch. Thinking parts of MN will follow suite after 0Z guidance. LOT will probably issue a WWA sometime tomorrow, dont see us reaching warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 18Z GFS tries to show some NAM type features including some convective snow across the Dakotas, but I find the GFS solutions a tad more realistic than the NAM's depiction of a dumping followed by instant weakening. UK has a similar solution to NAM though but for a different reason and I think it may be catching on to much more dry air over the Great Lakes underneath the eastern trough. As that trough slides east it will aid in even more subsidence and drying over the Lakes/Ohio. Nonetheless, with the decent moisture feed from the S, if I were NWS actually forecasting this I will lean a tad more GFS in its eastward displacement of the precip shield. Guess i am still a bit spooked considering how quick the dome storm fell apart. Plus i do recall a couple of other systems in years past pulling that. They mature very quick and then crap out just as quick if not quicker as they try to come east and hit the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Guess i am still a bit spooked considering how quick the dome storm fell apart. Plus i do recall a couple of other systems in years past pulling that. They mature very quick and then crap out just as quick if not quicker as they try to come east and hit the block. Yeah it is certainly a consideration. NAM solution is prolly max intensity this system could possibly hit just from a potential energy standpoint/IPV thinking. Even then, I think at least some light snow will make it east even with the block. Tough call for local NWS offices, I think from a probability standpoint currently they have to go with a less volatile solution even though the more volatile solution (NAM) may verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOT will probably issue a WWA sometime tomorrow, dont see us reaching warning criteria. Yeah I agree, I think WWA is likely but definitely not warning criteria, especially with a wet snow that won't be a fast accumulator. But you never know, convective potential can always change things. Could get some heavy bursts with the last second warning going out after the 6 inches is either about to or already verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 AND the Christmas storm remains a miss to my south. Kind of a "screw you, central Ohio" run from the GFS there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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