Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 My usual early call is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 A lot of these models seem to have the bulk of precip pointing straight towards central IND again I'm not saying we're out of it but the trends are a bit concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 +1 Told myself I will not get emotionally involved with this one too much until at least tomorrow.. So fail.. Now there is a possible storm 2 late week Windsor is great stuff, honestly I actually prefer it over the expensive stuff like Crown. Glad to hear someone else agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 My usual early call is in place. What is your early call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm not saying we're out of it but the trends are a bit concerning. Time to spread the wealth north of the IN/MI border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 What is your early call? dab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 my early call for Ohio is on my blog. Sorry it is in Lamens terms and not wx terms my family dont understand a damn thing im saying when I mention vorts or digging etc lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 dab dab? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 dab? dusting at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 dab? Dusting at best. Hoosier doesn't like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 dusting at best I'd think its early to throw the dusting at best call out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 dusting at best Dusting at best. Hoosier doesn't like it. Ah thanks, I am not up on my forum board acronyms I guess. My quick google search yielded potentials including: digital audio broadcasting, flatfish, KDAB (Dayton Beach International), Departmental Appeals Board, and dab pumps (whatever those are). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'd think its early to throw the dusting at best call out... I'm sure the day we have a legit threat within 24hrs and it has been consistent, i'll change my tune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Ah thanks, I am not up on my forum board acronyms I guess. My quick google search yielded potentials including: digital audio broadcasting, flatfish, KDAB (Dayton Beach International), Departmental Appeals Board, and dab pumps (whatever those are). Dab pumps sounds like some kind of womens shoes lol. But come on Hoosier if you get a dusting that means I get a dusting. Just follow the GFS keep hope alive!!! HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 When does thing thing come into the west for a full sample? Should be interesting to see if the models show it getting stronger. Grand Rapids AFD said 2 days ago that there is a possibility that the models could be too weak with it. Yeah good point, and as I mentioned in the beginning of the thread, the eventual strength and amplitude of the wave as it ejects into the plains is key to both where this system tracks and its intensity as the baroclinic zone in the low levels is pretty ridiculous. Lots of potential energy and these "disturbances" can grow rapidly with time. The NAM is an example of what a slightly more intact wave can do when it interacts with the low level baro zone. Early GFS runs were an example as well...and some of the ensembles show the potential as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 i made a quick 03Z sref mean 84hr crappy map with 24hr total qpf...looks like it's holding the same as previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 i made a quick 03Z sref mean 84hr crappy map with 24hr total qpf...looks like it's holding the same as previous runs Prins, nice work with GEMPAK for a non-met (or a met). You need to get this stuff on a website stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Prins, nice work with GEMPAK for a non-met (or a met). You need to get this stuff on a website stat. thanks, non-met...working on the website Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 thanks, non-met...working on the website I meant that in terms of good work for a non-met or a met alike regarding GEMPAK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 New SREFS has a nice .25-.5 swath of qpf from S. MN, NE IA, C, S WI, and N. IL. Also looks good for N. IN and NE. OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I meant that in terms of good work for a non-met or a met alike regarding GEMPAK. sorry, dumb me...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 New SREFS has a nice .25-.5 swath of qpf from S. MN, NE IA, C, S WI, and N. IL. Also looks good for N. IN and NE. OH well BOO then. if it is only good for NE Ohio BOO lol. Makes me sick. The technology we have available and cant even get a model that can stay consistent. Nearly all models showed a big hit for CMH and even a lot of the 0z runs, but now I just am sickened. May be time to log off and see what 12z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 well BOO then. if it is only good for NE Ohio BOO lol. Makes me sick. The technology we have available and cant even get a model that can stay consistent. Nearly all models showed a big hit for CMH and even a lot of the 0z runs, but now I just am sickened. May be time to log off and see what 12z brings. Haha Dilly, first thing I thought when you posted this was this thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4032-why-are-models-so-bad/ We had a field day against analog96 in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Wow, I'm dumb lol. I meant NW Ohio not NE Ohio. Here's the link: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/03/images/sref_x24_087s.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Wow, I'm dumb lol. I meant NW Ohio not NE Ohio. Here's the link: http://www.nco.ncep....ef_x24_087s.gif Yea I seen it. Im in central OH. Well the Euro screwed up the EC storm while the GFS had it OTS for a while, so maybe the GFS will nail this one. Damn Europeans anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Haha Dilly, first thing I thought when you posted this was this thread: http://www.americanw...-models-so-bad/ We had a field day against analog96 in this one. Sad part is, he is right. Look at that MW storm last week. Disgusting mess where models were concerned. Euro shows a monster 1888 style for the EC, while the GFS said NO and then next day the Euro takes it OTS. 0z American models all show a big hit for central Ohio tonight,the sref was showing a big hit earlier, and now they are flopping around like a Male nudist on a seesaw. It's sad really. I feel bad for mets. I wanted to be one, but I dont know if I could deal with the critisizm you guys must take when models are acting stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 Sad part is, he is right. Look at that MW storm last week. Disgusting mess where models were concerned. Euro shows a monster 1888 style for the EC, while the GFS said NO and then next day the Euro takes it OTS. 0z American models all show a big hit for central Ohio tonight,the sref was showing a big hit earlier, and now they are flopping around like a Male nudist on a seesaw. It's sad really. I feel bad for mets. I wanted to be one, but I dont know if I could deal with the critisizm you guys must take when models are acting stupid. Read the thread I hope you don't subscribe to Analog96's view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Read the thread I hope you don't subscribe to Analog96's view. didnt read it. Just read the title lol. But as a met you surely cant think models are doing a good job so far this winter? But I'll admit, as bad as I feel they have been, I stay up every night for the 6z runs, and am on the cpu for the 12z's lol. Oh and the 18's and 0's lmao. Let us see what bomb the 6z NAM brings. I say.... 6-10" for MN and hmm the beginnings of a big storm for cmh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 18, 2010 Author Share Posted December 18, 2010 didnt read it. Just read the title lol. But as a met you surely cant think models are doing a good job so far this winter? Let us see what bomb the 6z NAM brings. I say.... 6-10" for MN and hmm the beginnings of a big storm for cmh. It is worth a read sometime. A lot of insight in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 As for my post. How does no one get a laugh out of "Flopping around like a male nudist on a seesaw" jeeze tough crowd tough crowd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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