blue60007 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 9:59 PM, cyclone77 said: wtf? * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM SIX TENTHS AROUND GIBSON CITY ILLINOIS AND FOWLER INDIANA TO ONE AND HALF INCHES NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THERE MAY BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. This stumped me as well :/ Since when are snowfall forecasts in tenths? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 9:59 PM, cyclone77 said: wtf? * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE FROM SIX TENTHS AROUND GIBSON CITY ILLINOIS AND FOWLER INDIANA TO ONE AND HALF INCHES NEAR THE WISCONSIN BORDER. THERE MAY BE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION. The wording on that advisory needs revision... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 18z RGEM is very wet. It also brings the precip pretty far northeast...it tried to do that last time and it didn't work out well, and considering the other models, it might be too aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:01 PM, blue60007 said: This stumped me as well :/ Since when are snowfall forecasts in tenths? Maybe it's an error...if it's not, it's underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 9:59 PM, baum001 said: Lot Call : MONDAY NIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW AND AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. TUESDAY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE... SNOW AND DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. Its WHW working right now..every model is throwing out more than that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 9:59 PM, baum001 said: Lot Call : MONDAY NIGHT SNOW AND PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW AND AREAS OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. TUESDAY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE... SNOW AND DRIZZLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION 40 PERCENT. upper 30's is laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think that forecaster needs a serious ass chewing. That goes against every short-term model there is available. It isn't that Taft guy filling in at the NWS is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:02 PM, Hoosier said: 18z RGEM is very wet. It also brings the precip pretty far northeast...it tried to do that last time and it didn't work out well, and considering the other models, it might be too aggressive. image or link? pretty sure I lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 mpx is saying the heaviest snowfall of 7-9 inches will be in their far northeast counties. i don't know if i buy that completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:06 PM, Hoosier said: upper 30's is laughable Then again, there is a rather significant discrepancy between that and the PFM for various sites in Cook county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:06 PM, Hoosier said: upper 30's is laughable I know, the gfs 2m temps only go above 0c for a short period if that after the snow moves through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:01 PM, blue60007 said: This stumped me as well :/ Since when are snowfall forecasts in tenths? What was the name of the forecaster that wrote the AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:06 PM, cyclone77 said: I think that forecaster needs a serious ass chewing. That goes against every short-term model there is available. It isn't that Taft guy filling in at the NWS is it? Even he isn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:06 PM, cyclone77 said: I think that forecaster needs a serious ass chewing. That goes against every short-term model there is available. It isn't that Taft guy filling in at the NWS is it? He is in Florida right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:09 PM, patrick7032 said: What was the name of the forecaster that wrote the AFD? he goes by the name of WHW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:08 PM, Thundersnow12 said: talking to Gino now about it....I will put it cleanly..he isn't happy and said he will have to clean it up tonight. Is Gino okay with you sharing that info here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:11 PM, Thundersnow12 said: he goes by the name of WHW That might be a SCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Oh wow....LMFAO!!!! WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM ADVISORY FOR MONDAY NIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE MAY BE MANY SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS. SO WE EXPECT THE SNOW WILL OCCUR BUT THERE MAY BE AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. IT IS BECAUSE OF THE FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW MIXTURE THAT WE WILL ISSUE THE ADVISORY. BECAUSE OF THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:09 PM, BeastFromtheEast said: I know, the gfs 2m temps only go above 0c for a short period if that after the snow moves through.. MOS is pretty warm, especially MET, but it definitely seems overdone given expected clouds and fresh snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 We all know this is a 1-4 inch event for LOT anyways, no sense tearing the AFD apart, it wasn't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:09 PM, Hoosier said: Then again, there is a rather significant discrepancy between that and the PFM for various sites in Cook county. Still looking good wrt my call from earlier, but after looking at BUFKIT profiles again, I'm fairly convinced there will be some minor ice accumulation from freezing drizzle after the snow leaves. A saturated layer with temps >-8C and decent omega sticks around for quite a while after the main snow band leaves. May see some snow grains mix in from time to time. RFD: 3" snow, .05 to .10" ice ORD: 2" snow, .05 to .10" ice DVN: 1.5" snow, .10" ice -- This station is tough, they will be right near the edge of the heavier bands, so places almost immediately north may see 3+ inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:07 PM, Thundersnow12 said: image or link? pretty sure I lost it. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:16 PM, csnavywx said: Still looking good wrt my call from earlier, but after looking at BUFKIT profiles again, I'm fairly convinced there will be some minor ice accumulation from freezing drizzle after the snow leaves. A saturated layer with temps >-8C and decent omega sticks around for quite a while after the main snow band leaves. May see some snow grains mix in from time to time. RFD: 3" snow, .05 to .10" ice ORD: 2" snow, .05 to .10" ice DVN: 1.5" snow, .10" ice -- This station is tough, they will be right near the edge of the heavier bands, so places almost immediately north may see 3+ inches. That looks like a pretty good forecast right there. Wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated 4-5" bands sneak in there somewhere. I'd guess the Dekalb/Aurora zone looks best right now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 some OT to let you guys know if you haven't seen it but 18z GFS rick rolls IA/IL with ALOT of snow with the xmas event. ok back to the first system, like a 2-4" call for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:23 PM, Thundersnow12 said: some OT to let you guys know if you haven't seen it but 18z GFS rick rolls IA/IL with ALOT of snow with the xmas event. ok back to the first system, like a 2-4" call for this area. Yeat the DVN STL ILX LOT IWX and IND areas would get crushed....especially ILX north to LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick7032 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:28 PM, patrick7032 said: Yeat the DVN STL ILX LOT IWX and IND areas would get crushed....especially ILX north to LOT. With the second system that is....but it is only one run that ramped up so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like Madison stands to get a few inches at least, and thermal profiles look like pure snow despite the NWS having ice in the forecast. Should be better than that last bust, it was already looking crappy the day before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 9:47 PM, Hoosier said: I think it's WHW. Bad writer doesn't necessarily equal bad forecaster... I don't know about the forecasting abilities but the sentence structure/overall presentation is a bit painful to read. He is absolutely not a bad forecaster...I would argue that I learned the most from him out of all the forecasters there this summer...he is incredibly sharp when it comes to the meteorology and to computer programming/modeling...just because the AFD doesn't say what people want it to say doesn't mean he's the worst forecaster there...my Lord... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:52 PM, tornadotony said: He is absolutely not a bad forecaster...I would argue that I learned the most from him out of all the forecasters there this summer...he is incredibly sharp when it comes to the meteorology and to computer programming/modeling...just because the AFD doesn't say what people want it to say doesn't mean he's the worst forecaster there...my Lord... the afd was fine anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 On 12/19/2010 at 10:29 PM, patrick7032 said: With the second system that is....but it is only one run that ramped up so. it's been more than 1 run that's hit the ILX hard, but this might be the first one that had LOT in the crush zone... but that's discussion for that storm's thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.