Isotherm Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 this is the coldest start to November since 1879...On 11/9/1879 the temperature rose to 68 and 76 on the 11th..That winter was mild... Something that's definitely an option for this winter Unc. I know the sample size is too small for the Oct/Nov snowfall --> winter correlation, but just in my personal opinion, I don't get a good feeling when we have a significant snow this early in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The folks back home in Colts Neck say they still have a few inches on the ground. Pretty impressive, day 4 with snow on the ground in November. Same here, still hanging on to a few inches...surprisingly, temp really bottomed out last night at 33, probably froze up the snow into a solid ice block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Something that's definitely an option for this winter Unc. I know the sample size is too small for the Oct/Nov snowfall --> winter correlation, but just in my personal opinion, I don't get a good feeling when we have a significant snow this early in the season. yea me too...A snowy November (not this early) usually means December won't see much snowfall...But it doesn't mean the winter on the whole won't have above average snowfall...the 1979-80 analog had the earliest snow flakes on record but the winter was a dud...This year has greater early season blocking so the outcome might be different... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Something that's definitely an option for this winter Unc. I know the sample size is too small for the Oct/Nov snowfall --> winter correlation, but just in my personal opinion, I don't get a good feeling when we have a significant snow this early in the season. Along with that we have a stratospheric cooling and a + AO signal as well as more poor developments on other facets with the ENSO and NAO forecasts through the long range. Almost eerily similar to last years developments (obviously not as extreme with the stratosphere or even with the lack of blocking and terrible pattern at the poles)....I remember when you and I called off winter through Christmas before it even started. Lets hope we don't get there again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 Check out the ridging into the Davis Straight and the Arctic on the 12z GEFS during Thanksgiving. This would not be a bad pattern by any means: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The Canadian is still developing a big upper level trough in the Northeast with plenty of rain and a surface low tucked in just off the MA coast as the (sloppy) phase is still occurring over the OV. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 Check out the ridging into the Davis Straight and the Arctic on the 12z GEFS during Thanksgiving. This would not be a bad pattern by any means: FWIW the Raleigh WX teleconnection indicies for the 12z GEFS confirm a west based -NAO forming around the Thanksgiving timeframe. 12z GEFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 12z Euro has cut-off low at 216hr -240hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 12z Euro has cut-off low at 216hr -240hr: Man, cold air is just 100s of miles away. CONUS is torching in those frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 12z Euro looks absolutely miserable in the long-range. 498dm vortex north of Labrador with a massive +NAO and extremely fast jet over Canada. No cold air anywhere south of Labrador, and the main PV is on the other side of the globe over in Siberia with -30C 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 12z Euro looks absolutely miserable in the long-range. 498dm vortex north of Labrador with a massive +NAO and extremely fast jet over Canada. No cold air anywhere south of Labrador, and the main PV is on the other side of the globe over in Siberia with -30C 850s. Welcome news for those with no heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Not hard to find the fronts today. 18Z Temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 OT, but some pretty neat LES going on downwind of the Great Salt Lake today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 The 12z ECMWF was indeed a pretty bad run for cold in the east. Looks way different than the GFS. Let's see what the ECM ENS show for the pattern as well as the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The 12z ECMWF was indeed a pretty bad run for cold in the east. Looks way different than the GFS. Let's see what the ECM ENS show for the pattern as well as the 18z GFS. Clearly a huge 18z GFS run today. The entire early winter season is in trouble. Time to be very, very concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Clearly a huge 18z GFS run today. The entire early winter season is in trouble. Time to be very, very concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Clearly a huge 18z GFS run today. The entire early winter season is in trouble. Time to be very, very concerned. I sense this post is dripping in sarcasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 Clearly a huge 18z GFS run today. The entire early winter season is in trouble. Time to be very, very concerned. The sarcasm is quite unnecessary. Looking for trends with the teleconnection indicies in the models and their ensembles is one tool for long range forecasting. It doesn't have many implications for the winter as a whole, but it might have some implications for the pattern over the next 1-2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 12z Euro looks absolutely miserable in the long-range. 498dm vortex north of Labrador with a massive +NAO and extremely fast jet over Canada. No cold air anywhere south of Labrador, and the main PV is on the other side of the globe over in Siberia with -30C 850s. Strongly disagree. I think it looks hideously repulsive, not miserable. What are you thinking. D 8-10 progg looks like last year all over again. Davis Straits neg height anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 12z gefs has the ao and nao nosediving in the long range. This has been happening for several runs. Way different than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Along with that we have a stratospheric cooling and a + AO signal as well as more poor developments on other facets with the ENSO and NAO forecasts through the long range. Almost eerily similar to last years developments (obviously not as extreme with the stratosphere or even with the lack of blocking and terrible pattern at the poles)....I remember when you and I called off winter through Christmas before it even started. Lets hope we don't get there again. Yeah I'm hoping we see some indication of changes in the stratosphere over the coming weeks. I doubt we'll see it as bad as last year, but who knows, it could be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The sarcasm is quite unnecessary. Looking for trends with the teleconnection indicies in the models and their ensembles is one tool for long range forecasting. It doesn't have many implications for the winter as a whole, but it might have some implications for the pattern over the next 1-2 weeks. Mr. Martin was correct. I think you need to take a step back and consider where we are in terms of climo and what just happened around here on Wednesday. Also, when looking at anomaly maps and discussing "one" static snapshot of a 6-10 anomaly map, you should perhaps post an animation of the anomalies to get a better picture of overall flow pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Man, cold air is just 100s of miles away. CONUS is torching in those frames. Oh yeah, I'm sure I'll be ready to go out in my shorts with those +1C 850s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 12z gefs has the ao and nao nosediving in the long range. This has been happening for several runs. Way different than the Euro. For whatever reason, there are many times when the GEFS in the long range can actually school the Euro out 10 days and beyond. For some reason when it gets to 7 or 8 days out, the GFS loses to the Euro. Just an observation I've noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The sarcasm is quite unnecessary. Looking for trends with the teleconnection indicies in the models and their ensembles is one tool for long range forecasting. It doesn't have many implications for the winter as a whole, but it might have some implications for the pattern over the next 1-2 weeks. Its november my man...this early season snow has gotten everyone into it early...my normal snowfall for november is a trace...relax everyone...rest of november looks mild...december will be our next opportunity....nzucker is hitting the panic button and stirring up the masses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I have also noticed this on many occasions. I guess when you get that far out in time it is just 50/50 or less luck anyway, so either model can have the right answer, with no real advantage to either, but as you say, I have actually noticed on countless occasions that the GEFS tends to do better in the long range, but yes, when you get closer in, the higher resolution of the ECMWF gains the advantage. For whatever reason, there are many times when the GEFS in the long range can actually school the Euro out 10 days and beyond. For some reason when it gets to 7 or 8 days out, the GFS loses to the Euro. Just an observation I've noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Strongly disagree. I think it looks hideously repulsive, not miserable. What are you thinking. D 8-10 progg looks like last year all over again. Davis Straits neg height anomaly. I do think the maps are suggesting a pattern change towards early December: such an amplified Aleutian ridge connecting with the Siberia block is going to start warming the stratosphere as well as promoting cold northerly flow into Canada. Remember, the Aleutian ridge pattern is what kept us cold in early January 2011 during that epic winter after the 12/26 Boxing Day blizzard blew up the strong -NAO block. We didn't regain the NAO until the Miller B mid-month, but we still have 4-6" of snow from the 1/7 Norlun. Thus, the Aleutian ridge can be key if it becomes poleward and brings the cold air down. The 12z ECM was also separate from the rest of guidance in not seeing a drop in the NAO. The GEFS have a slightly negative NAO developing while the 12z ECM has a large vortex over Labrador and up towards the Davis Strait. Even the Euro, however, has a slight ridge over northern Greenland that may amplify and force that vortex further south into a 50/50 low position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Big coastal cutoff system on the gfs appears around the 20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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