psv88 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 I think it was the GGEM that actually had the first signal ... although I may be mistaken. The GGEM had it and then lost it completely, then had it coming ashore in northern Maine. The Euro caught on and held steady with a NJ landfall. Last post of the day. Board's loss... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Many GEFS members also showing a cutoff low and potential amplification/surface low deepening off the NE Coast at Day 10. With another strong positive anomaly showing up north of New England at Day 10, this period needs to be watched. http://www.meteo.psu...RS_12z/f240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 The GGEM had it and then lost it completely, then had it coming ashore in northern Maine. The Euro caught on and held steady with a NJ landfall. Last post of the day. Board's loss... GGEM had it the Sunday prior 10/21/12..had it for a couple runs then lost it for a run or two out to sea... Believe the Euro had it starting that Monday, with a DELMARVA landfall, then made one adjustment north. Amazing. - On the other hand, models were not that great with this past snowstorm. We were supposed to get mostly rain and instead got 8 inches of snow with little to no warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 The Day 10 Euro just has another basic event around here with tropical moisture phasing with a Central US trough, getting caught under blocking to the north and forming a big ULL over the Northeast. Not what you want to see on the euro right now, even though its just a signal at this point. The weenie in me wants to see it but im talking about normal peeps.. The blocking goes nuts up north, the tropical connection, the 1040mb high, the cutoff trough. Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Not what you want to see on the euro right now, even though its just a signal at this point. The weenie in me wants to see it but im talking about normal peeps.. The blocking goes nuts up north, the tropical connection, the 1040mb high, the cutoff trough. Ouch So the potential is rather ridiculous.. Obviously fantasy right now, but what if? Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Sandy is one of the few events that I recall models detecting beyond the D7 range. 93 superstorm I believe was detected by models up to 8 days ahead of time. The monster events tend to show up early it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 So the potential is rather ridiculous.. Obviously fantasy right now, but what if? Right? Yeah its definitely fantasy atm. But who really knows whats going on in this weather pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Amazing that we had a similar kick in the face snow event after our other monster (dec 92) I will never forget thinking the same thing then (even though i was 10) Mega coastal damage followed by snow. (more this time) But still remarkable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 12z Euro Ensembles. A pattern with a GOA trough and a west to east ridge across Canada, doesn't support major phasing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 Interesting to see the locallized effects of the few inches of snowpack remaining in Monmouth/Ocean Counties. Temps right now slightly colder there compared to surrounding towns, and NWS forecast lows tonights suggest 30-31F in the snow cover area, cooler than the rest of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 9, 2012 Share Posted November 9, 2012 18z GFS is still showing a potential Thanksgiving storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I don't think we've broken our -NAO streak yet. With the way things look we could have some more early season storm threats into December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 12z Euro Ensembles. A pattern with a GOA trough and a west to east ridge across Canada, doesn't support major phasing event. Whatever shortwave gets trapped under the block in Quebec will phase with whatever other shortwave gets trapped under the block in Quebec. All this while there's a 1040mb high over Northern Maine. One of the disturbances might even be of Tropical Atlantic origin meaning it will be juiced. Fun pattern. I hope it stays offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I don't think we've broken our -NAO streak yet. With the way things look we could have some more early season storm threats into December I think the potential development of the poleward Aleutian high and associated stratospheric warming over Asia, combined with a declining NAO, will put us back in an interesting pattern post 11/20. In the meantime, it should be pretty quiet around here, but the really mild weather is only Sunday-Tuesday. Tomorrow looks near average with morning lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid 50s for Westchester. We then see a sharp cooldown mid week with highs Wednesday and Thursday in the lower 50s, which is actually a few ticks below average. I'm pretty sure November finishes below normal, and it could be significantly so if the last week is cold. Average highs on Thanksgiving are still 50F or so here in Westchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 In the meantime, it should be pretty quiet around here, but the really mild weather is only Sunday-Tuesday. Tomorrow looks near average with morning lows in the mid 30s and highs in the mid 50s for Westchester. We then see a sharp cooldown mid week with highs Wednesday and Thursday in the lower 50s, which is actually a few ticks below average. I'm pretty sure November finishes below normal, and it could be significantly so if the last week is cold. Average highs on Thanksgiving are still 50F or so here in Westchester. Agree. I had thought that October would be our first neg departure month in awhile, but the Northeast didn't get into the deep cold that the Mid-west/OH Valley/Lakes saw for the much of the month. November will almost certainly finish below normal temp wise IMO. Next week will be warm, but we're only looking at a few days of "torch" weather. Late November looks seasonable to me right now. The progged blocking is a bit too far away to be seen as real at this point. If there is in fact a stratospheric warming event that can propagate downward, then our chances for a -AO/NAO December increase significantly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 0z GGEM 228hr Not again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Waiting for the EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMCNA_0z/cmcloop.html Loop this through. This is eerily similar to sandy..Rut roh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The pattern being advertised aloft is not a dead similarity to Sandy but it essentially accomplishes the same basic things if the models are correct with their idea of having the strong blocking high to the north. The difference is that this feature is far less anomalous as modeled than the one which forced Sandy into our area. During Sandy we saw one of the most incredible NF blocks which built in from the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Day 8-10 big time cutoff over the east with tropical connections. Euro doesn't really develop a tropical low but if it does look out. We have seen alot of cutoff stuff this fall so we need to watch this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Yes, and better yet, at 240 hrs it has not moved. 0z GGEM 228hr Not again: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 6z GFS is all over the pre-Thanksgiving storm also. And if the model is correct with the placement of the low and the high pressure, this would likely be snow, not rain. This looks eerily similar to the placement of the low and the high with the previous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 just had a sprinkle from the warm front moving through...I bet we get close to 70 before the next cold front...The average November max is 70...last year we hit 70 in November...65 in 2010... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Uhhhh... has anyone taken a look at the latest GFS? Can you say "snowstorm?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I do not see a snowstorm on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 Me neither.. but look at that blocking to the north towards the end of the run. The thanksgiving and beyond timeframe looks pretty interesting IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The folks back home in Colts Neck say they still have a few inches on the ground. Pretty impressive, day 4 with snow on the ground in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 this is the coldest start to November since 1879...On 11/9/1879 the temperature rose to 68 and 76 on the 11th..That winter was mild... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 New GFS (12Z) still shows possibility of slow-moving Thanksgiving snowstorm from Chicago to East Coast. Bears watching. pic.twitter.com/ywG5ZhJa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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