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November 2012 Observations and Discussions


Snow_Miser

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I made it to 41.9F in Dobbs Ferry today after a low of 28.7F. Definitely chilly for early November though I had to go to school so I was inside most of the day. Thank god the students weren't there though, was a bit more relaxing than usual.

Dropped to 18.7* IMBY last night... Cant remember it this cold this early..

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I see signs of a potent Nor'easter in our area focused around Tuesday, November 20. I have been watching this potential for several days already and the signals keep getting stronger each day. This may also be a slow moving storm that could last at least two days. I believe a peice of energy will drop down from Canada and combine with a peice of energy coming out of the Caribbean, forming a low off of about Cape Hatteras that will then move to offshore New Jersey and stall out, much as the previous two big storms did. I am focused on November 20, give or take a day or so.

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While we have a warm up coming, this will be the coldest start to the month of November that

we have seen in some time. Central Park is running -8.9 through the first 8 days of the month.

Yeah, looks like KNYC recorded 3 consecutive double digit negative days. When was the last time that happened? I'd have to think this is the coldest opening to November since 2002 or 2000.

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Yeah, looks like KNYC recorded 3 consecutive double digit negative days. When was the last time that happened? I'd have to think this is the coldest opening to November since 2002 or 2000.

The first 8 day period of November is the coldest since 1879 at Central Park.

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Could we actually see a negative departure month? The fact that we're starting so low will definitely help with the upcoming warm spell. Today should be seasonable and tomorrow maybe a bit above. Sun-Tues is the big warm up with highs approaching 70F, very warm lows as well, then more seasonable by Wednesday-Friday.

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The Day 10 Euro just has another basic event around here with tropical moisture phasing with a Central US trough, getting caught under blocking to the north and forming a big ULL over the Northeast.

Since when has the Euro nailed an event this far out...

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Since when has the Euro nailed an event this far out...

Two weeks ago with Hurricane Sandy. I was actually just going over a piece I wrote on the hurricane 10 days prior to it occurring. Pretty cool because the models performed very well with a high impact system at a very long lead time.

What catches the long range forecasters eye around Day 5-7 is the forecast development of a tropical system in the Caribbean, which could drift north into the Southeast Atlantic by Day 7. Such a development doesn’t seem overly concerning at first — but the mid and upper air pattern rings some serious alarms for long range forecasters almost immediately. Although variance at this range is a major factor — forecast models don’t usually get a good grip on the pattern for several more cycles — the blocking adds an extra level of intrigue to the pattern development. Should the tropical system head north and not east (also a big question mark) it could be drawn into a phase with the large upper level trough and aforementioned cold front over the Eastern US. We saw some very dramatic model solutions today, including the GFS/Canadian/Euro indicating large surface lows with potential significant impact to the Northeast US.

All in all, much of that remains fantasy (hence the term “fantasy land” for this time frame on forecast models) given the degree of uncertainty in the pattern. That being said, the high amplitude pattern suggests that with the right timing, the event could become a high impact one for our forecast area.

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Two weeks ago with Hurricane Sandy. I was actually just going over a piece I wrote on the hurricane 10 days prior to it occurring. Pretty cool because the models performed very well with a high impact system at a very long lead time.

I know i was being sarcastic. The Euro was incredible with Sandy.

Funny that im still five posted 4 months later, lol.

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