Zir0b Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yes, I agree with this statement. Even though the model verbatum is displaying warm layers, there is NO WAY that there will be warm layers with a 981mb 100 miles off shore of Toms River, tracking to Eastern Long Island. No way. This would put near blizzard conditions in NW NJ. It's early November man...more likely to be a cold rain except for the highest elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Thank you for the clarrification. I agree completely. Yeah yeah, not really worried about Warren/Sussex here, not as modeled on the GFS, anyway. My comment was more about less elevated inland areas. My biggest concern for inland isn't the snow - it's the continued cold/wet regime for areas still without power. My house temp bottomed out at 55.7 before getting power back on Thursday night. It can only be worse for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 The GGEM looks like the GFS in terms of the evolution of the precipitation types, maybe a little bit quicker with the changeover back to rain, but it has the same general idea as the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12z UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 12z UKMET Looks a bit east of the 00z UKMET. Looks to directly pass over the BM if you extrapolate hour 120 to hour 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Time for a thread dedicated to this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The GFS would result in snow more southeast than the model shows if that exact scenario unfolds, even in early-mid November. That is one hell of a system and is nearly vertically stacked, the vertically stacked system just off NJ is always one for our area where the rain/snow line often winds up too far northwest on the models, my guess is areas along a Paramus-Passaic-Union line would see snow in that setup at some point and undoubtedly if this was 2-3 weeks from now I'd be saying we're snowing into the Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Time for a thread dedicated to this storm? You read my mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 You read my mind! I'll start the thread up. I'll post a link to it when I'm finished starting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 I started it up here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37636-potential-storm-117-118/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Ugh... I guess I should prepare my generator again smh.. Pretty much every single model is snowing heavily IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 When was the last time that we saw two phasing events only about a week apart? We definitely don't need gale or storm force wind conditions now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 When was the last time that we saw two phasing events only about a week apart? We definitely don't need gale or storm force wind conditions now. February 2010... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 This is exactly what I am thinking. The models seem to not catch up on the dynamics fully until we are within 72 hrs or so, when we have systems such as this. The GFS would result in snow more southeast than the model shows if that exact scenario unfolds, even in early-mid November. That is one hell of a system and is nearly vertically stacked, the vertically stacked system just off NJ is always one for our area where the rain/snow line often winds up too far northwest on the models, my guess is areas along a Paramus-Passaic-Union line would see snow in that setup at some point and undoubtedly if this was 2-3 weeks from now I'd be saying we're snowing into the Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 February 2010... Thanks, that's what I was thinking with the record breaking -AO that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 We also need to remember that the EC ensemble mean was further off shore as well this morning. I would expect the Euro to come in ever so slightly further out to sea, probably around 75 miles off shore, not as much as the other models, but just a bit further off shore, allowing a bit more cold air to work in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 There's a storm thread now guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Up in Sussex County here, there ate still roads closed due to trees down. This would be horrible. Still no power here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I know. Up in Sussex County here, there ate still roads closed due to trees down. This would be horrible. Still no power here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yeah yeah, not really worried about Warren/Sussex here, not as modeled on the GFS, anyway. My comment was more about less elevated inland areas. My biggest concern for inland isn't the snow - it's the continued cold/wet regime for areas still without power. My house temp bottomed out at 55.7 before getting power back on Thursday night. It can only be worse for others. my house bottomed out at 45 degrees last night before i abandoned ship. can someone help me w/ timing? I have an adjustor coming at 11AM on WED to assess the damage to my house/car/property --- and can't get stuck away from my wife/1 year old. what a week. this is just more whipped cream on sh*t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Down to 23 F at Upton and 19 F at Westhampton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Statement as of 8:06 am EDT on November 06, 2012 ... Record low temperature set at Newark NJ... a record low temperature of 27 degrees was set at 512 am at Newark NJ today. This breaks the old record of 29 set in 1951 and 1953. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Down to 23 F at Upton and 19 F at Westhampton... I thought I saw 18 for Westhampton, correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I thought I saw 18 for Westhampton, correct me if I'm wrong. 16 between obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Statement as of 8:06 am EDT on November 06, 2012 ... Record low temperature set at Newark NJ... a record low temperature of 27 degrees was set at 512 am at Newark NJ today. This breaks the old record of 29 set in 1951 and 1953. Very impressive. Looks like they had a light N wind all night which is ideal for the urban areas. Those years of the previous record are also interesting; 1951 has been a decent analog most of this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Very impressive. Looks like they had a light N wind all night which is ideal for the urban areas. Those years of the previous record are also interesting; 1951 has been a decent analog most of this year. I am trying to figure out when was the last time that Newark had back to back months with record lows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 0215 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 34 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 36 SET IN 1934. RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 827 AM EDT TUE NOV 06 2012 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 27 DEGREES WAS SET AT 512 AM AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 29 SET IN 1951 AND 1953. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I am trying to figure out when was the last time that Newark had back to back months with record lows? Was just going to ask that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 ; 1951 has been a decent analog most of this year. if it keeps up look for a major storm in mid December...1953 had a sloppy 2-4" of snow on this date... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 I am trying to figure out when was the last time that Newark had back to back months with record lows? March and April 2001 23 on 3/27/2001 33 on 4/19/2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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