Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The snowfall output on Wright-Weather shows major snow accumulations in Northwest New Jersey, 4-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 morristown sounding: sleet That's still a front end frozen event for the NW Burbs, which I definitely think is a possibility for this system. GGEM out to 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Here's another JB map. Take it for what it's worth: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/264759246019756032/photo/1/large?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=BigJoeBastardi&utm_content=264759246019756032&ref=nf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 This reminds me of last October: how after an early season storm the pattern turned to crap and stayed crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Here's another JB map. Take it for what it's worth: https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/264759246019756032/photo/1/large?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=BigJoeBastardi&utm_content=264759246019756032&ref=nf I'm going to start a pay website that always honks snow. I think it's the easiest way to make money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 This reminds me of last October: how after an early season storm the pattern turned to crap and stayed crap. How? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 This reminds me of last October: how after an early season storm the pattern turned to crap and stayed crap. Not necessarily true. The NW Burbs have had a bunch of early season snow events over the past several years and the resulting winters have been totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 That Bastardi post is borderline apocalyptic...that's nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Congrats Philly on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 How? Tropical system: check. Early season cold system: check. Incoming ridge afterward: check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 NW NJ destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Tropical system: check. Early season cold system: check. Incoming ridge afterward: check. You can't compare this season and last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I actually think this will be our pattern this year. Much different than last year. This reminds me of last October: how after an early season storm the pattern turned to crap and stayed crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Tropical system: check. Early season cold system: check. Incoming ridge afterward: check. The situation up at the polar region is no where even close to that of last year's PV by the Hudson Bay and the +EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 This is a NEG tilted trough .This storm is goin to feedback and deepen . Its goin to create the cold air neccesary so 20 miles off the coastal plain theres the potential for 6 inches of snow. The GFS probably corrects west as we get closer " it almost always does " . My main concern here is along the coast its 40 degrees , 50 MPH NE winds gusts with 2 inches of rain in areas that have no power , limited road access, very little fuel and people at risk of exposure . A moderate snow event is managable , but on the heels of Sandy is scary . You cant knock anymore power out next week or send anymore tankers out to sea to wait out another storm , you will stretch resources to the brink here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I said it just reminds me of it. Not that it's going to be the same. Relax guys this winter won't be as bad as last. Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 I said it just reminds me of it. Not that it's going to be the same. Relax guys this winter won't be as bad as last. Probably. Okay. Thanks for the clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yes, I agree with this statement. Even though the model verbatum is displaying warm layers, there is NO WAY that there will be warm layers with a 981mb 100 miles off shore of Toms River, tracking to Eastern Long Island. No way. This would put near blizzard conditions in NW NJ. NW NJ destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Tropical system: check. Early season cold system: check. Incoming ridge afterward: check. This winter will not resemble anything like last winter . A ridge builds after this yes , it doesnt lock in . just chillax , If you like cold and snow , you will appreciate this winter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 We need to see soundings around 18z Wed. GFS soundings, 12z Wed, show some dry air, in the lower levels: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 This would knock out the refineries too, and in NW NJ we still have trees hanging on power lines everywhere. Put near-blizzard conditions with 6-12 inches of snow on top of that, and well, we have a disaster again. No doubt about it. THis is NOT GOOD! This is a NEG tilted trough .This storm is goin to feedback and deepen . Its goin to create the cold air neccesary so 20 miles off the coastal plain theres the potential for 6 inches of snow. The GFS probably corrects west as we get closer " it almost always does " . My main concern here is along the coast its 40 degrees , 50 MPH NE winds gusts with 2 inches of rain in areas that have no power , limited road access, very little fuel and people at risk of exposure . A moderate snow event is managable , but on the heels of Sandy is scary . You cant knock anymore power out next week or send anymore tankers out to sea to wait out another storm , you will stretch resources to the brink here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Sure taking the model verbatum, but do you really think that with a 981mb low 100 miles off shore that the mid-levels will be warm? I personally doubt it. With a 981mb low 100 miles off shore, you're going to have a heck of a fetch of warm (it's only November) marine air being lifted and moved inland. If you're under that, your mid-levels will be warm. At least until the flow can shift around as the storm gains latitude. Could be a snow-mix-snow scenario, but I'm not sure about wraparound in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 GGEM coming in west and more amplified so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 This winter will not resemble anything like last winter . A ridge builds after this yes , it doesnt lock in . just chillax , If you like cold and snow , you will appreciate this winter . I'm very relaxed. My expectations each year are that of winter 11-12. If I expect a decent year and it busts I'll be very disappointed. I consider each storm we do get a mini miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'm very relaxed. My expectations each year are that of winter 11-12. If I expect a decent year and it busts I'll be very disappointed. I consider each storm we do get a mini miracle Not a bad strategy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Thank you for the input. I am not sure you understand though, I am talking about Northern New Jersey, not NYC or the coast. Here, we are 150 miles inland from the center. My experience with storms in that position is that the models under forecast the cold air that the dynamics produce until we get within 72 hours or so. With a 981mb low 100 miles off shore, you're going to have a heck of a fetch of warm (it's only November) marine air being lifted and moved inland. If you're under that, your mid-levels will be warm. At least until the flow can shift around as the storm gains latitude. Could be a snow-mix-snow scenario, but I'm not sure about wraparound in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Precip is starting to mix with snow at hour 111 up by where 1234abc is in Warren County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Thank you for the input. I am not sure you understand though, I am talking about Northern New Jersey, not NYC or the coast. Here, we are 150 miles inland from the center. My experience with storms in that position is that the models under forecast the cold air that the dynamics produce until we get within 72 hours or so. Yeah yeah, not really worried about Warren/Sussex here, not as modeled on the GFS, anyway. My comment was more about less elevated inland areas. My biggest concern for inland isn't the snow - it's the continued cold/wet regime for areas still without power. My house temp bottomed out at 55.7 before getting power back on Thursday night. It can only be worse for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Hour 114 of the GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Hour 112 of the GGEM: 968? Jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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