Sundog Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Did I say that? Or did you just put words in my mouth? Not seen within a century is not the same as seeing a storm like Sandy every year. So maybe it is me thats got you. You referenced a storm from last year that shattered all time snow records and early season snow records as a reason that we can get snow this time a year. Not very realistic. Sure it can happen but do you really expect it to? Your move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 The 12z GFS looks a tick cooler at 850 mb in the area so far at hour 51 than the 06z GFS. Also looks to be a bit cooler than the 00z GFS so far. We shall see if this has any meaningful impact on the eventual outcome with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 JB is not saying snow will accumulate in any of the big cities ," he said a change at the end is possible" JB not calling for ANY ACCUMAULATION IN NYC , he does think it accumulates in NW NJ back thru the lower hudson valley nothward . I wouldnt focus on that aspect . I think the potential for 2 inches of rain and 40 degrees is a disaster for those with no power and holes in there roofs , let alone those with NO HOMES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 oh - And 40 MPH gusts wind potential is ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12z GFS to 84hr, looks more amplified and attempting to phase quicker than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 GFS continues to be a touch cooler than the 06z GFS in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Rain arrives at hour 96 into NJ on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 GFS has a massive snowstorm for much of New Jersey with a sub 984mb 100 miles off the coast. Classic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 850s crash east at hour 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 850's warm up in eastern sections, but this has a classic look. Likely still too warm as the dynamics are likely not being forecast properly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 sub 984 over eastern Long Island at 114 hrs, precip continues heavily in all of New Jersey, again 850 level is warm, but I doubt it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Could be a nice front end thumping if the GFS were to verify. I'll have to look at soundings and the Boundary Layer, but that may be snow in the beginning before it changes over in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 most of you aren't going to see a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Unfortunately, this would do terrible damage to the New Jersey coast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12z GFS shows 70mph wind gusts at Montauk. Not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 total precip is 1 inch across Northern New Jersey, increasing to 1.75-2.00 as you head south into Sothern New Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 most of you aren't going to see a flake I think the City probably won't. But the NW Burbs where 1234abc and I are could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 most of you aren't going to see a flake Models are coming in colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I doubt it will snow here...maybe a flake or two mixed in...If this is the winter storm track we will get our share of snow...We don't need it now...What we need is some torching...That isn't going to happen so the suffering will get worse...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Many won't but some will. I will send you pictures. most of you aren't going to see a flake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Models are coming in colder Man sometimes i just pop on here to hear you say this stuff , classic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I doubt too that Staten Island would see much if any, but Northern New Jersey might, and that would be terrible considering that the trees are still leaning on power lines everywhere. I doubt it will snow here...maybe a flake or two mixed in...If this is the winter storm track we will get our share of snow...We don't need it now...What we need is some torching...That isn't going to happen so the suffering will get worse...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I think the City probably won't. But the NW Burbs where abc and I are could. 12Z GFS Snow Map at 114 has a few inches mostly away from the water - this is not impossible to see flakes and some accumulation http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfssnow114.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 12Z GFS Snow Map at 114 has a few inches mostly away from the water - this is not impossible to see flakes and some accumulation http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow114.gif Those are probably grossly overdone.. FWIW, it's much more than the 00z and the 06z GFS snowfall maps. I think that the NW Burbs definitely could see some flakes out of this at least in the beginning. Models haven't finished trending yet it seems, as the trend colder continued on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I think the City probably won't. But the NW Burbs where 1234abc and I are could. maybe some sleet pellets. the mid levels are warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I have the high resolution version on Wright Weather and it shows it at maximum intensity at 981mb about 100 miles off Toms River at 105 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 maybe some sleet pellets. the mid levels are warm I doubt the GFS is snow. Looks like close to sleet for the City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 morristown sounding: sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Sure taking the model verbatum, but do you really think that with a 981mb low 100 miles off shore that the mid-levels will be warm? I personally doubt it. maybe some sleet pellets. the mid levels are warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 There are other levels to check besides 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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