CooL Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro has a slow moving noreaster. I dont have maps but i would imagine winds would be pretty strong with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 0z ECM slowly takes the nor'easter up the coast, 987 mb low off the SE VA coast weakens as it moves towards eastern LI. Probably widespread rain and wind once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zgfssnow132.gif GFS Snow at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 EC is too warm for anything but rain except far NW (NW NJ up through NW CT), but definitely a threat for more flooding issues at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The 0z ECMWF mean is still east of the OP run, compared to the 12z mean the track doesn't look too different although this mean is stronger with the low pressure. Quickly scanning through the 0z GEFS individual members, more look to have rain in NYC than the 18z members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 6z GFS has 978mb low east of NJ. I don't like the latest trend for a slower and deeper storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Wind gusts near 60 on the Euro and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Can you please provide a link where you got the ensemble mean of the ECMWF. 6z GFS has 978mb low east of NJ. I don't like the latest trend for a slower and deeper storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 JB This will be a powerful noreaster , but due to pre storm conditions, its worse. Heavy snows inland, change even possible to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Can you please provide a link where you got the ensemble mean of the ECMWF. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Thank you. I also found this. Free ensemble mean out to 10 days, with 24 hour interval from ECMWF headquarter. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!MSLP!North%20America!120!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2012110300!!/ http://raleighwx.ame...s/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 Thank you. I also found this. Free ensemble mean out to 10 days, with 24 hour interval from ECMWF headquarter. http://www.ecmwf.int...l!2012110300!!/ Yep, that's also another site that I use for the ECM ENS and the ECM OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Thank you, but this is only in 24 hr intervals. The one that was posted was in 6 hr intervals. I can't find the link to where that is coming from. http://raleighwx.ame...s/ecmwfens.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 JB Heavy snows inland, change even possible to coast I love how he hates the GFS but then likes the part that shows snow at the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 I think that the GGEM will come even more west at it's 12z run today. It seems to be trending west, and probably hasn't finished trending to the consensus quite yet. I'm interested to see what P-types it shows for the beginning of the storm if it does trend further west and give us precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I agree, but honestly, even the ECMWF is not far from showing that, and did show just that on the run yesterday morning. The ECMWF mean is further off shore, which tends to tell me that the storm may be just a bit further offshore, allowing a bit more cold air to filter in. He may end up being right. I love how he hates the GFS but then likes the part that shows snow at the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 00z GGEM Ensembles are west and more amplified than the 12z GGEM Ensembles from yesterday. They are also quite a bit colder than the 12z GGEM Ensembles from yesterday, fitting the overall cooler trend with the model guidance last night. 0z GGEM Ensembles at hour 120 Yesterday's 12z GGEM Ensembles at hour 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I am sorry, but if you put a 978-982mb low 50+ miles off the Jersey Shore, I am struggling to see how Northern New Jersey gets rain, regardless of what the models are currently showing. I don't buy it. This is not a warm core hurricane like sandy that will bring warm in in with it. With a Northeast wind and a cold core system of that strength, it is my estimation that the models are over-forecasting the warm air and it will trend colder. This could be disaster for the coast with the winds coming off the ocean, and disastrous for areas just inland in Northern New Jersey with strong winds and heavy wet snow accumulating on the trees that are already leaning on the power lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 3, 2012 Author Share Posted November 3, 2012 I am sorry, but if you put a 978-982mb low 50+ miles off the Jersey Shore, I am struggling to see how Northern New Jersey gets rain, regardless of what the models are currently showing. I don't buy it. This is not a warm core hurricane like sandy that will bring warm in in with it. With a Northeast wind and a cold core system of that strength, it is my estimation that the models are over-forecasting the warm air and it will trend colder. This could be disaster for the coast with the winds coming off the ocean, and disastrous for areas just inland in Northern New Jersey with strong winds and heavy wet snow accumulating on the trees that are already leaning on the power lines. Last night's models trended quite a bit colder, and can be exampled in the GGEM ensemble charts I posted, so your idea may be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I love how he hates the GFS but then likes the part that shows snow at the coast... The man has no convictions. Whatever shows what he wants to see is game for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I am sorry, but if you put a 978-982mb low 50+ miles off the Jersey Shore, I am struggling to see how Northern New Jersey gets rain, regardless of what the models are currently showing. I don't buy it. This is not a warm core hurricane like sandy that will bring warm in in with it. With a Northeast wind and a cold core system of that strength, it is my estimation that the models are over-forecasting the warm air and it will trend colder. This could be disaster for the coast with the winds coming off the ocean, and disastrous for areas just inland in Northern New Jersey with strong winds and heavy wet snow accumulating on the trees that are already leaning on the power lines. Someone forgot its only early November, not early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Someone forgot its only early November, not early February. Your not seriously going to preach that are you? Someone must have forgot we had a huge snowstorm last year in late OCTOBER. Someone must have forgot we just were impacted with a storm (Sandy) that these areas dont see in a century! If your really about to say a wet accumulating snowfall cant happen in early November, your opinion is humorous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Your not seriously going to preach that are you? Someone must have forgot we had a huge snowstorm last year in late OCTOBER. Someone must have forgot we just were impacted with a storm (Sandy) that these areas dont see in a century! If your really about to say a wet accumulating snowfall cant happen in early November, your opinion is humorous. If the storm blows up near our area, I can see how cold air is drawn into the system and even the big cities see snow. JB on his latest video said the cities will see snow. As of now, this will be a cold rain for the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 If the storm blows up near our area, I can see how cold air is drawn into the system and even the big cities see snow. JB on his latest video said the cities will see snow. As of now, this will be a cold rain for the NYC area. Worst case scenario, these areas hit by sandy see an accumulating wet snowfall. Winds gust to 60 on these latest models, and you get another round of down trees and powerlines everywhere. Damn.. This is actually one storm no one wants to see right now. Talk about no power for a VERY long time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I did not forget. I have seen many late October significant snowstorms in Northern New Jersey in my life, including one just last year, and this is early November. If this were middle October, I would agree with you, but it is early November and that makes a massive difference. Someone forgot its only early November, not early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Your not seriously going to preach that are you? Someone must have forgot we had a huge snowstorm last year in late OCTOBER. Someone must have forgot we just were impacted with a storm (Sandy) that these areas dont see in a century! If your really about to say a wet accumulating snowfall cant happen in early November, your opinion is humorous. And we get a hurricane Sandy every year. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 And we get a hurricane Sandy every year. Gotcha. Did I say that? Or did you just put words in my mouth? Not seen within a century is not the same as seeing a storm like Sandy every year. So maybe it is me thats got you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Your not seriously going to preach that are you? Someone must have forgot we had a huge snowstorm last year in late OCTOBER. Someone must have forgot we just were impacted with a storm (Sandy) that these areas dont see in a century! If your really about to say a wet accumulating snowfall cant happen in early November, your opinion is humorous. It CAN happen, but it needs more than just a deep low. It needs cold air, as always. Latest GFS and EC only have 534 thickness down to southern Ontario. Last October it was all the way down to Kentucky. Can't get snow without a good supply of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I did not forget. I have seen many late October significant snowstorms in Northern New Jersey in my life, including one just last year, and this is early November. If this were middle October, I would agree with you, but it is early November and that makes a massive difference. I see now that you are in Warren County. NorthWESTERN New Jersey. Big difference between there and, say, Fort Lee. I already said earlier that the EC does give NW NJ some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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