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November 2012 Observations and Discussions


Snow_Miser

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Unless there are changes, the first half of the month will feature a 3 day shot of below normal starting arournd next weekend that looks to be dry. Thereafter we go normal to above normal for several days. Then, if we can get some ridging out west some significantly colder air can head our way as we head toward Xmas. The Upper midwest and the Western Lakes looks to do fairly well in this pattern. If we can get some snow on the ground there, it will help to lessen the modification of future cold air masses that try to fringe us.

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After today , its roughly a 10 day period of warmer than normal , and the trough that attempts to make it to the coast mid and late next week , gets

pulled back again , mayb its the second trough that starts to dig in at 240 that you can look for but I would be careful forecasting a pattern turn until you see a different setup in the Pacific start to take shape .

The GFS likes to dump the trough in the east after 288 on almost every run , so its just hard to buy .

Displace that PV in the gulf of alaska and then i will buy a turn mid month but not until then .

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Has that inferno hit freezing yet? I think I'm nearing 15 nights sub freezing for the season already.

Nope. The lowest they hit in November was 33 on the 7th.

But they are still -3.3 for the month.

32 or below:

NYC: 3 times

JFK: 3 times

ISP: 10 times

EWR: 5 times

BDR: 8 times

LGA: 0 times

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18 days at or below freezing here...thats similar to my totals last Jan and Feb.

You made me recount that number, it looks like I have 19, with the majority of those days in the 20s! Very impressive for this early in the season. I have a feeling our final tally will be impressive this winter for sub freezing nights.

I was thinking similarly - last winter we were lucky to fall sub 32F in Jan and Feb - it was disgusting.

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