Snow_Miser Posted November 24, 2012 Author Share Posted November 24, 2012 0z GGEM is a big suppressed mess. Rain for the coast and light snow inland. It gives about 10 hours of moderate snow to places literally about 5 miles to my north. It's definitely close IMBY on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Benchmark track on the 0z GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 850's are cold enough when the system starts. If the GFS shifts further east with the low, this would have been more frozen for the area. The Euro is much colder than the other models. 0z GFS shows an all snow event for this neck of the woods.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 I don't know, I'm not feeling this system too much, I'm thinking maybe by mid December we get a good snow pattern going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 850's are cold enough when the system starts. If the GFS shifts further east with the low, this would have been more frozen for the area. The Euro is much colder than the other models. cmon by this point you have to understand why the Euro is much colder with a SUPPRESSED system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 UKMET at 96 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Nice snowstorm on the Euro away from the coast. Way north of the 12z solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Energy Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Nice snowstorm on the Euro away from the coast. Way north of the 12z solution. Roth @ HPC on the model diagnostic disco said to discard the Euro solution. There is too much agreement with the other guidance. Will see if the Euro comes around to the other models in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Roth @ HPC on the model diagnostic disco said to discard the Euro solution. There is too much agreement with the other guidance. Will see if the Euro comes around to the other models in future runs. Didn't the EC come around? :confused: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Didn't the EC come around? :confused: Correct the Euro has a moderate snowfall. 2-4 away from the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Latest AO forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 In a tweet, this morning, JB wrote: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi @LeeGoldbergABC7 Heh Lee,when was the last time 2 accumulating snows in NYC in Nov,and what is monthly record. Both could be in play The last time NYC saw two accumulating snows in November occurred in 1938. The November monthly snowfall record is 19.0", which was established in 1898. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 In a tweet, this morning, JB wrote: Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi @LeeGoldbergABC7 Heh Lee,when was the last time 2 accumulating snows in NYC in Nov,and what is monthly record. Both could be in play The last time NYC saw two accumulating snows in November occurred in 1938. The November monthly snowfall record is 19.0", which was established in 1898. Well, we aren't beating the 1898 record, but we do have a shot at 1938, we shall see. I think we can get it done, hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Well, we aren't beating the 1898 record, but we do have a shot at 1938, we shall see. I think we can get it done, hopefully. we need an 8" snowstorm to equal 1938...that probably won't happen.. November snowfall... Greatest monthly snowfall... 19.0" in 1898 14.0" in 1882 12.8" in 1938 _6.3" in 1892 _5.0" in 1896 Biggest snowfalls... 10.0" 11/26-27/1898 9.5" 11/29/30/1882 est... 8.8" 11/24-25/1938 6.0" 11/30/1898 5.0" 11/29-30/1896 4.7" 11/22-23/1989 4.7" 11/07/2012 4.0" 11/29-30/1892 4.0" 11/26-27/1938 3.7" 11/26/1882 est... 3.7" 11/29-30/1945 3.2" 11/30/1967 3.0" 11/24/1898 2.9" 11/30/1995 1882 and 1898 had three measurable snowfalls in November...Then hardly any in December but much more January and February... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Flakes are starting to fly right now =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ebwx Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Saw a few flakes about a half hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Milford Highlander Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Maybe you will be 3 - 4 eight days from now, or maybe you will drop to .500.. I normally don't make calls but i really don't like this one (for NYC metro) You were right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 While 850s are pretty impressive the cold at ground level is nothing to write home about. Why the disconnect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 While 850s are pretty impressive the cold at ground level is nothing to write home about. Why the disconnect? No dynamics. Weak system. Most of our precip is from waa and nothing from the actual developing low pressure because its too weak. This might work in the middle of January, but very tough to get accumulating snows from a waa scenario this early. We need to get extremely lucky and get into a weenie band, but even then it'll be hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 No dynamics. Weak system. Most of our precip is from waa and nothing from the actual developing low pressure because its too weak. This might work in the middle if January, but very tough to get accumulating snows from a waa scenario this early. We need to get extremely lucky and get into a weenie band, but even then it'll be hard. I think he was referring to temps over the weekend. Some people said NYC would fail to reach 40 today. That didn't quite work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I think he was referring to temps over the weekend. Some people said NYC would fail to reach 40 today. That didn't quite work out. to be fair, the idea wasnt very far off, new york reached exactly 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 to be fair, the idea wasnt very far off, new york reached exactly 40 Well, I didn't say it was far off, I just said it didn't quite work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Did someone spill red paint all over the 10 day 500 mb charts. The warm up following whatever falls tomorrow means business. The models hav been emphatic on dumping the trough into the gulf of Alaska for a bit. Looks like 7 to 10 days of above normal. With the NAO and AO so neg during ths period. What am I missing. Usually argues for trough in the east. . Any ideas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Did someone spill red paint all over the 10 day 500 mb charts. The warm up following whatever falls tomorrow means business. The models hav been emphatic on dumping the trough into the gulf of Alaska for a bit. Looks like 7 to 10 days of above normal. With the NAO and AO so neg during ths period. What am I missing. Usually argues for trough in the east. . Any ideas ? Well, there's a trough... its just being pushed aside by the super ridge in the Plains. The real warmth will be there, the east will be peripheral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Well, there's a trough... its just being pushed aside by the super ridge in the Plains. The real warmth will be there, the east will be peripheral. Thanks dude. I just hate seeing good indices go to waste. Euro weeklies point to a colder second half of dec But I just remember a yr ago waiting for the PV to rotate out of Alaska. And it never really did. So not sleeping well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Did someone spill red paint all over the 10 day 500 mb charts. The warm up following whatever falls tomorrow means business. The models hav been emphatic on dumping the trough into the gulf of Alaska for a bit. Looks like 7 to 10 days of above normal. With the NAO and AO so neg during ths period. What am I missing. Usually argues for trough in the east. . Any ideas ? The Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge, is not breaking down as was shown, in early December. So that leads another big ULL forming over NE Pacific/GOA. Also the storm tomorrow being weaker, isn't creating a strong enough block in over the Davis Strait to prevent the Plains ridge from expanding east. Hopefully, the MJO and stratospheric warming progged at 30mb, will change the pattern in the Pacific by mid-December. And there will be another big storm that comes along that enhances the -NAO again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Did someone spill red paint all over the 10 day 500 mb charts. The warm up following whatever falls tomorrow means business. The models hav been emphatic on dumping the trough into the gulf of Alaska for a bit. Looks like 7 to 10 days of above normal. With the NAO and AO so neg during ths period. What am I missing. Usually argues for trough in the east. . Any ideas ? It's just the pattern reloading. It happens all the time. The good thing is, models say the NAO stays negative, so after the pattern reloads, the weather is usually better than before (meaning the first cold before the reload), so we should be in business 2nd week of Dec, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 It's just the pattern reloading. It happens all the time. The good thing is, models say the NAO stays negative, so after the pattern reloads, the weather is usually better than before (meaning the first cold before the reload), so we should be in business 2nd week of Dec, What makes this a reloading pattern and not the possible pattern moving forward? Only asking because this is kind of what happened last year. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 This December is set to begin a little differently than 2010. December 2010 also featured Atlantic and Pacific high latitude blocking. This December will begin with the Pacific blocking dominating the Atlantic side. The big positive height anomaly will be over the Bering Sea with a very deep low underneath off the Pacific NW Coast. The digging deep low over the Eastern Pacific will help pump the SE Ridge and warm things up in the East next week. We'll probably see a step down in temperatures for week 2 of December as the deep low in the Pacific fades. 2010 December week 1 next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Not sure if i buy the 12z GFS bringing the trought back into the east day 11 - it send a system back into eastern canada forcing the trough to dig back in ,( plausable ) . BUT When i see he trough STILL west of Hawaii and the PV sitting in Alaska i get leary of diggingfor a trough back into the east for any extended period of time. Would be more comfortable if either of the 2 broke down . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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