Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 ECMWF has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 12z Euro is still way south. It squashes the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 ECMWF has no storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I think the GFS will finally catch that this a shunt next week , It came around from a GLC cutter to a southern appendage and eventually when it sees the depth of the trough next week will prog it south and east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I agree. The chances that the Euro is wrong are extremely small. I am definitely beginning to think this is a non-event. What is amazing is that if that is the case, look how every other model has us getting a storm next week. If the Euro is correct again, which it probably is, it really shows how much better a model it is, and how it is nearly worthless to even follow the other models. I mean the Euro seems to be nailing these things at least a day earlier than all the other models every time. I think the GFS will finally catch that this a shunt next week , It came around from a GLC cutter to a southern appendage and eventually when it sees the depth of the trough next week will prog it south and east . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I will concede the Euro is on its own as it leaves a piece of energy behind in the SW , so it comes up with a flatter solution the the GFS , JMA and Canadian does . That is a typical error in he Euro as it likes to leave pieces behind . So if the Euro is wrong thats where its making its mistake and then I am buying a bad solution . FWIW week on the 2 Euro ensembles brings a deep NEG into the SOUTHEAST, that could be fun for us around Dec 8 ish . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Down to -4.3 temp departure here for November, impressive month. After last night's 29.6F, I've seen 7 nights in the 20s and 11 nights sub freezing in November, not to mention a foot of snow. More snow next week would simply make this the best November ever. In the past few years I've seen record snows in every "cold season" month except for March and April. Same here with a departure of -4.0 degrees... nice to have a cold nov for a change. Also with 7 in. of snow have also set monthly records for every month but March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 i agree the euro is the best model, but it isnt perfect, philly is still waiting for the euro snowstorm NYC go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Just glancing ahead at future impulses, myself and a few others were discussing a potential impulse around 12/4- 12/6. The GFS and a few other models are hinting at a de-amplifying ULL over the Southwest US that will eventually shoot a disturbance northeast towards the MS Valley. If the block over Greenland/Davis straight retrogrades and can hold -- one can assume there would be a wintry weather threat on the north side of this system with a gradient developing and a strong surface high over Southern Canada. Much of this remains up in the air as we are still in la-la-land but there have been some hints of it on the ensembles...you can see the progression here in the links below. The GFS is warm taken literally but notice the N-Central Canadian block and PV/confluent flow over the Northeast prior to the event...and then the good signal for an ejecting shortwave and developing system over the MS Valley. http://www.meteo.psu...RF_12z/f252.gif http://www.meteo.psu...RF_12z/f288.gif We'll see. If the big ULL over the Northeast doesn't develop like the GFS suggests it will, this threat will be nonexistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 i agree the euro is the best model, but it isnt perfect, philly is still waiting for the euro snowstorm NYC go Yes, my exact feelings! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 18z GFS looks like it has the overrunning precip again, though it's a bit weaker than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 About the same amount of pcpn in NJ, but a bit less into NYC/LI this model run. General .25-.5" of liquid throughout th me area, with the jackpot being C NJ this model run with 0.5-0.75 inches of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Some more precip forms on the NW side as better dynamics get going with the interaction from the northern stream shortwave. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_18z/f120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 The 18z GEFS look about the same as the Operational, with widespread 0.25-0.5" of pcpn for the region: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I have to be honest, the 18z GFS is pretty close to exactly what I have been thinking for this storm for quite some time now. I believed for some time that the GFS was too far north and the Euro was too far south. That was until the Euro completely lost the storm. That got me thinking about things, but honestly, the 18z run is pretty close to what I have been thinking for this storm. Now I look at the 18z run of the NOGAPS and how it has gotten much more aggressive with this storm, and close to the coast, and this really makes you wonder. When the NOGAPS does this, it definitely raises some red flags. Heck, when the NOGAPS produces anything at all within a few hundred miles of the coast it raises red flags. I really am wondering if the Euro is simply inadvertently leaving energy behind in the southwest, which is a bias of the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Thanks for breaking it down 1234abc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 You are welcome, and here is the panel before. It looks like a general 6 inches throughout our area, taken verbatim. Thanks for breaking it down 1234abc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Usually when the nogaps is amped, it is a big red flag to the flat models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Usually when the nogaps is amped, it is a big red flag to the flat models. Maybe if it does it 3 or 4 runs in a row and trends more amped each time...esp inside of 96 hours....but one run at 96-108 hours isn't that alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Then we may really be in business because It has been trending more amped on the prior two runs each time. It is more amped and closer to the coast on both of the prior two runs now. Images below are from the prior run at 12z. and the run before at 6z. Maybe if it does it 3 or 4 runs in a row and trends more amped each time...esp inside of 96 hours....but one run at 96-108 hours isn't that alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 84 hr NAM (lol) is pretty amped up with that s/w at 84 hours digging into the Central US. Not sure it would be enough but it's interesting to see. I can't find any other guidance similar to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 GFS is coming in more north and wetter. Also colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The 0z GFS is more amplified too. 1013mb low near ACY at 102hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 The 0z GFS is more amplified too. 1013mb low near ACY. It then rides the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Looks like mostly a cold rain to me, maybe a little bit of snow in the beginning but mostly rain despite the wetter look. The airmass doesn't look cold enough to me, so I'm doubting we see much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Looks like mostly a cold rain to me, maybe a little bit of snow in the beginning but mostly rain despite the wetter look. The airmass doesn't look cold enough to me, so I'm doubting we see much. 850's are cold enough when the system starts. If the GFS shifts further east with the low, this would have been more frozen for the area. The Euro is much colder than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 0z Nogaps is much further north and warmer. https://www.fnmoc.na...tau=108&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 Can any model agree with the other? We're getting such differences in the models ever since Sandy, it's incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 0z GGEM is a big suppressed mess. Rain for the coast and light snow inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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