ag3 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Yes. Soundings should tell us what type of precipitation this exactly is once they come out. As is, the GFS is warm at the surface and at the 900mb level. Would be rain for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 As is, the GFS is warm at the surface and at the 900mb level. Would be rain for the coast. Could you post the 900 mb temperature? I don't believe I have that graphic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 As is, the GFS is warm at the surface and at the 900mb level. Would be rain for the coast. GFS snow map - looks reasonable - of course if the storm takes that track http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow120.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 As is, the GFS is warm at the surface and at the 900mb level. Would be rain for the coast. Probably snow up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Probably snow up here... For sure. Thermals better up there and to the west. But again, until the euro even shows a storm, this is just the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 GFS snow map - looks reasonable - of course if the storm takes that track http://raleighwx.ame...zgfssnow120.gif Looks like a widespread 4-5" north of I-78. About 3 inches where I am on those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 As is, the GFS is warm at the surface and at the 900mb level. Would be rain for the coast. Looks like a quick hitting snow to rain with that track. I would take the Euro temps with the GFS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 12z Nogaps is slightly south of the GFS. It's colder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 The GGEM is quite a bit south of it's 00z run. Also looks to be quite a bit weaker with the storm than the 00z run had it. It's 00z run gave Chicago a nice snowstorm. This run gives chicago zero precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 As is, the GFS is warm at the surface and at the 900mb level. Would be rain for the coast. It's NYC it's rain by 0z Wed. Might start of frozen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The block that develops after the storm is ridiculous. Fighting off the awful Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Precipitation starts off as ice on the GGEM for the area. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The block that develops after the storm is ridiculous. Fighting off the awful Pacific. The midwestern triple phase event at the end of the run is even more ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Rain for the coast but snow/ Ice inland on the GGEM. It came wayyyyyyyy south from the 0z run. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The block that develops after the storm is ridiculous. Fighting off the awful Pacific. It's not torchy like the other runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 It's not torchy like the other runs. Yeah, the block definitely "wins" the battle on this run. Perhaps we can prevent any warm up with the block while the Pacific is in the process of reloading. The Pacific should start to look quite favorable come Dec 5th or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 The GGEM starts off as ice then changes over to rain for most of NJ, then changes back to snow for northern portions of NJ before ending as a wintry mix. A classic example of a mixed bag precipitation event for some in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The GGEM starts off as ice then changes over to rain for most of NJ, then changes back to snow for northern portions of NJ before ending as a wintry mix. A classic example of a mixed bag precipitation event for some in NJ. It's not that far away from a snow event for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 It's not that far away from a snow event for coastal areas. Agreed. Another shift south by about 30 or so miles and NYC could be in the game for some frozen precipitation on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I had a feeling the models were going to adjust east and south because of the NAO, AO and PNA. A -PNA would argue a further west track but with the NAO and AO dropping towards negative values, that wouldn't happen. You can also thank the -EPO for a southern trend on the models.It can still shift more to the west or even south but the latest runs are agreeing with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 12z GEFS is further south and colder than the 0z run http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I had a feeling the models were going to adjust east and south because of the NAO, AO and PNA. A -PNA would argue a further west track but with the NAO and AO dropping towards negative values, that wouldn't happen. You can also thank the -EPO for a southern trend on the models.It can still shift more to the west or even south but the latest runs are agreeing with the Euro. Cutters can happen quite often even with a -NAO especially as it is trending more negative. What matters even more is the pattern surrounding the storm system, even though those index's may be favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 GFS gives the HV a nice accumulating snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Cutters can happen quite often even with a -NAO especially as it is trending more negative. What matters even more is the pattern surrounding the storm system, even though those index's may be favorable. Yeah, the NAO starting out neutral or positive tending negative can often not be enough because the established pattern prior to the system is relatively poor. Really amplified systems would probably cut and the ones that go off the coast in these patterns either have to thread the needle or be very sheared out and thus weak. That's why the Euro is weak. Perhaps it's over shearing the shortwave, though. The established -NAO is important because it allows for amplified storms to be coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Down to -4.3 temp departure here for November, impressive month. After last night's 29.6F, I've seen 7 nights in the 20s and 11 nights sub freezing in November, not to mention a foot of snow. More snow next week would simply make this the best November ever. In the past few years I've seen record snows in every "cold season" month except for March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The block that develops after the storm is ridiculous. Fighting off the awful Pacific. Looks like a redux of dec 2010 Had a horrible pacific but a -NAO that managed to keep us alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 12z GGEM looks better than what the precip maps show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 12z GGEM looks better than what the precip maps show There must be a mid level warm layer on the GGEM causing the p-types to be rain for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 There must be a mid level warm layer on the GGEM causing the p-types to be rain for the city. Most likely there has to be. Here is the next frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Most likely they has to be. Here is the next frame. This is definitely a marginal set-up for the area in terms of frozen precipitation with mid level warm layers. Let's see what the trends are with the mid level warmth in the next sets of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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