SmokeEater Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 6z GFS took a big step towards the Euro Didn't the 0z Euro pretty much lose the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 6z GEFS ensembles are mostly south now. Looks like snow for many areas of the mid atlantic. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html Didn't the 0z Euro pretty much lose the storm? Yes. What I meant is that the GFS trended southward toward the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 6z GEFS ensembles are mostly south now. Looks like snow for many areas of the mid atlantic.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_6z/ensprsloopmref.html Yes. What I meant is that the GFS trended southward toward the Euro. Ah ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 6z Nogaps lost the GLC. Now shows similiar to what the Euro is showing. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2012112306∏=prpτ=108&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 6z Nogaps lost the GLC. Now shows similiar to what the Euro is showing. https://www.fnmoc.na...tau=108&set=All considering that we have had 2 major coastal storms already this season don't be surprised as we get closer to the event the Euro adjusts north and the final track ends up being from the VA Capes to just off New England - hard to believe with the Neg Nao/AO developing strong and the warm ocean and all the energy involved and what has happened already along the coast that this is going to just scoot harmlessly out to the south with no precip............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 considering that we have had 2 major coastal storms already this season don't be surprised as we get closer to the event the Euro adjusts north and the final track ends up being from the VA Capes to just off New England - hard to believe with the Neg Nao/AO developing strong and the warm ocean and all the energy involved and what has happened already along the coast that this is going to just scoot harmlessly out to the south with no precip............ Euro did adjust north on the 0z run but still shows a weak low. Low is about to cross NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Euro did adjust north on the 0z run but still shows a weak low. Low is about to cross NJ. We are still 4 days away - still alot of time for the Euro and the other models to get this right and they will as we get into the sunday/monday time frame - another thing is we have had such a long stretch of dry weather this month since the snowstorm on the 7th/ 8th we are overdue for a significant event - whether or not it ends up being major is the unknown at this point .............but many times at the beginning and end of pattern changes is when we get the significant/major events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Euro did adjust north on the 0z run but still shows a weak low. Low is about to cross NJ. Unlike the GFS, there's not much development with the first s/w. The Euro is more focused on the second s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Sunday morning looks like it will be the fourth day this month with a 32 degree or lower reading for Central Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 HPC went with the 0z Euro mean in their discussion for next week's disturbance. "RELIED ON THE 00Z/23 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN STABLE FOR A COUPLE MODEL CYCLES NOW, INDICATING A FLATTER, FASTER FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS. THE 06Z/23 GEFS MEAN TRENDED TOWARD THE ECENS SOLUTION, WITH THE 00Z/23 UKMET ON THE QUICK SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AS WELL. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER AT THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, IN SOME INSTANCES DEMONSTRATING COMPARABLE SKILL A DAY OR TWO SOONER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECENS MEAN/ECMWF AND THE SLOWER, DEVELOPED MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL, IS CLEARING THE OHIO VALLEY OF PRECIPITATION A HALF OR FULL DAY SOONER, WITH LESS MERIDIONAL TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE. THE GFS GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER OVER THE FAR WEST WITH THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC, SO WAS NOT CONSIDERED FOR INCLUSION IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THERE, EITHER." http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 HPC went with the 0z Euro mean in their discussion for next week's disturbance. "RELIED ON THE 00Z/23 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN STABLE FOR A COUPLE MODEL CYCLES NOW, INDICATING A FLATTER, FASTER FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS. THE 06Z/23 GEFS MEAN TRENDED TOWARD THE ECENS SOLUTION, WITH THE 00Z/23 UKMET ON THE QUICK SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AS WELL. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER AT THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, IN SOME INSTANCES DEMONSTRATING COMPARABLE SKILL A DAY OR TWO SOONER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECENS MEAN/ECMWF AND THE SLOWER, DEVELOPED MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL, IS CLEARING THE OHIO VALLEY OF PRECIPITATION A HALF OR FULL DAY SOONER, WITH LESS MERIDIONAL TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE. THE GFS GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER OVER THE FAR WEST WITH THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC, SO WAS NOT CONSIDERED FOR INCLUSION IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THERE, EITHER." http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd They do seem confused! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 HPC has us in the .25 - .50 range for precip days 4 - 5 - question now is how much of that will be frozen ? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95e12p48iwbg_fill.gif HPC went with the 0z Euro mean in their discussion for next week's disturbance. "RELIED ON THE 00Z/23 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN STABLE FOR A COUPLE MODEL CYCLES NOW, INDICATING A FLATTER, FASTER FLOW ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AT THE MEDIUM RANGE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS. THE 06Z/23 GEFS MEAN TRENDED TOWARD THE ECENS SOLUTION, WITH THE 00Z/23 UKMET ON THE QUICK SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AS WELL. THE ECENS MEAN HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER AT THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS, IN SOME INSTANCES DEMONSTRATING COMPARABLE SKILL A DAY OR TWO SOONER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THE BIGGEST SENSIBLE WEATHER DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECENS MEAN/ECMWF AND THE SLOWER, DEVELOPED MODELS, INCLUDING THE GFS AND GEM GLOBAL, IS CLEARING THE OHIO VALLEY OF PRECIPITATION A HALF OR FULL DAY SOONER, WITH LESS MERIDIONAL TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE. THE GFS GUIDANCE IS AN OUTLIER OVER THE FAR WEST WITH THE HANDLING OF THE ENERGY COMING OFF THE PACIFIC, SO WAS NOT CONSIDERED FOR INCLUSION IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE THERE, EITHER." http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdepd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Very interesting to see the GFS trend even further towards the ECMWF in it's 06z run. The question is, is it a permanent short term trend, or one of many trends like we saw with the November 7th 2012 early season snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 The 12z GFS looks even colder for this event than it was with the 06z run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 It is coming in more south and colder so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 It is coming in more south and colder so far. Is DT going to be right with his forecast from last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Is DT going to be right with his forecast from last week? This looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 This looks better Looks like at least some frozen to start with this overruning event on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Decent hit for NYC at 105 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Nice little overrunning event on the 12z GFS. Looks like this could be snow at hr 105. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 111 is a very close to something special for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 108 on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Very nice GFS run. Looks like about 0.5" for the city and about 0.75" for SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Very nice GFS run. The GFS prints out a widespread 0.25-0.5 inches of liquid, with localized areas slightly higher than that. Looks mostly frozen. .50" - .75" for NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Thermals are questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 .50" - .75" for NYC and LI. Yep, the GFS printed out more pcpn after I posted that. SW CT looks to be the jackpot this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Verbatim a 2-4" or 3-6" storm....but very close.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 It looks like most north of the M/D line get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Thermals are questionable. Yes. Soundings should tell us what type of precipitation this exactly is once they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Thermals are questionable. Yes. Surface is questionable but the 850's are cold enough until the low comes close to NYC. Maybe snow to rain ( off this run ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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