MJO812 Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 GFS is still not budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 GFS is still not budging. Because its reality and has loads of model support outside of the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Because its reality and has loads of model support outside of the euro How does that usually work out? just wondering, happy T-Day!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Looks like to me that the general consensus on good blocking gets going after the storm on the 29th, setting up for a rocking december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 How does that usually work out? just wondering, happy T-Day!!! It's more of my opinion on the pattern in place for that storm than the model war right now between the gfs/euro. I dont like it. The blocking is there but its moving out as the storm moves from west to east...allowing heights to build in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 GFS and reality? Sure. So you are saying that you believe the GFS over the Euro? I would take that bet any day. The chances that the GFS will win this are under 10%. The Euro was also the only model bringing Sandy onshore in this range. The GFS had her going out into the middle of the Atlantic ocean. The Euro will undoubtedly prove to be king again with this storm. The Euro does not need support from any other model. Because its reality and has loads of model support outside of the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 GFS and reality? Sure. So you are saying that you believe the GFS over the Euro? I would take that bet any day. The chances that the GFS will win this are under 10%. The Euro was also the only model bringing Sandy onshore in this range. The GFS had her going out into the middle of the Atlantic ocean. The Euro will undoubtedly prove to be king again with this storm. The Euro does not need support from any other model. We all know the euro is good dude. How did your last call for a noreaster work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 Atleast i gave my reasoning. 12345abcd's reasoning is "the euro was good with sandy" lol, that's completely irrelevant right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 22, 2012 Share Posted November 22, 2012 I am 2 out of 3 on the last 3 from two weeks out. You win some and you lose some. I am certainly not the only one who called for that one. I also called it off before NJ. com, accuweather, and many of the other local weather people. When you try to call them from two weeks out you will tend to get some wrong from time to time. We all know the euro is good dude. How did your last call for a noreaster work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 I am 2 out of 3 on the last 3 from two weeks out. You win some and you lose some. I am certainly not the only one who called for that one. I also called it off before NJ. com, accuweather, and many of the other local weather people. When you try to call them from two weeks out you will tend to get some wrong from time to time. Maybe you will be 3 - 4 eight days from now, or maybe you will drop to .500.. I normally don't make calls but i really don't like this one (for NYC metro) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 GFS is still not budging. I don't know about that run...at 288 hours it has the 0 C @ 850 mb isotherm along the north shore of Hudson Bay...around December 5...that's just not gonna happen. GFS may have a Tennessee Valley to Buffalo track...but in reality...how any times does that actually happen?.. Not that often, compared to the offshore track. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Euro has support from the ensemble mean and the gefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Interestingly my parents Davis has been running below freezing most of the night (30.6 right now) while TTN, less than 2 miles away and 84 feet higher, has been staying above (currently reading 36). This airmass has been kind to radiational cooling areas. The temp spread between my backyard and NYC is 15F right now. KNYC: 48F, and here: 32.6F. Tonight has already fallen sub forecast again - we weren't expected to reach freezing. Last night was 28.6F. Woke up to hvy frost this morning. It's been a remarkable November in terms of # of sub freezing nights - tonight will make #11, and we've still got a week of November left. My lowest temp was 23.8F on November 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Apps runner on the 0z GFS. Further east from the 12z and 18z run. Also colder in the east. Good progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Apps runner on the 0z GFS. Further east from the 12z and 18z run. Also colder in the east. Good progress. Took some pretty large steps towards the ECM with regard to the antecedent airmass and the overall intensity of the system but it still didn't reach the ECM solution quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Took some pretty large steps towards the ECM with regard to the antecedent airmass and the overall intensity of the system but it still didn't reach the ECM solution quite yet. ECM is ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 The GGEM,Nogaps and GFS has close to an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 GGEM also came in quite a bit further south and weaker with this system. Chicago gets a nice snowstorm this run, whereas the 12z run gave Chicago a rainstorm. It was about 50-100 miles further south of the 12z run. Another trend towards the 12z ECMWF solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 ECM is ots Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 0z GEFS is colder than the op. The track is similiar but there are most likely some members further south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Yep, the Euro isn't budging at all. Further south than the 12z run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Yep, the Euro isn't budging at all. Further south than the 12z run lol. that's not good no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 that's not good no? We don't get anything from the Euro. It leaves us nice and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Update from DT: http://www.wxrisk.com/2012/11/update-on-winter-climate-models-for-the-winter/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Central Park working on a 14 day streak of dry days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Central Park working on a 14 day streak of dry days. It rained on the 13th... unless you are extrapolating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 It rained on the 13th... unless you are extrapolating. Whoops, missed it, my fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 Despite the chilly November, no freezing or sub-freezing temperatures have been recorded at LaGuardia this autumn; the low for the month is 33 F on the 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 305 AM EST FRI NOV 23 2012 VALID 12Z TUE NOV 27 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 30 2012 GENERAL FLOW PATTERN ==================== A REPETITION OF THE PATTERN SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS IS EXPECTED, WITH AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING FORMING ACROSS THE WEST AND PLAINS, AND RENEWED TROUGHING ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, THOUGH THE RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLET OVER THE LOWER 48 IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPOSED OF BROAD FEATURES OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE, WHICH LEADS TO QUICK SHORTWAVE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE COUNTRY. MODEL PREFERENCE ================ MODEL ISSUES ARE SIGNIFICANT THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES VERY FAST WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY, AND EVEN THOUGH ITS PATTERN ALOFT RESEMBLES THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION LATE NEXT WEEK, ITS PRESSURE PATTERN HAS BEEN SO CONTAMINATED BY THIS QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE EAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, ITS SOLUTION COULD NOT BE USED. THE 00Z GFS BROKE DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE WEDNESDAY MORNING BY USING A FORMERLY CLOSED LOW TO DO SO, AND DOES NOT CONVERGE WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE UNTIL DECEMBER 1ST, SO ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT USED EITHER. THE 00Z CANADIAN SHARPENS THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY ON, AND SENDS A DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH SHOWS LITTLE RESPECT TO THE COOL AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE FEATURE (NO OBVIOUS COLD AIR DAMMING). THE CANADIAN SOLUTION IS ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE TO BOOT, AND CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW, ITS SOLUTION SHOULD BE QUICKER AND POSSIBLY WEAKER HERE, SO ITS SOLUTION WAS NOT BE USED EITHER. PER THE ABOVE, THE PRESSURES USED A 00Z UKMET TEMPLATE THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z UKMET SOLUTION WAS NOT PERFECT EITHER, SHOWING QUICKER PROGRESSION THAN ANTICIPATED BY THE ENSEMBLE LOW CLUSTERING ACROSS THE EAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC, SO SHIFTED ITS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TOWARDS 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERING THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD THIS PERIOD, THE RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48 UNITED STATES, AND THE LACK OF AN OVERALL GOOD DETERMINISTIC MODEL CHOICE, CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE IN THIS PREFERENCE. ROTH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 6z GFS took a big step towards the Euro ( although, it still has the storm ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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