earthlight Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Snow event at 216hrs --00z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Is that an exact date match for that time period on the lower right? If so, that's a few days too early for 11/29/1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Snow event at 216hrs --00z euro 204-216.. Weak lp slides south dc-40/70. Nice little event verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Snow event also on the 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Clearly, we shouldn't trust the model solutions for the Nov 28-29th storm, until there's more consistency. But the 0z ECMWF ensembles and 6z GEFS are stronger with the ridges building over Alaska and Greenland, early next week. We'll have to watch for this to continue, for a colder solution: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 The 6z GEFS agree with the Operational for somewhat of a precipitation event to reach the area in the day 8 timeframe with 850s well below freezing: Hour 204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Coldest Novembers since 1971... 41.7 in 1976 43.0 in 1996 43.6 in 1995 44.4 in 1972 44.5 in 1997 44.6 in 1980 45.1 in 1971 45.3 in 2000 45.4 in 2007 45.7 in 1989 45.7 in 1986 45.8 in 2008 Just want to add that Central Park sits at 44.7 degrees for the month as of November 19th. Looks like we have a chance to crack the top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Just want to add that Central Park sits at 44.7 degrees for the month as of November 19th. Looks like we have a chance to crack the top 5. Nah the lows will be pathetic coming up it's really going to kill any chance of maintaining that departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Nah the lows will be pathetic coming up it's really going to kill any chance of maintaining that departure. ?? The next 4 days will be average to slightly below average and then models have Sunday to Wednesday WAY below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I'm updating when possible at [email protected]. Looks like a busy first half of the winter season this year. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Wxoutlooks- you're not at http://wxoutlooks.blogspot.com/ anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Is that an exact date match for that time period on the lower right? If so, that's a few days too early for 11/29/1995. Don't see that listed there but yeah those are the analog dates based on the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The Euro Weeklies today, show the MJO propagating through phases 1,2 and 3. So the first half of December, could s cold and stormy. While the second half of Dec into early January, could see moderation. This winter doesn't look 2010 or 2009 to me, honestly. This could be bookend winter, if the MJO continues it's progression.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Usually hate promoting my own stuff here, but for the sake of reading...Doug and I put together a long range discussion on the blog here: http://www.nymetroweather.com/2012/11/20/analyzing-the-weather-pattern-going-forward/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The Euro Weeklies today, show the MJO propagating through phases 1,2 and 3. So the first half of December, could s cold and stormy. While the second half of Dec into early January, could see moderation. This winter doesn't look 2010 or 2009 to me, honestly. This could be bookend winter, if the MJO continues it's progression.: It's been 7/8-1-2 and then COD for the MJO recently. Certainly living on the good side of what looks like an MJO that's running in circles right now. But I agree with the potential late dec or Jan moderation/break in the potential action. I think Feb could have lots of goods to offer, though. We'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 If this small but relatively high-anomaly ridge over Greenland does develop, with the transient low near the 50/50 position, there could be some support for an overunning event if the shortwave can scoot out northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic. This type of event favors a redeveloping surface low south of LI, but it remains to be seen if the antecedent airmass will support much frozen precipitation south of NYC. If the medium range ensemble guidance is out to lunch with the pattern over the Atlantic/Greenland -- or if the event is timed slower, after these features move out, the surface low can strengthen to the west and then warm air advection will ensue as the surface low cuts to our west. What's even more interesting to me is how, after this period, the GFS maintains the pattern with plenty of cold in Central, Southern Canada/Northern 1/3 of the US...and above normal anomalies from Greenland over the pole into the Aleutians and NW Alaska. Interesting times ahead friends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 It looks like the whole forecast hinges on the strength of the block over Greenland. The stronger that the block verifies, the colder a solution we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I'm updating when possible at [email protected]. Looks like a busy first half of the winter season this year. WX/PT Proper website is http://wxoutlooks.rollr.com That hyperlink should work for those looking for his updates in the NYC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Per my station here in Monmouth County, I've recorded 10 nights in November w/ lows at or below 32F. That's very impressive considering my average low doesn't reach 32F until the last couple days of November. 1 sub freezing night in October makes my tally 11 so far this cold season. I'm -3.7 for November so far, by far the coldest month of 2012 wrt normals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Gorgeous pattern setting up on the long range euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Gorgeous pattern setting up on the long range euro Still have a winter storm on day 8-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Still have a winter storm on day 8-10? Earlier pending the track. Euro is snow to rain, GFS is a mix to all snow. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The Euro operational should correct on the next run or 2 for next week . The depth of the trough in the pacific and the heights of the ridge on the west coast argues for a more amplified trough in the east day 7- 10 . SO IT WIL BE COLDER IN THE EAST in this time period , if theres a storm it should not go west of the mtns . The EURO ensembles already show a stronger trough in the east than its 12 z operational . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Looks like snow to rain for the coast on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Looks like snow to rain for the coast on the GFS The setup aloft argues for a period of snow to rain for almost everybody involved outside of Northern New England. Need a stronger shortwave and a better block/subsequent high for more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The setup aloft argues for a period of snow to rain for almost everybody involved outside of Northern New England. Need a stronger shortwave and a better block/subsequent high for more snow. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The Euro ensembles still have more of an east-based NAO ridge after Day 10 with the ridge axis over Iceland. But there are higher than normal heights across Greenland and the poles back towards the Aleutian ridge, so it's not a terrible pattern. Ideally you might want that NAO ridge farther west for big cold -- but that might displace the PV to the south and east and suppress any storm chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I like the look of the Euro ensembles a lot. It looks like it's heavily phase 1 MJO influenced -- it moves the Aleutian Ridge to the west, which helps to form lower heights in the eastern Aleutians, helping to form a PNA ridge. I think that would coincide well with the December 5th snowstorm threat. Also nice to see that ridging move west but not break down -- and it's trying to connect with the Atlantic ridging, which would help form a beautiful ridge bridge and lock in a cold pattern for several weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 12z GFS operational was not too good as the cold air has a hard time making it down to this latitude with the main storm track remaining along the US / Canadien border or up through the Great Lakes...if it verifed, you would probably not be far from a positive monthly departure in the Park for November. So much for that thought...two days later, a negative departure for November is now basically sewn up. Still keeping an eye on the Saturday evening / Sunday morning period after the cold front moves through...some of the GFS individual ensemble members and the JMA suggesting a wave offshore that could clip eastern sections with a period of snow / probably less than a 20% chance at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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