okie333 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Well, the GFS dropping the NAO into a hole again would be one of the causes: 00Z blocking is crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 6z GFS was a good step in the right direction for a snow event for the area http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/MRF_6z/mrfloop2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 November 1997 as well. Just be aware... there have been cold Novembers that preceded warm/not-snowy winters... November 1996 for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 November before our snowiest winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 6z GFS was a good step in the right direction for a snow event for the area http://www.meteo.psu...z/mrfloop2.html Large PV over Hudson Bay, suppresses the storm track. However, it hard to discern a trend now. The PV dynamics keep changing substantially run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Going to have to monitor AO/NAO development closely, as the stratosphere right now is still very cold, which is generally a signal against the initiation of strong blocking. However, we've seen it happen numerous times, that is, a distinct disconnect b/t the troposphere and the stratosphere. We often thing of the top-down effects w/ propagating warming event from the stratosphere, but we can have some perturbation of the stratosphereic vortex from the troposphere upward as well. The pattern persistence in the troposphere has been impressive regarding the neg NAO. We'll have to watch it going forward the next couple weeks, as I'm beginning to think there's a possibility we deal w/ the SE-ridge quite often in December due to the poor PNA signalling. Troughs at least initially may dump into the West/Plains w/ storm tracks through the Lakes. Should be interesting to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Don't we tend to get the best storms when the NAO is transitioning to positive rather than when it's bombing negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Don't we tend to get the best storms when the NAO is transitioning to positive rather than when it's bombing negative? Yes generally the + to - transitions feature rain events for the east coast, not all the time but usually. In Dec 2010, it took until the last couple weeks of the -NAO period to get the snowstorm. We had several weeks of a -NAO prior to that and a couple rainstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm very hesitant to believe the "cold and snowy" winter outlooks that have put out by both private and goverment sectors. It appears that we will have the development of a -NAO for the first half of December 2012. I suspect that it could be cold (normal to just below normal) for much of the first half of that month but with only several chances of 1-3 in. snow events. It appears that a more significant storm could develope by around December 20-26, 2012 as the NAO rises rapidly late in the month. In general, I don't get excited about snowy winters when November is either 1)cold or 2)produces multiple wintry events or even close calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 November won't end up that much below normal and will balance out october being a little above normal. In 1996 and 97 I believe both months were below normal. In 1996 we had a different setup than today and 1997 was a very strong nino obviously a totally different ballgame! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Anyone have what the following winters/prior Novembers looked like when compiling the following: A: our crappiest winters B: our coldest Novembers In simpler terms I'd like to know what November looked like prior to our biggest winter duds and what winters looked like after our coldest Novembers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Still think forecasting winters is a crapshoot. I would have never imagined receiving 7 inches of snow just one week after Hurricane Sandy. Many times the storms just sneak up on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm very hesitant to believe the "cold and snowy" winter outlooks that have put out by both private and goverment sectors. It appears that we will have the development of a -NAO for the first half of December 2012. I suspect that it could be cold (normal to just below normal) for much of the first half of that month but with only several chances of 1-3 in. snow events. It appears that a more significant storm could develope by around December 20-26, 2012 as the NAO rises rapidly late in the month. In general, I don't get excited about snowy winters when November is either 1)cold or 2)produces multiple wintry events or even close calls. November, 1995 produced a close call, and a wintry event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 November won't end up that much below normal and will balance out october being a little above normal. In 1996 and 97 I believe both months were below normal. In 1996 we had a different setup than today and 1997 was a very strong nino obviously a totally different ballgame! November is -5ish for all locations. That's a total departure of -90 through November 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Anyone have what the following winters/prior Novembers looked like when compiling the following: A: our crappiest winters B: our coldest Novembers In simpler terms I'd like to know what November looked like prior to our biggest winter duds and what winters looked like after our coldest Novembers. Coldest Novembers since 1971... 41.7 in 1976 43.0 in 1996 43.6 in 1995 44.4 in 1972 44.5 in 1997 44.6 in 1980 45.1 in 1971 45.3 in 2000 45.4 in 2007 45.7 in 1989 45.7 in 1986 45.8 in 2008 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 overrunning threat on the gfs. It's also coming in alot colder on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 overrunning threat on the gfs. It's also coming in alot colder on this run. Sorta in line with what WXRISK was saying yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 It still turns into a glc after truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 November is -5ish for all locations. That's a total departure of -90 through November 18th. I think after this week that will come down a bit and by months end we'll be around 2 below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I think after this week that will come down a bit and by months end we'll be around 2 below normal. This entire week will be average to slightly above average. Then from Sunday on, forecasts are for major negative departures with high temps staying in the low 40's for days. NYC should finish -4 to -6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 November 1997 as well. True.. though November 1996 was ENSO-neutral, while 1997 was raging Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 True.. though November 1996 was ENSO-neutral, while 1997 was raging Nino. 1996: -Neutral 1997: Strong Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 This entire week will be average to slightly above average. Then from Sunday on, forecasts are for major negative departures with high temps staying in the low 40's for days. NYC should finish -4 to -6. It would be one of the largest departures in recent memory if that happens, especially for november which has been averaging above normal for the last 10 to 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I think that Sandy was the main reason that we are running so cool here for November. Her massive circulation pulled in cold air from the west under the block into our area that had been above normal for so long. You can see how the pattern was altered after the landfall. The combination of snow and cold this month is a real outlier compared to the kind of warmth that we have been generally experiencing in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Check out all of the blocking up by the polar regions, and the huge trough in the United States on the 12z ECMWF ENS. Looks very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 18z GFS drops the motherload of the arctic over the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 It's becoming fairly obvious that the GFS is not having a good time with this, with every run being significantly different, although obviously the post-truncation factor goes into this as well. Although I'll say those Euro ensembles are pretty nice, with the triple negative indices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 On the 18z GFS, the storm becomes a monster PV over Quebec. It bottoms out at 941mb: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The new 00z GFS now brings in the cold air by this weekend with what could be a rain/snow squall event in some spots with a cold frontal passage. The pattern is cold beyond it although the NAO blocking isn't specifically impressive. Also interesting that the Euro ensembles are taking the MJO through a very familiar path -- running in circles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Posted this in the NE Thread, but the 00z GFS pattern at day 7-8 really reminds me of Nov 27-29 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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