MJO812 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 It sounds like DT is banking on the blocking squashing the storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 It looks as if a lot of the ensembles have an overrunning threat. Yeah I suppose it's a possibility if the block develops to the north and northeast of the storm by that time. But I don't think it will. Without that, the antecedent airmass is poor and there will be plenty of room for amplification and warm air advection in our part of the country with the surface low probably cutting west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Yeah I suppose it's a possibility if the block develops to the north and northeast of the storm by that time. But I don't think it will. Without that, the antecedent airmass is poor and there will be plenty of room for amplification and warm air advection in our part of the country with the surface low probably cutting west. Strongly agree. I don't think the pattern will be favorable enough until we get into early December w/ the potential -NAO developing an phase 1 MJO forcing. The end of Nov event is occurring in an "atmospheric shuffling" period if you will. Global teleconnectors just beginning to trend more conducive. It also may take awhile to get sustained cold into the Eastern US. The GFS scenario of a couple cutters w/ the SE-ridge burgeoning northeast is viable IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 im still standing behind my statement of thinking were probably not gonna start tracking legitmate winter storm threats for our area until the first/second week of december. yes we got a pretty anamolous aluetian ridge in play, but to me the rest is pretty much in the air still. in the next week we'll really get a better idea of if we can get a decent west based -NAO estblished in accordance with the aluetian ridge. we could get into some winter weather before but still in the uncertainty stages IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 1993-1994 pattern on the euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 1993-1994 pattern on the euro ensembles I guess that means a gradient...which was really unfavorable that winter for those who like snow south of about 40.3 N...and really good north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I'd be pretty surprised if the -NAO builds in early enough for the end of the month threat to actually be wintry for us. Models are often a bit too fast to develop the -NAO, anyway, and this also sounds like classic +NAO to -NAO transition event, which are often wet, but not wintry, for us. I am looking forward to December, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I'd be pretty surprised if the -NAO builds in early enough for the end of the month threat to actually be wintry for us. Models are often a bit too fast to develop the -NAO, anyway, and this also sounds like classic +NAO to -NAO transition event, which are often wet, but not wintry, for us. I am looking forward to December, however. i think the event around thanksgiving is gonna be the event as you said to get the transition from +nao to -nao going. what happens as far as how favorable it sets up for us is yet to be seen but i am so far encouraged for december. just important we dont hug every model run and look at the trends. i know we all want to try and avoid last winters debacle, but its already looking noticably better so hold tight folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Yeah I suppose it's a possibility if the block develops to the north and northeast of the storm by that time. But I don't think it will. Without that, the antecedent airmass is poor and there will be plenty of room for amplification and warm air advection in our part of the country with the surface low probably cutting west. Thanks for taking the time to discuss.....Regardless of what happens w/ that storm in late november, will it be a major player in helping the NAO go negative and be the beginnings to our pattern change we are all anxiously awaiting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 12z GFS operational was not too good as the cold air has a hard time making it down to this latitude with the main storm track remaining along the US / Canadien border or up through the Great Lakes...if it verifed, you would probably not be far from a positive monthly departure in the Park for November. Active pattern on the 18z run after day 7...a good deal colder as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 What a difference between this run and 12z . No GLC and much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 What a difference between this run and 12z . No GLC and much colder. Which should give you an idea of how much stock you should be putting into long range OP runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Which should give you an idea of how much stock you should be putting into long range OP runs. Agree. The ensembles should be the way to go . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Which should give you an idea of how much stock you should be putting into long range OP runs. Eh...they have some use...often they can ferret out a general pattern down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 with Central Park being at -5 right now for their dept from normal this month, when is the last time we had a month where it was -3 or greater for such a negative? i'd say we have a fairly good shot at keeping the DFN solidly in the -3 to -4 category when all is said and done for Nov. If you go back 35 years ago this would only be about 2.4 below normal for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 If you go back 35 years ago this would only be about 2.4 below normal for the month. Temps have gone up 2.6 F since 1977? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Models are going to be bouncing around like a kid high on sugar post D 7, as the pattern is in the process of changing globally. So I wouldn't take any one solution seriously, but the mean of numerous solutions after D 7 should provide a general clue as to the direction we're going. As stated before, the Aleutian ridge seems to be a lock. It's now a question of will/how much will the Atlantic do to help out the north pacific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Temps have gone up 2.6 F since 1977? I think he means our November averages have gone up tremendously over the last few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Active pattern on the 18z run after day 7...a good deal colder as well. The mean trough still seems a bit west of us which creates the risk for warmer storms, but the overall pattern on the 18z GFS is way below normal temperatures with shots of wintry precipitation possible. Those are some powerful high pressures coming into the Northern Plains...1040mb high coming down from Canada at Day 8 on the 18z. Our first taste of real winter temperatures looks to come after Thanksgiving...should see highs in the 30s possible on Saturday, and definitely by Sunday when we have -10C 850s. Brief warm-up and then an even stronger cold shot follows. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The mean trough still seems a bit west of us which creates the risk for warmer storms, but the overall pattern on the 18z GFS is way below normal temperatures with shots of wintry precipitation possible. Those are some powerful high pressures coming into the Northern Plains...1040mb high coming down from Canada at Day 8 on the 18z. Our first taste of real winter temperatures looks to come after Thanksgiving...should see highs in the 30s possible on Saturday, and definitely by Sunday when we have -10C 850s. Brief warm-up and then an even stronger cold shot follows. Impressive. Regardless of how this winter turns out, this is the first autumn in awhile (IMO) that finally feels like a step-down into the abyss of winter. Summer pretty much died by late September, 60s dominated October, and 40s/50s have dominated November with numerous nights well below freezing. The weenie inside me wants to say we're headed for a winter for the ages, but it's certainly been a more enjoyable fall than most in the past decade. We didn't have one torch month out of September/October/November -- that hasn't been the case lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 December decade climate stats...the 1990's were the warmest decade...There has been a steady rise in December temperatures over the years...starting with the 1970's... decade..ave.temp..high..low...ave.max/min..max..min...precipitation...snowfall 1870's......32.7......37.4......24.9....'.....................64......-2...2.88"...6.7" 1880's......33.6......40.0......26.5......57.3.....7.9....67......-6...3.28"...7.1" 1890's......35.9......42.3......29.9......58.8...12.0....66.......8...2.97"...4.3" 1900's......34.8......38.9......30.3......57.1...13.6....64.......4...3.95"...6.2" 1910's......34.1......39.4......25.0......59.4...10.8....64....-13...3.80"...7.5" 1920's......35.5......42.0......28.9......59.0...13.2....68.......7...3.49"...4.2" 1930's......35.9......41.0......30.0......61.2...11.7....68......-6...2.86"...4.3" 1940's......35.4......39.4......31.0......59.5...11.7....70......-4...3.39"...9.1" 1950's......36.8......41.3......29.4......59.7...12.0....67.......5...3.49"...4.7" 1960's......34.8......40.5......30.9......61.6...12.9....68.......4...3.70"...7.4" 1970's......37.4......41.1......29.9......61.6...17.6....67.......9...4.63"...1.7" 1980's......36.6......43.8......25.9......61.0...11.8....72......-1...3.14"...2.1" 1990's......39.5......43.2......32.4......64.0...16.5....75.....10...4.04"...2.9" 2000's......37.7......44.1......31.1......62.9...16.6....71.....11...4.45"...7.8" 2010's......38.1......43.3......32.8......61.0...20.5....62.....19...4.12".10.1" 1870- 2009.........35.6......41.0......29.0......60.2...12.9....68.......2...3.58"...5.4" 1980- 2009.........37.9......43.7......29.8......62.6...15.0....73.......7...3.88"...4.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 December decade climate stats...the 1990's were the warmest decade...There has been a steady rise in December temperatures over the years...starting with the 1970's... decade..ave.temp..high..low...ave.max/min..max..min...precipitation...snowfall 1870's......32.7......37.4......24.9....'.....................64......-2...2.88"...6.7" 1880's......33.6......40.0......26.5......57.3.....7.9....67......-6...3.28"...7.1" 1890's......35.9......42.3......29.9......58.8...12.0....66.......8...2.97"...4.3" 1900's......34.8......38.9......30.3......57.1...13.6....64.......4...3.95"...6.2" 1910's......34.1......39.4......25.0......59.4...10.8....64....-13...3.80"...7.5" 1920's......35.5......42.0......28.9......59.0...13.2....68.......7...3.49"...4.2" 1930's......35.9......41.0......30.0......61.2...11.7....68......-6...2.86"...4.3" 1940's......35.4......39.4......31.0......59.5...11.7....70......-4...3.39"...9.1" 1950's......36.8......41.3......29.4......59.7...12.0....67.......5...3.49"...4.7" 1960's......34.8......40.5......30.9......61.6...12.9....68.......4...3.70"...7.4" 1970's......37.4......41.1......29.9......61.6...17.6....67.......9...4.63"...1.7" 1980's......36.6......43.8......25.9......61.0...11.8....72......-1...3.14"...2.1" 1990's......39.5......43.2......32.4......64.0...16.5....75.....10...4.04"...2.9" 2000's......37.7......44.1......31.1......62.9...16.6....71.....11...4.45"...7.8" 2010's......38.1......43.3......32.8......61.0...20.5....62.....19...4.12".10.1" 1870- 2009.........35.6......41.0......29.0......60.2...12.9....68.......2...3.58"...5.4" 1980- 2009.........37.9......43.7......29.8......62.6...15.0....73.......7...3.88"...4.3" goes to show you in the 70's 80's and 90's it hardly snowed in December..many here are spoiled because of the last decade..I was spoiled as a kid in the 60's,and then hey Keith welcome to the real world and climate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 GFS looks much better before truncation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Major blocking develops in the mid to long range on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Regardless of how this winter turns out, this is the first autumn in awhile (IMO) that finally feels like a step-down into the abyss of winter. Summer pretty much died by late September, 60s dominated October, and 40s/50s have dominated November with numerous nights well below freezing. The weenie inside me wants to say we're headed for a winter for the ages, but it's certainly been a more enjoyable fall than most in the past decade. We didn't have one torch month out of September/October/November -- that hasn't been the case lately. exactly! this has been a november, for once, where it's made me feel like something notable may lie ahead. november is for dreaming, and the dreaming has been good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Major blocking develops in the mid to long range on the GFS. Well, the GFS dropping the NAO into a hole again would be one of the causes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 exactly! this has been a november, for once, where it's made me feel like something notable may lie ahead. november is for dreaming, and the dreaming has been good. Just be aware... there have been cold Novembers that preceded warm/not-snowy winters... November 1996 for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Very gradient like pattern, if the blocking ends up stronger in future runs, then maybe a late November storm isn't so far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Very gradient like pattern, if the blocking ends up stronger in future runs, then maybe a late November storm isn't so far fetched. Even if it develops faster than the step-down process I would bet on a Dec 4-8 storm rather than Nov 26-28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Just be aware... there have been cold Novembers that preceded warm/not-snowy winters... November 1996 for example. super-early snow is also typically a bad sign.... and we had that. i dont assume anything, but psychologically, the sustained chill of november and having already experienced a genuine snowstorm (not merely a sloppy snowfall) just gives one a sense of anticipation for the winter ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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