ag3 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 At the halfway mark EWR is a full 4.0 degrees below normal. Will be quite difficult to get this month at or above normal (barring some kind of 3-4 day torch) Even a 3-4 day torch won't do it really. Most stations will be -60 to -65 total monthly departure after today. It would pretty much require at least a week of a torch of +10 daily values on each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 . Looking good folks =) Image from Will from the SNE thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 . Looking good folks =) Image from Will from the SNE thread The models are starting to develop a bridge between the +PNA and Aleutian ridge which teleconnects to below normal heights in the East. Atlantic block still needs to gain latitude however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 John is it better to have a massive Aleutian Ridge or low? I always thought an Aleutian Low Teleconnects to a ridge over the West Coast (+PNA) It depends how amplified the Aleutian ridge is...if it is fairly suppressed with a vortex north of it, that is a horrible pattern (like last year)...if it is pretty far poleward like 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 (and on the models right now), that is going to be pretty good. It can create a gradient pattern though if the NAO is positive or neutral, so you'd want to see the NAO improve. An Aleutian low is a very good pattern for cold provided the low is SW of the Aleutians...the Aleutians cover a massive area so a lot of generalized terms with the word "Aleutians" get thrown around but it matters where in that area the max anomalies are. A max low anomaly SW of the Aleutians is an ideal pattern for a huge ridge in AK and the PNA region teleconnecting as one. We see this frequently in our good El Nino winters such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, and 1976 through 1978. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 High of 46.2F today in Dobbs Ferry after a low of 33.3F. Normals are 55/36 so that's -6 departure here. The next 4-5 days look to be carbon copies of today with the nights trending just slightly milder by Sunday. November will finish below normal across the East, impressively below normal if we get the -NAO/-EPO for the last few days like the 12z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 . Looking good folks =) Image from Will from the SNE thread That doesn't look that good to me. Low heights over the Davis Straits/Greenland, a neutral/negative PNA, an EPO that's trying to go negative but those higher heights ideally should be centered further east. There's a north atlantic ridge that doesn't really qualify as a -NAO. The Eastern US low heights as depicted would probably produce seasonably chilly air with no cross polar connection given the lack of NAO help. AO looks ok. Of course this is based on that particular map verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 it was 80 degrees in 1993 on this date...I thought the winter was doomed...wrong...This cool snowy first half of November was a prelude to what is to come or the highlight of the snow season?...Last year was like a batter getting a grand slam on his first at bat and then not getting another hit the rest of the season...This year ww started with two grand slams and we wait for the next hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 it was 80 degrees in 1993 on this date...I thought the winter was doomed...wrong...This cool snowy first half of November was a prelude to what is to come or the highlight of the snow season?...Last year was like a batter getting a grand slam on his first at bat and then not getting another hit the rest of the season...This year ww started with two grand slams and we wait for the next hit... IDK, I'd consider Sandy to be a late grand slam of the summer, not an early grand slam of the winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 That doesn't look that good to me. Low heights over the Davis Straits/Greenland, a neutral/negative PNA, an EPO that's trying to go negative but those higher heights ideally should be centered further east. There's a north atlantic ridge that doesn't really qualify as a -NAO. The Eastern US low heights as depicted would probably produce seasonably chilly air with no cross polar connection given the lack of NAO help. AO looks ok. Of course this is based on that particular map verifying. Down the road it could produce. That Aluetian ridge is on some serious roids and any semblance of ridging that develops towards the West Based NAO region would help dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Down the road it could produce. That Aluetian ridge is on some serious roids and any semblance of ridging that develops towards the West Based NAO region would help dramatically. Yeah extrapolating I agree, but that's getting into even more IF's. I think the Aleutian ridge is pretty locked in on modelling but the NAO is still questionable, which is an important factor for our necks of the woods. I think the folks in New England, particularly central northward have less to worry about for Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Yeah extrapolating I agree, but that's getting into even more IF's. I think the Aleutian ridge is pretty locked in on modelling but the NAO is still questionable, which is an important factor for our necks of the woods. I think the folks in New England, particularly central northward have less to worry about for Dec. I could see December starting out like 2010...very cold due to the strong Aleutian ridge moving the PV towards Canada but potential for cutters with the +NAO. I remember a couple of large cutters that month; the one on 12/13 dropped 1.25" snowfall here on the backside with -20C 850mb temperatures behind the front. The high was 22F the next day I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Here's the worst case scenario pattern for Dec. Last year's H5 set-up. The AK region is much better this year so I'm confident in saying we probably won't blowtorch this December. We could be warmer than normal but most likely we'll have occasional shots of snow unlike last dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I could see December starting out like 2010...very cold due to the strong Aleutian ridge moving the PV towards Canada but potential for cutters with the +NAO. I remember a couple of large cutters that month; the one on 12/13 dropped 1.25" snowfall here on the backside with -20C 850mb temperatures behind the front. The high was 22F the next day I think. I think we'll have Canada pretty cold by early December but we may not get the mechanism to drive the major cold southeast into our neck of the woods. Per the NAO dailies, the NAO was already strongly negative by late November 2010. Much depends on what we can do w/ the NAO, though more than likely it will be much more positive than early Dec 2010, and thus warmer temps for our area. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 It depends how amplified the Aleutian ridge is...if it is fairly suppressed with a vortex north of it, that is a horrible pattern (like last year)...if it is pretty far poleward like 2010-2011 and 1995-1996 (and on the models right now), that is going to be pretty good. It can create a gradient pattern though if the NAO is positive or neutral, so you'd want to see the NAO improve. An Aleutian low is a very good pattern for cold provided the low is SW of the Aleutians...the Aleutians cover a massive area so a lot of generalized terms with the word "Aleutians" get thrown around but it matters where in that area the max anomalies are. A max low anomaly SW of the Aleutians is an ideal pattern for a huge ridge in AK and the PNA region teleconnecting as one. We see this frequently in our good El Nino winters such as 2009-2010, 2002-2003, and 1976 through 1978. Yeah..agree. The Aleutian low can be very helpful if positioned correctly and if it's amplified...and a good NAO (specifically a west based one) really magnifies that. The one showing up on guidance is fairly amplified but they don't seem too excited about the prospects of any NAO ridging working westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Yeah..agree. The Aleutian low can be very helpful if positioned correctly and if it's amplified...and a good NAO (specifically a west based one) really magnifies that. The one showing up on guidance is fairly amplified but they don't seem too excited about the prospects of any NAO ridging working westward. I think we'd all agree that an Aleutian low/Nino pattern is generally more favorable for our area, but we have to work with what we've got. As Will noted an Aleutian ridge suppressed is basically worst case scenario, which is why we also have to hope modelling is correct in extending those high heights poleward and thus initiating the beloved cross polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I think we'll have Canada pretty cold by early December but we may not get the mechanism to drive the major cold southeast into our neck of the woods. Per the NAO dailies, the NAO was already strongly negative by late November 2010. Much depends on what we can do w/ the NAO, though more than likely it will be much more positive than early Dec 2010, and thus warmer temps for our area. ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.nao.index.b500101.current.ascii I don't think we want major cold.. Wouldn't that suppress the storm track? Normal cold with above precip chances I think is ideal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Another low in the low 20's coming up.. 27/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Here are the Euro weeklies from Brett Anderson http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/signs-of-a-cold-start-to-december-in-the-east/1619732 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 The GFS op and ensembles, have been consistent last couple days for a big storm over Eastern US at the end of Nov or start of Dec. The MJO forecasts phases 1-2 are supportive of one as well. Though I suspect this has more potential of being a pattern changer, than bringing snow to our area. We shall see. http://www.meteo.psu...nsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Whatever happened to the long duration nor easter that starts monday and ends weds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Whatever happened to the long duration nor easter that starts monday and ends weds? Its heading offshore. Mt. Holly put up a good explanation on their FB page: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 The 12z GFS closer with the second system cutting-off, next Wednesday: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Not sure what day the NAO ensembles are from for Allan's posting. Below shows that we do go negative for a few days, but then there is much uncertainty thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Not sure what day the NAO ensembles are from for Allan's posting. Below shows that we do go negative for a few days, but then there is much uncertainty thereafter. I noted this in the New England winter thread but it's applicable here too -- those GFS ensemble graphs have been gradually trending more positive in the past several days. Last week they were centered around a mean of -1 SD, now the mean of the ensembles is near neutral. Additionally, the observed NAO values have been more positive than progged. Point being, I'm not convinced that the NAO will go negative at all in the next 10-15 days at least. Tomorrow we may see the GFS ensembles completely abandon the idea of even a 3 day neg NAO. But even if it's technically negative for a few days, the H5 synoptic regime resembles a more +NAO out through D 10-12. If the Euro ensembles are to be believed, the GFS based guidance is wrong on the long range -NAO development. I think the main take-away point over the coming weeks is the Aleutian ridge development and probable extension northward, but the NAO signalling remains questionable. It make take awhile to get the transition over to the neg nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 It looks like the Bering Sea Ridge will dominate the pattern for the next 10 days or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 long range gfs brings in a west based -nao..Cutoff block and lots of cold and storminess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Its coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Posted by Joe Daleo 6z GFS Super Ens Corresponding Decembers looked like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 So....essentially colder than a witch's tittie and dry with a shot here or there of 2 in. snow event. Like I've said before, we don't live in Virginia or NC. We don't have to wish for brutal cold for snow. All I need is -NAO. Posted by Joe Daleo 6z GFS Super Ens Corresponding Decembers looked like this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 long range gfs brings in a west based -nao..Cutoff block and lots of cold and storminess. Beautiful pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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