bluewave Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 It's interesting to see NYC start out November with each of the first ten days with a negative daily temperature departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 The Euro completely caved on it's previous 500mb solution. Don't know yet if it will go to what the GFS has, but it is definitely way different than what it had before and closer to the GFS at 500mb. It is diving energy all the way down from Canada to the Southeast this time. Looks interesting. Looks like it will definitely stir up a coastal this time. Coastal starting to form near the Carolina Coast at 210 hrs. Low deepening near Cape Hatteras at 228 hrs. It deepens it to 996mb before it cuts off at 240 hrs. It is quite warm with no high pressure to the north. However, at 240 hrs when it cuts off, it looks awfully close to me to dropping the entire polar vortex in there. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 It's interesting to see NYC start out November with each of the first ten days with a negative daily temperature departure. the first ten days averaged 43.0.....I did a quick check for 1879...It averaged 40.9 for the first ten days...1951 averaged 44.2...November 1951 had a cold November but an above average December thru Feb...lets hope that doesn't happen again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 the first ten days averaged 43.0.....I did a quick check for 1879...It averaged 40.9 for the first ten days...1951 averaged 44.2...November 1951 had a cold November but an above average December thru Feb...lets hope that doesn't happen again... It looks like the last real shot of cold that we saw in November was the second half of November 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 It looks like the last real shot of cold that we saw in November was the second half of November 2008. this is true...The last three Novembers failed to get below freezing...2006 also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 The Euro completely caved on it's previous 500mb solution. Don't know yet if it will go to what the GFS has, but it is definitely way different than what it had before and closer to the GFS at 500mb. It is diving energy all the way down from Canada to the Southeast this time. Looks interesting. Looks like it will definitely stir up a coastal this time. Coastal starting to form near the Carolina Coast at 210 hrs. Low deepening near Cape Hatteras at 228 hrs. It deepens it to 996mb before it cuts off at 240 hrs. It is quite warm with no high pressure to the north. However, at 240 hrs when it cuts off, it looks awfully close to me to dropping the entire polar vortex in there. Just saying. Nah the polar vortex isn't that mobiel. The southern stream would have to be the one to come to it, which would happen near Greenland if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 It looks like the last real shot of cold that we saw in November was the second half of November 2008. Yeah I remember that string of 3-5 days with high temps barely cracking freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Nah the polar vortex isn't that mobiel. The southern stream would have to be the one to come to it, which would happen near Greenland if it did. Looks like a very -AO developing at the end of the Euro run, displacing the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 11, 2012 Author Share Posted November 11, 2012 We need disturbance with polar or artic air, to phase with this storm. That's not looking very likely, with the polar jet running so far north. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 4" of rain spread out over a few days isn't a big deal if the winds aren't that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 No talk about the 18z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 No talk about the 18z run? Honestly, I'm quite confused by this run. Maybe someone who can better read this would be able to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 looks cold and stormy towards the end but its in fantasy land for now...lets see where we stand in a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 What a horrible pattern going forward on the euro ensembles. At least the GEFS keeps on showing the NAO going negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 KHWV (Shirley) already up to 56°F as the fog had dissipated. Light snow being reported at KSMQ (Somerville). Probably a mistake on the ASOS. Strange morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 My wife's flight that was due to land at LGA was rerouted to ALB due to fog!! How the hell do they reroute a flight from freaking Seattle to a place hours away?? I hate Delta! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 My wife's flight that was due to land at LGA was rerouted to ALB due to fog!! How the hell do they reroute a flight from freaking Seattle to a place hours away?? I hate Delta! you'd rather the plane crash? 1stworldproblems relax man. it will cost them more money to do what they are doing, i am certain they aren't doing it to be dicks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Wow, this place just died today... Anyone have any comments on the upcoming pattern? Is it that horrendous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Wow, this place just died today... Anyone have any comments on the upcoming pattern? Is it that horrendous? Looks seasonable but GoA low is preventing cold air from moving into the CONUS. Low off the coast days 8-10 on 12z Euro but looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I know that the GOA low is the kiss of death as long as it stays there. How long is it progged to stay there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 The Euro likely would be snow with that precipitation that comes back here toward the end of the run when the low retrogrades next Wednesday. HPC is also showing some concern about that high that is up in Canada and the storm off the coast if you read through the lines. That high has moved into Quebec from far Northern Canada into that location and is around 1040. It has 850's below 0 and temps in the low to middle 30's at the surface, just like the last storm. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 159 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012 VALID 12Z THU NOV 15 2012 - 12Z MON NOV 19 2012 ...UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST... ...COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO PREVAIL IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...ONSHORE FLOW SHAPING UP ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC SHORELINE... FOR THE MOST PART...THE MEDIUM FORECAST THROUGH DAY5-6 REMAINS UNCHANGED ACROSS THE EAST WITH THE PRELIMINARY GRAPHICS COMPRISED OF A 30/30 12/00Z ECMWF-GEFS MEAN AND 20/20 OPERATIONAL 12/00Z ECMWF/GFS. IT WAS DIFFICULT TO USE THE 00Z CANADIAN MEANS/OPERATIONAL GIVEN ITS LACK OF CONTINUITY OFF THE EAST AND WEST COASTS. SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE SOUTHEAST...IS SLOWLY ERODED FROM THE WEST AND NORTH BY A SERIES OF LOW-AMPLITUDE H7-H7 WAVES THAT MIGRATE WSW-TO-ESE ALONG AND NORTH OF 45N LATITUDE AND HAVE MORE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR CANADA THAN THE UNITED STATES. THE LACK OF A DEFINITIVE STORM TRACK IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND BENIGN PATTERN DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALLOWS FOR THE SURFACE RIDGE AND HIGH TO ACTUALLY BUILD/STRENGTHEN RATHER THAN WEAKEN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. THAT'S THE SOLUTION NOW TAKEN ALONG/EAST OF THE EAST COAST SHORELINE...FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...THE STORM TRACK BECOMES SO PERSISTENT AT HIGH LATITUDE...THAT THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE SLOWLY BECOMES A SERIES OF VERY WEAK BACK-DOOR TYPE COLD FRONTS THAT MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. IN TURN...THE TAIL END OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC FRONT BECOMES THE AREA/REGION FOR BAROCLINICITY...INVOF BERMUDA BETWEEN 30-40N LATITUDE. FOR SEVERAL CYCLES NOW...THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE DISPLAYED THE DEVELOPMENT OF 2 DISTURBANCES ALONG 65-70W. DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING THIS REGION OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR FUTURE DETAILS SO LONG AS THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS STATIONARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL QUEBEC. ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...THE ECMWF/GEFS MEANS AND BOTH OF THEIR RESPECTIVE 12/00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS MODELS HAVE SETTLED IN ON A DEEP H5 LOW SOLUTION INVOF 52N 140W BY DAY 6. AND THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO CARRY A WEAK CUTOFF OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...THEN SWEEP THE SYSTEM INLAND IN THE DAY4-5 PERIOD AHEAD OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER MARITIME AIRMASS LODGED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN THE 00Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE SCOOT A OPEN WAVE EASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THE GEFS MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY FASTER...WITH THE ECMWF A TAD SLOWER. MOST OF NOT ALL THE VARIANCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE DAY 7 PERIOD AND IS A DIRECT RESULT OF PERSISTENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST...COUPLED WITH AN EMERGING CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS FOR UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. 12Z CYCLE UPDATE... IN SHORT...LITTLE CHANGE DAYS 3-5. BOTH COASTS NORTH OF 35N SHOULD BE UNDER BROAD MOISTURE ADVECTION DAYS 6-7. FINAL GRAPHICS USED ASPECTS OF THE 12/12Z GFS-UKMET-ECMWF TO TIGHTEN THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST (DAYS 6-7). A DECENT 8-12MB GRADIENT FROM SEA-ACV AND WITH THE FINAL GRAPHICS DRAWN FOR EXACTLY 12Z...WOULD EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL GRADIENT WOULD BE MORE OF A COASTAL JET ENHANCEMENT GIVEN THE VERY SLOW SEWD PROGRESSION OF THE PARENT SFC CYCLONE IN THE SERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE 12-18MB GRADIENT FROM MTP-HSE DAYS 6-7 SEEMED A REASONABLE STARTING POINT GIVEN THE 12Z GFS/UKMET/ECMWF DO NOT BUDGE MUCH FROM A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 1032MB-1038MB RANGE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA FROM DAY 5 THROUGH 7. VOJTESAK Looks seasonable but GoA low is preventing cold air from moving into the CONUS. Low off the coast days 8-10 on 12z Euro but looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 GFS Now has significant snow throughout much of our region on Sunday night, Monday, into Tuesday, on the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 GFS Now has significant snow throughout much of our region on Sunday night and Monday on the 18z run. Nope... looks far too warm. Perhaps wet snow in the highest elevations but even that may be a stretch on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Nope, 850's below 0 and surface temps in the lower 30's with a 1043mb high over Quebec. That is snow, even if soundings don't show it yet, which I don't care about because the Euro also shows snow on Wednesday morning and the GFS showed rain with the last storm with an even weaker high over Quebec. That is snow.... Or will be if that depiction actually happens. Nope... looks far too warm. Perhaps wet snow in the highest elevations but even that may be a stretch on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 I know that the GOA low is the kiss of death as long as it stays there. How long is it progged to stay there? The 12z GFS Ensembles still have a GoA low at 300 hours, but it's dying off as the Aleutian ridge amplifies...we also have a -NAO building in: Week 4 of the Euro Weeklies has a powerful Aleutian ridge as well with a -NAO developing; this causes it to show lower than normal 500mb heights over the East, meaning an increased chance of storminess and cold weather. I think the pattern looks fairly benign for most of November, but we should see an interesting start to December if the Aleutian ridge amplifies as modeled. It could be a gradient pattern if the NAO stays in positive territory, but not sure on that. Overall, I'd expect average temperatures the next 2-3 weeks with a gradual improvement in the Pacific pattern. There's a chance for a Nor'easter right before Thanksgiving, but it will probably be a rain event with a modified high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 every model develops a cutoff under the s canadian high next weekend/early next week. it could be a long duration coastal storm for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Nope, 850's below 0 and surface temps in the lower 30's with a 1043mb high over Quebec. That is snow, even if soundings don't show it yet, which I don't care about because the Euro also shows snow on Wednesday morning and the GFS showed rain with the last storm with an even weaker high over Quebec. That is snow.... Or will be if that depiction actually happens. There's a chance for snow in the NW suburbs as the storm starts, but 850s do go above freezing eventually. It's a close call at 168: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Nope, 850's below 0 and surface temps in the lower 30's with a 1043mb high over Quebec. That is snow, even if soundings don't show it yet, which I don't care about because the Euro also shows snow on Wednesday morning and the GFS showed rain with the last storm with an even weaker high over Quebec. That is snow.... Or will be if that depiction actually happens. There's a big difference between saying "I think that will be snow because such and such" and saying "The GFS shows snow". One is true, the other is a lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 And it has as monster Nor'easter that would absolutely be a major snowstorm the following Monday after Thanksgiving, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 The GFS shows temps at 850 below 0 and surface temps in the lower 30's in Northern New Jersey. That is snow as far as I can tell. HPC has already expressed their concern in that regard. No one is lying here. Here are the readings for Caldwell, NJ, 850 is below 0, even at Caldwell MON 12Z 19-NOV 3.3 -0.1 1024 90 100 0.27 564 545 MON 18Z 19-NOV 2.8 -0.1 1022 96 100 0.38 562 545 TUE 00Z 20-NOV 2.4 -0.6 1023 96 100 0.20 562 544 Here is Andover MON 12Z 19-NOV 2.1 -0.6 1025 89 99 0.15 564 544 MON 18Z 19-NOV 2.2 -0.3 1023 96 100 0.34 563 544 TUE 00Z 20-NOV 1.5 -0.8 1024 97 100 0.19 562 543 TUE 06Z 20-NOV 1.1 -0.3 1021 95 99 0.03 560 543 Here is Sussex MON 12Z 19-NOV 1.7 -0.7 1025 88 99 0.10 564 544 MON 18Z 19-NOV 2.4 -0.7 1024 93 99 0.26 563 544 TUE 00Z 20-NOV 1.4 -1.3 1025 96 100 0.17 562 543 TUE 06Z 20-NOV 0.9 -0.4 1022 95 98 0.03 560 543 Here is Morristown MON 12Z 19-NOV 3.1 0.1 1024 91 100 0.31 564 545 MON 18Z 19-NOV 2.8 0.1 1022 95 100 0.39 562 545 TUE 00Z 20-NOV 2.4 -0.3 1023 96 100 0.18 562 544 There's a big difference between saying "I think that will be snow because such and such" and saying "The GFS shows snow". One is true, the other is a lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.