Snow_Miser Posted November 1, 2012 Share Posted November 1, 2012 The possibility for some precipitation seems to be emerging from a potential storm system next week. There also seems to be a possibility for some flakes to be seen in the area as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 There will may or may not be snowfall, but the question is when? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 "The possibility of some QPF" doesn't make any sense, it's always something that bothered me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 "The possibility of some QPF" doesn't make any sense, it's always something that bothered me. Somehow QPF has morphed into something that means precipitation. If people want to use something as an abbreviation of previpitation they should just stick to precip or liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yeah, I did misuse that abbreviation. I Inserted precipitation instead of QPF as Sundog suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 The 00z GFS appears to be faster with the energy associated with the northern stream than the 18z GFS and is closed off at h5 with the southern vorticy for the storm system for next week. May lead to a more amplified solution this run with an earlier phase between the two features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 GFS looks to give the area a decent amount of rain with this system. It was somewhat weak again like the 18z GFS was with this system. Not good for the recovery efforts with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Yep, more amplified than the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 6z GFS, 0z euro still show a coastal rain maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The Euro shows 6-12 inches of snow for Northwest New Jersey, with some accumulation for the rest of Northern New Jersey as well. 6z GFS, 0z euro still show a coastal rain maker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Looking at the Euro, I'm most concerned about strong winds and coastal flooding again. The low is only around 990mb south of LI. But there is 1033mb high to the north. Fortunately, were between a full and new moon, next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 I have access to the high resolution Euro model from Wright Weather ( the same source that the Weather Channel and CNN use ) and it shows the low in that location at sub 988mb. With total snow accumulations of 6-12 inches for Warren and Sussex Counties in Northern New Jersey, 3-6 inches in Morris and Passaic Counties, and 1-3 inches for Bergen, Essex, Hudson, and Union Counties. I would be very concerned about not only the winds, but also the accumulation of the heavy snow on the trees that are currently leaning on power lines all over the place. If they don't get those off the power lines soon, it will cause further power outages, or people who have had power restored to lose it again. Looking at the Euro, I'm most concerned about strong winds and coastal flooding again. The low is only around 990mb south of LI. But there is 1033mb high to the north. Fortunately, were between a full and new moon, next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 The 00z ECMWF was very close to my area at KSMQ. If the 00z ECM solution were to verify, the precipitation type may keep on switching from a very cold rain to a very wet snow, until the end where there may be backend snow potential IMBY, but such details are meaningless with the storm being 5-6 days away and such details can very easily change. The warmest the 2 meter temperatures become on the ECMWF when it is precipitating is 36.6 Degrees F for KSMQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 And keep in mind that the surface temps are typically around 2 degrees too warm on the Euro with these types of situations. The 00z ECMWF was very close to my area at KSMQ. If the 00z ECM solution were to verify, the precipitation type may keep on switching from a very cold rain to a very wet snow, until the end where there may be backend snow potential IMBY, but such details are meaningless with the storm being 5-6 days away and such details can very easily change. The warmest the 2 meter temperatures become on the ECMWF when it is precipitating is 36.6 Degrees F for KSMQ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 And keep in mind that the surface temps are typically around 2 degrees too warm on the Euro with these types of situations. Yeah, the BL temperatures are generally a bit too warm on the ECMWF. Doesn't look to be a very warm storm by any means for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 12z UKMET looks exactly like the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 12z UKMET looks exactly like the 0z Euro. Wow, that's pretty scary how they really do look quite alike. Not sure how much precip would be in the area and what the precip type would be with that type of a scenario for the NW Burbs. 12z GGEM and 12z GFS are both OTS. The GFS did not phase the northern and southern streams, so the southern piece went out to sea. Timing will be everything with regard to the impacts from this storm. Usually the GGEM being OTS is a red flag for a storm along the coast since it tends to overphase systems, but the UKMET being so far west is usually a red flag for a very far east and strung out system. We shall see what the 12z ECMWF shows, and if it holds with it's 00z solution or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Remember the GFS was out to sea the longest with Hurricane Sandy and the Canadian, as expected did not do very well wither her either. The UKMET and ECMWF looking exactly alike is scary. If the ECMWF comes in with a similar solution again, it is pretty much a lock. Wow, that's pretty scary how they really do look quite alike. Not sure how much precip would be in the area and what the precip type would be with that type of a scenario for the NW Burbs. 12z GGEM and 12z GFS are both OTS. The GFS did not phase the northern and southern streams, so the southern piece went out to sea. Timing will be everything with regard to the impacts from this storm. Usually the GGEM being OTS is a red flag for a storm along the coast since it tends to overphase systems, but the UKMET being so far west is usually a red flag for a very far east and strung out system. We shall see what the 12z ECMWF shows, and if it holds with it's 00z solution or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 2, 2012 Author Share Posted November 2, 2012 Remember the GFS was out to sea the longest with Hurricane Sandy and the Canadian, as expected did not do very well wither her either. The UKMET and ECMWF looking exactly alike is scary. If the ECMWF comes in with a similar solution again, it is pretty much a lock. The GFS did pretty poorly initially with Hurricane Sandy, but it also nailed the landfall of Tropical Storm Debby back in June. While the ECMWF does generally have a better track record than the GFS, the ECMWF is not always right either with every single scenario it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 12z EURO has initialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 That is true, but honestly, 90% of the time the Euro is the hand's on favorite and I have seen countless times where the GFS was out to sea. It seems to have a tremendous amount of difficulty handling strong East Coast storms for some reason. It usually sees them, but puts them way out to sea until you get within 5 days. I heard a certain weather person years ago say that he does not use the GFS until it is within 4 days. That appears to be a pretty good rule of thumb. It does not hurt to look at it, but when the Euro shows the storm closer to the coast, that is usually what happens. The GFS did pretty poorly initially with Hurricane Sandy, but it also nailed the landfall of Tropical Storm Debby back in June. While the ECMWF does generally have a better track record than the GFS, the ECMWF is not always right either with every single scenario it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Euro at 120 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012110212®ion=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 at 132 hrs. it has a sub 992mb low near the Delmarva coast with a complete capture of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The low sits over the Delmarva at 138 hrs, drawing warm air in and ensuring everyone is rain around here. Far different than the GFS. Gee, let me wonder which one is correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 at 144 hrs. it has the low near Cape May as a sub 992mb. Warm air drawn in and rain everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 12z Euro has a 988 low on Ocean City, Maryland. This is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 The low sits over the Delmarva at 138 hrs, drawing warm air in and ensuring everyone is rain around here. Far different than the GFS. Gee, let me wonder which one is correct? I hope not...That would mean more flooding along the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 This run looks more amped than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Bad news for the Northeast coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 well that's not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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