2013 Fall Medium Range Discussion

[donsutherland1]

A quick evening note:

The most recent CFSv2 forecast for Weeks 3 and 4 bears similarities to the AO/PNA- cases.

CFSv2:

AO & PNA- Cases:

[usedtobe]

Wes, I used the new 12Z GFS analogs and did the opposite of you and went back 4 days. Interesting result which indicates an Arctic outbreak and possible deep low pressure occur prior to the analog dates.

today's analog

Animated 5H and 1000mb surface

I don't see enough cold air to get that look, certainly the 12Z Euro or it ens mean don't support that much cold prior to the D+11, in fact the euro ens mean is warmer than normal along the east coast at 240 hrs. Of course, I may be influenced by the fact that I basically don't see this as being a particularly cold pattern with there being no real riding across western Canada to bring cold into our area.

[Ginx snewx]

I don't see enough cold air to get that look, certainly the 12Z Euro or it ens mean don't support that much cold prior to the D+11, in fact the euro ens mean is warmer than normal along the east coast at 240 hrs. Of course, I may be influenced by the fact that I basically don't see this as being a particularly cold pattern with there being no real riding across western Canada to bring cold into our area.

Yea just was using a GFS snap shot in time analog as you did only in reverse. Interesting post by Don, that is some pretty darn cold in NE. What was interesting about the Euro run was the indication of a deep possibly closed 5 H with an attendant surface reflection. Today's analogs had many cases of that type of feature.

[donsutherland1]

Yea just was using a GFS snap shot in time analog as you did only in reverse. Interesting post by Don, that is some pretty darn cold in NE. What was interesting about the Euro run was the indication of a deep possibly closed 5 H with an attendant surface reflection. Today's analogs had many cases of that type of feature.

Although the AO/PNA composite shows some impressive cold anomalies, my main point concerns area in which cool anomalies might develop, not the magnitude of cold.

I don't think severe cold is likely anytime soon (EPO+, PNA- and anomalous warmth in much of the Arctic). If the EPO went negative and the PNA went positive, the very cold air in Alaska/western Canada could be forced into eastern North America. Right now, I don't see that happening, at least not during December. The risk of a period where the PNA goes positive will likely increase in January.

[easternsnowman]

warmer than normal is the new norm, it has been going on since march 2010 with the exception of a few months. In fact over 80% of the months since that time have been above and those with the exception of last month that have been barely below normal!

[kdskidoo]

and lets not forget that "normal" isn't the same as it was 30 years ago. in most areas it's at least 2-3 degrees warmer than back then.

[Absolute Humidity]

Yet the vast majority of snowfall for many has occurred in Oct and Nov, so far this and last season.

[Srain]

The overnight guidance although somewhat muddled by lack of consistency in the GFS/GEFS suggest a progressive/stormy pattern ahead during the medium range for areas from the Great Basin into the Plains.

HPC:

VALID 12Z FRI DEC 14 2012 - 12Z MON DEC 17 2012

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING NEAR GREENLAND AND OVER THE E-CNTRL PACIFIC

TELECONNECTS TO A MEAN TROF NEAR 110W FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF

OF THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. MULTI-DAY MEANS LATE IN THE FCST

SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT RETROGRESSION OF THE E-CNTRL PAC

POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES... WHICH WOULD FAVOR A MODERATE ERN PAC

MEAN TROF AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CONUS WITH AN IMPLIED

POSITIVELY TILTED TROF AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE LOWER 48.

IMPORTANT DIFFS IN SHRTWV DETAILS WITHIN NRN STREAM FLOW FROM THE

NERN PAC ACROSS SRN CANADA/NRN CONUS ALREADY DEVELOP AROUND THE

START OF THE PERIOD... AND SIGNIFICANT DIFFS BECOME EVIDENT WITH

UPSTREAM FLOW BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS WELL. THUS

CONFIDENCE IN FCST DETAILS IS BELOW AVERAGE THRU THE PERIOD.

EARLY IN THE FCST THE 00Z/06Z GFS RUNS ARE NOTICEABLY

SLOWER/SHARPER/MORE AMPLIFIED THAN MOST OTHER SOLNS WITH TWO

SEPARATE SHRTWVS... ONE REACHING WRN NOAM LATE THIS WEEK AND A

DOWNSTREAM SHRTWV BRUSHING THE NRN TIER CONUS. THE GEFS MEAN ALSO

SHARES SOME ASPECTS OF THE GFS RUNS. THE TREND TOWARD QUICKER

PROGRESSION SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES IN THE SHORT

TERM AND MEDIUM RANGE SEEMS TO FAVOR LEANING TOWARD THE MORE

PROGRESSIVE GUIDANCE CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECENS

MEAN/UKMET/CANADIAN MEAN AND TO SOME DEGREE 00Z CMC. IN THIS

MAJORITY CLUSTER THE SYSTEM TRACKING OUT OF THE WEST AND THRU THE

PLAINS WOULD TRACK INTO THE GRTLKS REGION INSTEAD OF THE MORE

SUPPRESSED GFS/GEFS MEAN SCENARIO. SUCH A SOLN IS ALSO CONSISTENT

WITH THE MEAN PATTERN ALREADY ESTABLISHED AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE

INTO THE MEDR PERIOD.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT... ASIDE

FROM A GRADUAL SLOWING TREND... WITH A TROF AMPLIFYING INTO THE

WRN HALF OF THE CONUS BY DAYS 6-7 SUN-MON. GFS RUNS ARE FASTER

WITH UPSTREAM FLOW AND BRING A RIDGE INTO THE WEST. THE 00Z GEFS

MEAN IS SOMEWHAT OF A BLEND OF THE TWO SOLNS OVER THE NRN PAC SO

ITS WRN CONUS HGTS ARE MODESTLY LOWER THAN SEEN IN THE GFS. BY

DAY 7 THE ECMWF MEAN IS NOT QUITE AS SLOW/DEEP AS THE 00Z ECMWF

WITH THE CONUS TROF. THE CANADIAN MEAN IS BROADER AND MORE

PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF MEAN BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT OF THE GEFS

MEAN. GIVEN THAT GFS/GEFS MEAN SOLNS APPEAR SOMEWHAT OUT OF PHASE

RELATIVE TO WHAT TELECONNECTIONS SUPPORT OVER THE CONUS BY DAY

7... PREFERENCE CONTINUES MORE WITH THE ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN BY DAYS

6-7.

DAYS 3-5 THU-SAT START WITH A NEARLY EVEN BLEND OF THE 00Z

ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN/UKMET. DAYS 6-7 SUN-MON USE A 70/30 BLEND OF THE

00Z ECMWF MEAN/ECMWF WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN EMPHASIZED DUE TO THE

OPERATIONAL RUN LEANING TOWARD THE AMPLIFIED EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE

SPREAD WITH THE WRN TROF BY THAT TIME FRAME.

[blizzard1024]

warmer than normal is the new norm, it has been going on since march 2010 with the exception of a few months. In fact over 80% of the months since that time have been above and those with the exception of last month that have been barely below normal!

I agree with this comment whole heartily. The short term climate has changed and it is very hard to get below normal months anymore. You are correct that it seems to have begun with March 2010 and in fact that whole warm season was insanely mild in 2010...then winter 2010-11 was very good in the northeast. Then last winter hit and in the my 35+ years of following winter in upstate NY/far northern PA, I have NEVER seen such a mild AND snowless winter. I remember some of the more mild ones... 1982-83 (18" in January) among other big snowstorms, 1988-89 (average temps but snowless), 1989-90 (a real december to remember!!!), 1990-91 and 1991-92 poor winters but at least some cold...then the rocking mid 90s began. even the mild 1994-95 ended up pretty good February on. 1997-98 was very mild but we had two major snowstorms of 12-18". 1998-99 was mild too but March we got record snows of 36"!! 2001-2002 was very very mild but we got a 13" dump of snow. winters 2002-2003 thru 2004-2005 were cold and snowy but not the same league as some of the winters of the 60s and 70s. Then 2005-2006 sucked pretty bad except december was cold. 2006-2007 started late but became awesome by the end of January (the pattern actually changed after a mild December...imagine that!).

Then last winter hit which was surreal in my books...then March 2012 was 12 degrees above normal with the whole warm season until November very warm. It is like I am in southern PA or even MD! November cooled down and was 2 degrees below normal. But compared to the +3 to +6 departures and the occasional +7 to 12 we have seen the past few years...the below normals are rare and if they occur they are just 1-3 below for the most part. This December is running 8 degrees above normal so far, so unless we get blasted with arctic air and below zero temperatures before the end of the month...it will be above normal to make for the warmest year on record around here since records began in 1950. I am NOT saying that CO2 and all the highly uncertain AGW stuff is the reason but at least in the short term we are in a very mild pattern across much of the eastern U.S. Most of the cold is not on our side of the hemisphere...although it is in AK and western Canada at least. Plus the southeast ridge won't go away and thus we are seeing this darn reverse PNA pattern which is killing us and wasting nice blocking north of us. I hope it will change but as has been stated.... the models keep changing the pattern beyond 7 or 8 days and it keeps getting pushed back...just like last year. I posted on this forum that this year was looking eerily similar to last winter and they pulled the thread!!! My credentials of a meteorologist were being questioned. A real meteorologist knows that longer range forecasting is a crap shoot. Analogs are all bias to the cold of the 1960s and 1970s when we had negative NAOs and a negative PDO so most winter forecasts end up calling for cold. Analogs are tenuous at best for forecasting winter. They don't even work very well for real operational meteorology where we have to forecast storms etc.

I am a skiier and last year was terrible. I was hoping for an early start to this season...but it is looking like last season all over again. I don't care about getting snowstorms anymore...these are a pipe dream at least for now...but all I am hoping for is temperatures in the 30s and 20s so they can make snow and get the ski resorts in upstate NY open by Christmas break!!!! All I am asking for is just 3-5 degrees above normal...is that too much?

[Isotherm]

I agree with this comment whole heartily. The short term climate has changed and it is very hard to get below normal months anymore. You are correct that it seems to have begun with March 2010 and in fact that whole warm season was insanely mild in 2010...then winter 2010-11 was very good in the northeast. Then last winter hit and in the my 35+ years of following winter in upstate NY/far northern PA, I have NEVER seen such a mild AND snowless winter. I remember some of the more mild ones... 1982-83 (18" in January) among other big snowstorms, 1988-89 (average temps but snowless), 1989-90 (a real december to remember!!!), 1990-91 and 1991-92 poor winters but at least some cold...then the rocking mid 90s began. even the mild 1994-95 ended up pretty good February on. 1997-98 was very mild but we had two major snowstorms of 12-18". 1998-99 was mild too but March we got record snows of 36"!! 2001-2002 was very very mild but we got a 13" dump of snow. winters 2002-2003 thru 2004-2005 were cold and snowy but not the same league as some of the winters of the 60s and 70s. Then 2005-2006 sucked pretty bad except december was cold. 2006-2007 started late but became awesome by the end of January (the pattern actually changed after a mild December...imagine that!).

Then last winter hit which was surreal in my books...then March 2012 was 12 degrees above normal with the whole warm season until November very warm. It is like I am in southern PA or even MD! November cooled down and was 2 degrees below normal. But compared to the +3 to +6 departures and the occasional +7 to 12 we have seen the past few years...the below normals are rare and if they occur they are just 1-3 below for the most part. This December is running 8 degrees above normal so far, so unless we get blasted with arctic air and below zero temperatures before the end of the month...it will be above normal to make for the warmest year on record around here since records began in 1950. I am NOT saying that CO2 and all the highly uncertain AGW stuff is the reason but at least in the short term we are in a very mild pattern across much of the eastern U.S. Most of the cold is not on our side of the hemisphere...although it is in AK and western Canada at least. Plus the southeast ridge won't go away and thus we are seeing this darn reverse PNA pattern which is killing us and wasting nice blocking north of us. I hope it will change but as has been stated.... the models keep changing the pattern beyond 7 or 8 days and it keeps getting pushed back...just like last year. I posted on this forum that this year was looking eerily similar to last winter and they pulled the thread!!! My credentials of a meteorologist were being questioned. A real meteorologist knows that longer range forecasting is a crap shoot. Analogs are all bias to the cold of the 1960s and 1970s when we had negative NAOs and a negative PDO so most winter forecasts end up calling for cold. Analogs are tenuous at best for forecasting winter. They don't even work very well for real operational meteorology where we have to forecast storms etc.

I am a skiier and last year was terrible. I was hoping for an early start to this season...but it is looking like last season all over again. I don't care about getting snowstorms anymore...these are a pipe dream at least for now...but all I am hoping for is temperatures in the 30s and 20s so they can make snow and get the ski resorts in upstate NY open by Christmas break!!!! All I am asking for is just 3-5 degrees above normal...is that too much?

The sfc temp composite of the past 4 winters -- 2008-09 through 2011-12, is colder than normal across the mid latitudes of the entire nern hemisphere, including the USA.

[Isotherm]

The year to date global temp anomaly map shows that the CONUS has been the warmest area relative to normal. Plenty of cool regions globally.

[WidreMann]

The sfc temp composite of the past 4 winters -- 2008-09 through 2011-12, is colder than normal across the mid latitudes of the entire nern hemisphere, including the USA.

I hate to break it to you, but those cold anomalies in Russia are on the same latitudes as central and northern Canada. Not quite mid-latitude, and certainly not on the same latitudes as the CONUS.

[blizzard1024]

The year to date global temp anomaly map shows that the CONUS has been the warmest area relative to normal. Plenty of cool regions globally.

My post was not talking globally....just CONUS...especially the east. It has been warm relative the the 1981-2010 normals which are 2-3 degrees F warmer

than the normals compared to 1961-1990 in the winter. Globally temperatures are about the same as they have been since 1998 as per AMSU and RSS data. This is a short term climate variability that sucks for us in the east especially. In no way did I mention that it is related to AGW...i am glad that it is

VERY cold in other parts of the world relative to normal. But when will it be OUR turn!!! Reverse PNA and persistent southeast ridge has got to go while we have a favorable blocking pattern to our northeast!

[loafnut]

Cooler than normal when your base period is the warmest three decades on record. Would be interesting to see a 1900-1979 base period.

The year to date global temp anomaly map shows that the CONUS has been the warmest area relative to normal. Plenty of cool regions globally.

[Isotherm]

My post was not talking globally....just CONUS...especially the east. It has been warm relative the the 1981-2010 normals which are 2-3 degrees F warmer

than the normals compared to 1961-1990 in the winter. Globally temperatures are about the same as they have been since 1998 as per AMSU and RSS data. This is a short term climate variability that sucks for us in the east especially. In no way did I mention that it is related to AGW...i am glad that it is

VERY cold in other parts of the world relative to normal. But when will it be OUR turn!!! Reverse PNA and persistent southeast ridge has got to go while we have a favorable blocking pattern to our northeast!

Yeah but your post in reponse to that other dude was in agreement w/ the comment, "warmth is the new norm." I posted the global map because it's obvious there are plenty of regions experiencing colder than normal temps, and thus it's just a matter of time before the cards reshuffle in favor of a colder than normal CONUS pattern. We're not just going to stay warm eternally here in the East.

[Isotherm]

I hate to break it to you, but those cold anomalies in Russia are on the same latitudes as central and northern Canada. Not quite mid-latitude, and certainly not on the same latitudes as the CONUS.

Point is there were plenty of cool anomalies in the northern hemisphere over the past 4 winters. Most of the warmth has been concentrated within the arctic circle due largely to the extreme blocking of recent winters.

[LakeEffectOH]

The Pacific has been foul, especially over the past couple of winters. Yes, we are in a negative PDO, but the lower N. Pac SSTAs common during a -PDO cycle, have been even lower over the past year and a half. This combined with warm Pac SSTAs southeast of Russia and normal to below normal SSTs in the tropics around the Dateline, you have the recipe for a screaming Pac Jet. That, of course, floods the lower 48 with warm air.

That mild air passes over a large drought stricken area stretching from Texas to the Dakotas eastward thru the Corn belt and warms even more due to the lack of moisture to take energy out via evaporation. This warm air continues eastward and torches the rest of the country resulting in a torch.

Occasionally colder Canadian will bleed down into the CONUS but the cold is in and out. The warmth from the west and southwest returns with more above to much above temps. It looks somewhat better with the really cold air in west & central Canada as opposed to only being over Alaska/Yukon, but we still have the -PNA/+EPO issues to deal with. The AO/NAO situation is better too.

However, the Stratosphere has been, in relative terms, very cold over most of North America and that contributes to a mostly zonal flow.

Mainly, we need for the North Pacific's SSTA profile to change in order to calm that Pac Jet.

[donsutherland1]

Some quick thoughts:

1. The AO is below -3.000 for the 3rd consecutive day.

2. The ensemble guidance past day 10 increasingly favors the kind of pattern change that would be indicated with the slow retrogression of the persistent blocking currently underway, even with a PNA- pattern.

3. The latter frames of the 12/10/2012 12z GFS ensembles show widespread cold anomalies across much of the U.S. and southern Canada. The week 4 anomaly on the 12/8 and 12/9 runs of the CFSv2 are similar to the closing frames of the GFS ensembles.

4. There is still no indication of any outbreaks of severe cold. I suspect such outbreaks are not very likely this month.

5. The ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has dipped to -0.1°C for the week centered around 12/5. However, the dramatic drop in the SOI (-48.84 today) suggests that this region will likely warm in the near-term. Such a development could enhance prospects for a stormy close to December as the subtropical jet becomes more active. This possibility could coincide with a colder pattern, especially if the GFS ensembles are reasonably accurate.

[blizzard1024]

Yeah but your post in reponse to that other dude was in agreement w/ the comment, "warmth is the new norm." I posted the global map because it's obvious there are plenty of regions experiencing colder than normal temps, and thus it's just a matter of time before the cards reshuffle in favor of a colder than normal CONUS pattern. We're not just going to stay warm eternally here in the East.

That is what I thought last year. There was a lot of cold around over Asia, AK and parts of Europe all last winter but it never got here!! What is causing this reverse PNA pattern? I am not up on the PNA pattern variability.

[blizzard1024]

The Pacific has been foul, especially over the past couple of winters. Yes, we are in a negative PDO, but the lower N. Pac SSTAs common during a -PDO cycle, have been even lower over the past year and a half. This combined with warm Pac SSTAs southeast of Russia and normal to below normal SSTs in the tropics around the Dateline, you have the recipe for a screaming Pac Jet. That, of course, floods the lower 48 with warm air.

That mild air passes over a large drought stricken area stretching from Texas to the Dakotas eastward thru the Corn belt and warms even more due to the lack of moisture to take energy out via evaporation. This warm air continues eastward and torches the rest of the country resulting in a torch.

Occasionally colder Canadian will bleed down into the CONUS but the cold is in and out. The warmth from the west and southwest returns with more above to much above temps. It looks somewhat better with the really cold air in west & central Canada as opposed to only being over Alaska/Yukon, but we still have the -PNA/+EPO issues to deal with. The AO/NAO situation is better too.

However, the Stratosphere has been, in relative terms, very cold over most of North America and that contributes to a mostly zonal flow.

Mainly, we need for the North Pacific's SSTA profile to change in order to calm that Pac Jet.

Thanks. Nice description. The Pacific jet killed us last year and looks like it is cranking up again. SSTs change very slowly and we know we are in a negative PDO....could be a long winter for us. Let's hope not.

[Isotherm]

The last -PDO period comprised the time frame of the late 1940s --> late 1970s, in which we saw some our coldest months/seasons/years on record. So one can't just use the explanation -PDO --> Strong Pacific Jet --> CONUS torch. There's more to it than that. Problem last year was near record positive AO with the raging stratospheric vortex/+QBO that essentially locked all the cold in the Arctic regions. After the SSW occured mid Jan 2012, the AO went negative but the effects weren't felt in the CONUS because the NAO never followed suit, and we had zero blocking around Greenland.

Many of our cold winters/years in the 1950s/60s/70 featured a -PDO with a -NAO/AO combo. But the north pacific is important, especially the EPO signal -- heights in the AK region.

[tacoman25]

Cooler than normal when your base period is the warmest three decades on record. Would be interesting to see a 1900-1979 base period.

His point was that the U.S. has been easily the warmest place in the mid-latitudes this year. Most places have been much cooler, no matter what base period you use.

[tacoman25]

The last -PDO period comprised the time frame of the late 1940s --> late 1970s, in which we saw some our coldest months/seasons/years on record. So one can't just use the explanation -PDO --> Strong Pacific Jet --> CONUS torch. There's more to it than that. Problem last year was near record positive AO with the raging stratospheric vortex/+QBO that essentially locked all the cold in the Arctic regions. After the SSW occured mid Jan 2012, the AO went negative but the effects weren't felt in the CONUS because the NAO never followed suit, and we had zero blocking around Greenland.

Many of our cold winters/years in the 1950s/60s/70 featured a -PDO with a -NAO/AO combo. But the north pacific is important, especially the EPO signal -- heights in the AK region.

Bingo. As long as you have major +EPO, it is nearly impossible to get meaningful cold into the CONUS, regardless of -AO/-NAO. It is very possible to have -PDO/-EPO/-NAO, and as you pointed out, that was a big part of why the 1960s had such cold winters across most of the CONUS.

[Isotherm]

Bingo. As long as you have major +EPO, it is nearly impossible to get meaningful cold into the CONUS, regardless of -AO/-NAO. It is very possible to have -PDO/-EPO/-NAO, and as you pointed out, that was a big part of why the 1960s had such cold winters across most of the CONUS.

Agreed, and as we see with this upcoming pattern, it may be difficult getting severe cold southeast of the northern Plains given the very low heights over AK/NW Canada region. Some data is trying to build heights in that region by late December possibly due to the recent -SOI burst/MJO pulse. If that change does in fact occur, my confidence would increase for potentially major cold entering the picture for January across the US.

[Wow]

Agreed, and as we see with this upcoming pattern, it may be difficult getting severe cold southeast of the northern Plains given the very low heights over AK/NW Canada region. Some data is trying to build heights in that region by late December possibly due to the recent -SOI burst/MJO pulse. If that change does in fact occur, my confidence would increase for potentially major cold entering the picture for January across the US.

Agree as well. The impressive SOI burst to -48 today might be the kick to change out the +EPO regime. Should at least get a good burst of MJO activity and give a shot in the arm to the STJ. We need rain!

[skierinvermont]

His point was that the U.S. has been easily the warmest place in the mid-latitudes this year. Most places have been much cooler, no matter what base period you use.

Really? Last 12 months on a 1951-1980 base. Almost no areas of earth are below normal, and none substantially so. This year will rank as one of the warmest on record on all temperature sources (UAH, RSS, GISS, Had4, NCDC, BEST). This is despite the majority of the year being under the influence of a La Nina (remember 3 month lag from ONI->Temps for surface temps, 5 months for satellite temps).

[Isotherm]

Where'd you pull that map from, national doomsday database (NDD)? Www.endofworldbyfire.com? Hansen's closet?

[Isotherm]

Back to the MJO discussion, the ECMWF takes it into phase 1 shortly (as does the GFS). Remains to be seen whether it can propagate through phase 2/3 or head back into the COD. However, my confidence is fairly high we'll at least get into phase 1 w/ the pulse, which should have some impact on the NPAC pattern as we've discussed.

[nzucker]

Really? Last 12 months on a 1951-1980 base. Almost no areas of earth are below normal, and none substantially so. This year will rank as one of the warmest on record on all temperature sources (UAH, RSS, GISS, Had4, NCDC, BEST). This is despite the majority of the year being under the influence of a La Nina (remember 3 month lag from ONI->Temps for surface temps, 5 months for satellite temps).

Pretty similar to previous years....2011 was .51C (.44C with the 250km smoothing). It definitely won't beat 2005 on GISS which came in at 0.56C.

SSTs are dropping rapidly now so I expect global temperatures to respond in the next 3-5 months.

[blizzard1024]

Really? Last 12 months on a 1951-1980 base. Almost no areas of earth are below normal, and none substantially so. This year will rank as one of the warmest on record on all temperature sources (UAH, RSS, GISS, Had4, NCDC, BEST). This is despite the majority of the year being under the influence of a La Nina (remember 3 month lag from ONI->Temps for surface temps, 5 months for satellite temps).

This is the difference between using the 1951-80 normal period that GISS uses and the much warmer 1981-2010 base period seen in the above map. Most of us remember the colder period of the 1951-80 base period. That is "normal" to me...so when it is warm relative to the 1981-2010 base period it is REALLY warm. So you are right...it is "colder than normal" is many areas using the base period of 1981-2010 but closer to normal in many of these cold areas based on the 1951-1980. It all depends on the base period. But the climate overall is running warm relative to mid 20th century especially in the NH. This is making it hard to get really frigid air masses down here even with decent patterns.