andyhb Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 yeah a few quick ones. but it was generally lesser than many (not necessarily here) thought it would be. there are plenty of other ways to come to those conclusions without that graphic imo. Yeah really got a "most significant tornado outbreak in the past few years over the Central US" with that one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 It wasn't useless before they lowered the CAPE and raised the LCL thresholds. Now, sadly, it seems to be nearly useless. If it still required 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, I bet we'd be seeing 10% at best. I'm really surprised by the amount of chatter in the chase community about tomorrow. Usually I'm one of the last to completely write something off, since I'm satisfied with decent structure even when tornado potential is nil. I will admit I have kind of a rigid mental threshold of 60 F for dew points when dealing with anything east of the High Plains. Only on a very few occasions have I seen exceptions (8 Mar 2010 in W OK being the only one coming to mind at the moment). What really bothers me is the combination of low buoyancy and a narrow instability axis with extreme deep-layer shear. Estimated storm motion on most forecast soundings tomorrow is in the ballpark of 55 kt. That gives you under two hours before an incipient updraft near the dryline/front begins leaving what little instability we'll have. Also, it sometimes seems to take supercells longer to mature when facing an environment characterized by a 100+ kt jet streak in the vicinity. All that said, this is probably the best-looking LLJ we've seen on the Plains since April 14, being out of the south at 45-55 kt. NAM soundings for areas like PTT-RSL at 00z look almost doable, if not for the cap at the bottom of the EML. I'd be rather shocked to see any red dots on the reports map tomorrow night, but there will probably be quite a few green ones on SN, and I just might be one. I guess tomorrow is a good way to gauge how much the Kansas State Police still dislike chasers after all these months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 It wasn't useless before they lowered the CAPE and raised the LCL thresholds. Now, sadly, it seems to be nearly useless. If it still required 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, I bet we'd be seeing 10% at best. I'm really surprised by the amount of chatter in the chase community about tomorrow. Usually I'm one of the last to completely write something off, since I'm satisfied with decent structure even when tornado potential is nil. I will admit I have kind of a rigid mental threshold of 60 F for dew points when dealing with anything east of the High Plains. Only on a very few occasions have I seen exceptions (8 Mar 2010 in W OK being the only one coming to mind at the moment). What really bothers me is the combination of low buoyancy and a narrow instability axis with extreme deep-layer shear. Estimated storm motion on most forecast soundings tomorrow is in the ballpark of 55 kt. That gives you under two hours before an incipient updraft near the dryline/front begins leaving what little instability we'll have. Also, it sometimes seems to take supercells longer to mature when facing an environment characterized by a 100+ kt jet streak in the vicinity. All that said, this is probably the best-looking LLJ we've seen on the Plains since April 14, being out of the south at 45-55 kt. NAM soundings for areas like PTT-RSL at 00z look almost doable, if not for the cap at the bottom of the EML. I'd be rather shocked to see any red dots on the reports map tomorrow night, but there will probably be quite a few green ones on SN, and I just might be one. I agree it used to be a good tool. It may still be but it clearly doesn't work the same as it used to. Not trying to say don't look at it but I see people like Timmer talking up strong tornadoes across the region when sharing it. Obviously he's doing the usual thing so I shouldn't use him as a gauge. I agree otherwise, as usual. excuse bad grammar: had a drink too many this eve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I agree it used to be a good tool. It may still be but it clearly doesn't work the same as it used to. Not trying to say don't look at it but I see people like Timmer talking up strong tornadoes across the region when sharing it. Obviously he's doing the usual thing so I shouldn't use him as a gauge. I agree otherwise, as usual. I bet he doesn't realize the ingredients have changed, and the same can be said for the majority of its users. Not that it would stop him if he did know , but for such a major alteration to the formula, it's almost impossible to spot unless you see the talk about it here, on FB, etc. I do think that in the past, a 50% bullseye on that chart usually meant business. So cruel to chasers... it's the equivalent of quietly multiplying NAM/GFS snow output by a factor of 4 for the weenies in your hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 FWIW, the 4 km WRF-NMM has a couple supercells with high updraft helicity just after dark (one in NW OK, another in N KS): http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 You chasing tomorrow Brett or decision still to come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 You chasing tomorrow Brett or decision still to come? 50/50. I would say the HRRR will decide for me, but after all this time, it finally failed me on the question of initiation 10/12. So I guess I'll probably have to go even when it shows nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 NSSL WRF also has some helicity signatures from what I could tell. The 4 km NAM breaks out several discrete cells around 21z and tracks them across central KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 D1: DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1159 PM CST FRI NOV 09 2012 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES/CENTRAL U.S.... ..SYNOPSIS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD THIS PERIOD...INCREASINGLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CONUS. AS THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EWD...A SURFACE LOW INITIALLY INVOF CO SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER INVOF NRN MN LATE. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT DRIVES EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- AND SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL -- DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ..UPPER MS/MID MO VALLEYS SSWWD INTO NWRN TX RATHER COMPLICATED SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AHEAD OF THE LARGE/ADVANCING WRN TROUGH...AS VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS SEVERE POTENTIAL...WHILE AN ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE/LIKELY-TO-BE-CAPPED WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY TEND TO HINDER OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME INVOF WRN KS AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE TX/OK PANHANDLES...AS AFTERNOON HEATING PERMITS DEVELOPMENT OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. GIVEN CAPPING LIKELY TO BE PRESENT...INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE ISOLATED...AND THUS -- GIVEN BACKGROUND FLOW FIELD -- LIKELY SUPERCELLULAR. ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND NNEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT ADVANCES ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY REGION -- AND PERHAPS NWD INTO MN THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH WITH NWD EXTENT. WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE TOWARD A FORCED LINEAR MODE INVOF THE FRONT -- PARTICULARLY FROM NRN KS NWD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINAL HAIL EXPECTED. FARTHER S INTO KS/OK...STORMS MAY REMAIN MIXED IN MODE -- WITH SOME CELLULAR CONVECTION POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE EVOLVES LATE AS THE COLD FRONT DRIVES ACROSS THIS REGION. GENERALLY...EXPECT STORM INTENSITY -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL -- TO DIMINISH SLOWLY FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD. ..GOSS/GARNER.. 11/10/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Ugh, I would have a Dynamics exam that I desperately need to study for coming up this week. Temptations, temptations.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Ugh, I would have a Dynamics exam that I desperately need to study for coming up this week. Temptations, temptations.... See you out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I'm a little more optimistic about south/southeastern NE for severe potential (versus areas further south)... colder mid-level temps, wider instability axis, closer to surface low/more low-level backing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I'm a little more optimistic about south/southeastern NE for severe potential (versus areas further south)... colder mid-level temps, wider instability axis. Yeah, the NAM has been consistently increasing the breadth of the instability axis up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 My hunch is tomorrow will be the better day for any severe potential from the Piney Woods of E Texas on NE in Arkansas. That said it appears that capping will remain strong further S and any discrete activity will be limited. This appears to be a linear threat more than anything, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I'm a little more optimistic about south/southeastern NE for severe potential (versus areas further south)... colder mid-level temps, wider instability axis, closer to surface low/more low-level backing. I whole-heartedly agree with this. Taking a closer look (finally) at the setup, I don't really see much tornado potential south of maybe Salina. I just don't think the moisture return will allow it. Supercells? Maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 New outlook expanded the 5% tornado quite a bit and increased hail to 30%. Wording is a bit stronger too. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN THE CAP WITH DISCRETE STORMS DEVELOPING FROM EXTREME WRN OK ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SERN NEB. STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF INITIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL...WITH SOME CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATING SUPERCELL AND BOW ECHO STORM ACTIVITY. WITH TIME...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO LINEAR SEGMENTS WITH SEVERE WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY THREAT DURING THE NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The more I look at it, the less impressed I am with any tornado threat today. To the south, LCL heights will be a problem, while to the north, veer-back-veer wind profiles will make storm mode messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 MD out for C KS north through C-SE NE mentioning discrete thunderstorms and supercells possibly by 21-23z with the main threat being hail and wind with a possibility of isolated tornadoes. Looks to be discrete mode initially and then more of a messy mode. I guess I'll dust off Analyst and keep an eye on it this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Some broad rotation with the storm NW of Hoisington. Edit: well there was... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 NWS says ping pong size hail possible west of Salina KS, from the latest severe weather statement. 65-70 dbz returns showing up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 -1 for sig tor ingredients map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Wouldn't be shocked to get a spinup with that segment of the line that'll go through Salina and McPherson. Nasty looking S-shaped band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Snoozefest. Tomorrow really doesn't really look that interesting anymore either. EHI and CAPE are even less than they were yesterday for Arklatex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 -1 for sig tor ingredients map It's completely useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Snoozefest. Tomorrow really doesn't really look that interesting anymore either. I wouldn't call it a snoozefest. That's a heck of a QLCS in central KS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 I wouldn't call it a snoozefest. That's a heck of a QLCS in central KS right now. True from a wind standpoint, got some pretty intense bow echo signatures popping up. I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few blue dots from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 -1 for sig tor ingredients map Why did they try to "fix" something that wasn't broken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Glad I opted for studying today. Could see lightning from the storms in SW KS all the way from the Observation Deck here in Norman... pretty remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Hmm. Can't say I was expecting this. TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 676 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1255 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012 TORNADO WATCH 676 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS TXC001-037-063-067-073-159-161-183-203-213-223-289-315-343-347- 365-379-387-401-419-423-449-459-467-499-120100- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0676.121111T1855Z-121112T0100Z/ TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BOWIE CAMP CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN FREESTONE GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON HOPKINS LEON MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RAINS RED RIVER RUSK SHELBY SMITH TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD $$ ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 today looks marginally better than yesterday.. plus it's a climo favored area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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