moving forward after Sandy

[Pellice]

"As long as houses can be built on those islands they will be built." Yes, but ... what is meant by "can be built"? If no insurance is available, no beach is replenished, no utilities are offered, and substantial damage is incurred every five years or so they WON'T be rebuilt, or rather they will, but as fishing shacks. It's clear that the state intends for every town to rebuild just as before, but will that happen in every single locality? The Delaware bayshore is littered with towns that were NOT rebuilt, and its changeable acres of grass and reeds now absorb the bay's fury with modest taxpayer costs.

[famartin]

I will be curious to see how Island Beach State Park - I mean the natural features - fared in the storm. Island Beach is the "natural" Jersey barrier island, and is constantly shifting and changing.

Based on the overflight imagery, it looked like it faired fairly well. Overwash mainly occurred where dunes had been breached for beach access. Otherwise, they appeared to hold (though they certainly took quite a beating).

Comparing the before and after imagery, it was obvious that the worst damage was mainly in places where dunes were non-existent before the storm. The town of Matoloking was one of those places. Now its the Inlet of Mantoloking.

http://storms.ngs.noaa.gov/storms/sandy/

[famartin]

"As long as houses can be built on those islands they will be built." Yes, but ... what is meant by "can be built"? If no insurance is available, no beach is replenished, no utilities are offered, and substantial damage is incurred every five years or so they WON'T be rebuilt, or rather they will, but as fishing shacks. It's clear that the state intends for every town to rebuild just as before, but will that happen in every single locality? The Delaware bayshore is littered with towns that were NOT rebuilt, and its changeable acres of grass and reeds now absorb the bay's fury with modest taxpayer costs.

Well, that's the difference between the bay shore and the oceanfront. One is much more pleasant (in the eyes of the public) than the other. One day, long in the future, when public perception of what "pleasant" is changes, maybe the shore will be abandoned as you describe. However, that day is far in the future, if it ever arrives at all. People like the ocean.

[Boch23]

"As long as houses can be built on those islands they will be built." Yes, but ... what is meant by "can be built"? If no insurance is available, no beach is replenished, no utilities are offered, and substantial damage is incurred every five years or so they WON'T be rebuilt, or rather they will, but as fishing shacks. It's clear that the state intends for every town to rebuild just as before, but will that happen in every single locality? The Delaware bayshore is littered with towns that were NOT rebuilt, and its changeable acres of grass and reeds now absorb the bay's fury with modest taxpayer costs.

I mean as long as the Island can have houses built on it they will be built, because its what people want....as long as they can be built the beach will be replenished like it is every year at different shore points, utilities will be maintained, and there are plenty of places that are hit far more frequently that still have insurance coverage. While a storm like this could easily happen next year, 2 years from now, 3 years from now, you could just as easily have another 40+ years before a storm like this occurs. I hope that 40+ years is the case.

Not to mention if everywhere has a large dune system this conversation for NJ isn't happening. As Glen pointed it out in his post storm blog there are some places that refused large dunes recently that had substantial damage to the shore point. The places that got the new dunes had far fewer impacts. Still flooding but not nearly the devastation.

[Rainshadow]

I mean as long as the Island can have houses built on it they will be built, because its what people want....as long as they can be built the beach will be replenished like it is every year at different shore points, utilities will be maintained, and there are plenty of places that are hit far more frequently that still have insurance coverage. While a storm like this could easily happen next year, 2 years from now, 3 years from now, you could just as easily have another 40+ years before a storm like this occurs. I hope that 40+ years is the case.

Not to mention if everywhere has a large dune system this conversation for NJ isn't happening. As Glen pointed it out in his post storm blog there are some places that refused large dunes recently that had substantial damage to the shore point. The places that got the new dunes had far fewer impacts. Still flooding but not nearly the devastation.

Seriously there was an individual who sued Ocean City, NJ because the dunes blocked the view of the ocean from his home.

[NorthNJwx]

A little off topic for this thread, but your comment here got me to thinking about conversion factors for sustained winds versus gusts and I ran into this chart:

http://www.wmo.int/p...Doc.3.part2.pdf

(page 12)

Based on that table, it would seem likely that you would need to find a place which gusted to ~96 mph before you had a good chance of finding sustained hurricane force winds. I don't recall any reports of gusts that high.

Wow - that's an excellent chart/paper. Thanks for posting it! My gust factors at the LBI station for offshore winds during extratropical storms and thunderstorms tend to be even smaller (2-min sustained wind closer to 3-sec gust), and it is noted in the paper that tropical systems typically have higher gust factors. I won't know the full extent of my Sandy data until I get down to LBI to retrieve it all, but, being on the bay, my exposure to onshore winds isn't as good as my offshore wind exposure. I'm guessing low-end gale sustained (probably 39-43) max at my station, based on the peak gust uploaded to my Wunderground page of 64 (probably will find it was actually 65 or 66 on my station, since the software that reports to WU doesn't usually catch the max). If I sustained in the low 40s, say, the beachfront could've sustained in the low-to-mid 50s, maybe even a bit higher - but definitely not to hurricane force. The sustained wind max was almost certainly north of my station, but I don't think any spot on the coast saw hurricane force sustained from the data I've seen.

But back to the main discussion. I think a lot of people are hitting one of the main themes here: dunes. The places with substantial dunes mainly just received bay flooding; which is certainly no picnic, but buildings on pilings high enough can and do escape it entirely unscathed. As I've mentioned, my spot is Holgate, on the south end of LBI. The dunes in Holgate were pretty pathetic, especially towards the end of the island, and in a couple of spots they were threatened during the succession of nor'easters during the winter of 09-10. There's been some controversy there about beach replenishment. I'm pretty sure it won't be a controversy going forward after seeing the success of beach replenishment projects in places like Ship Bottom, Surf City, and Harvey Cedars on the island with this storm - ocean encroachment in those areas wasn't a major issue the way it was in Holgate. The oceanfront houses in Holgate with their pilings exposed were literally built on the backside of the dunes, but in the beach replenishment areas, the houses are fully behind multiple layers of dunes.

[mike2010]

Not trying to get in a global warming debacle, but continued evidence of sea levels rising can't be ignored.

I couldn't find it on youtube, but about 2:30 into this clip...

http://rockcenter.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/01/14862174-hurricane-sandy-provides-wake-up-call-for-cities-at-risk-of-flooding?lite

they show a cool demo of building a storm surge barrier....only problem is the mega-cost.

[rickrd]

Just getting back from the shore (Point Pleasant Beach, NJ). Finished emptying the house which is a block away from the beach. Emptied entire contents of 1st floor onto the curb. Ripped open every wall to dry out. 3 feet of water through the house.... and I was one of the lucky ones. Words cant describe the devastation towards the beach, but we all have seen pictures to know.

I pray this next storm goes away. It would wreck havoc on the Jersey coast if it hits. There is no protection at this time with Dunes and sand barriers. Workers are working around the clock trying to re-build the dunes. I pray they succeed.

[Parsley]

Just getting back from the shore (Point Pleasant Beach, NJ). Finished emptying the house which is a block away from the beach. Emptied entire contents of 1st floor onto the curb. Ripped open every wall to dry out. 3 feet of water through the house.... and I was one of the lucky ones. Words cant describe the devastation towards the beach, but we all have seen pictures to know.

I pray this next storm goes away. It would wreck havoc on the Jersey coast if it hits. There is no protection at this time with Dunes and sand barriers. Workers are working around the clock trying to re-build the dunes. I pray they succeed.

Sorry to hear about your place

[Pellice]

I'm sorry to hear about your house too. I wouldn't consider Pt. Pleasant one of the more vulnerable areas. The storm was so big! I hope this next one will have little impact.

When you all above refer to "dunes" are you referring to simple heaps of sand piled up by a front-loader, or are these real dunes with sea oats and salt grasses? The dunes at Island Beach get replenished naturally, if they are not walked on.

As I said, it is clear the will and the dollars exist to rebuild the Jersey Shore again this time, but what I am wondering is whether it is even possible to begin a managed retreat from 2 or 3 places that are truly hopeless. I can imagine the firestorm of political criticism if such places were singled out. In fact, the criticism would be such that I guess I don't think such a managed retreat could happen.

Is that saying that the Jersey Shore stays up or goes down as a whole? Which would mean that such an effect would result from a federal decision - that someone or some group in Washington who are adamantly against the federal government's having a role in providing services to people would stop funding the government flood insurance program and stop reimbursing states for disaster expenses. Romney has hinted at this, though I don't think he would do it. But such a decision would more or less affect the Shore as a whole.

I think a gradual retreat will begin, but not with any spoken decision. Some places will be replenished more quickly than others; some places will be required to pay more money locally than is realistic for inhabitants. Some places may be offered attractive buyouts. I wonder if there is a way to keep informed about what will happen.

Or w

[Boch23]

I'm sorry to hear about your house too. I wouldn't consider Pt. Pleasant one of the more vulnerable areas. The storm was so big! I hope this next one will have little impact.

When you all above refer to "dunes" are you referring to simple heaps of sand piled up by a front-loader, or are these real dunes with sea oats and salt grasses? The dunes at Island Beach get replenished naturally, if they are not walked on.

As I said, it is clear the will and the dollars exist to rebuild the Jersey Shore again this time, but what I am wondering is whether it is even possible to begin a managed retreat from 2 or 3 places that are truly hopeless. I can imagine the firestorm of political criticism if such places were singled out. In fact, the criticism would be such that I guess I don't think such a managed retreat could happen.

Is that saying that the Jersey Shore stays up or goes down as a whole? Which would mean that such an effect would result from a federal decision - that someone or some group in Washington who are adamantly against the federal government's having a role in providing services to people would stop funding the government flood insurance program and stop reimbursing states for disaster expenses. Romney has hinted at this, though I don't think he would do it. But such a decision would more or less affect the Shore as a whole.

I think a gradual retreat will begin, but not with any spoken decision. Some places will be replenished more quickly than others; some places will be required to pay more money locally than is realistic for inhabitants. Some places may be offered attractive buyouts. I wonder if there is a way to keep informed about what will happen.

Or w

Yes I mean actual dunes. Have you ever been to strathmere? In some spots its literally the beach, a street, a row of houses then the marshes and bay. I mean I don't know how many ways I can say this. As long as the island can be built on it will be. There are a lot of rich people that need their ocean front property that will pay high dollar to have it. Its like what was stated earlier in the thread, and it can't be said any better than this:

Well, that's the difference between the bay shore and the oceanfront. One is much more pleasant (in the eyes of the public) than the other. One day, long in the future, when public perception of what "pleasant" is changes, maybe the shore will be abandoned as you describe. However, that day is far in the future, if it ever arrives at all. People like the ocean.

I mean seriously did they abandon New Orleans after Katrina knowing full well the city could be under 15-20+ feet of water again? No, the discussion hasn't even been brought up.

[Pellice]

I agree with you that it will be mostly rebuilt.

"I mean seriously did they abandon New Orleans after Katrina knowing full well the city could be under 15-20+ feet of water again? No, the discussion hasn't even been brought up."

- actually, I read somewhere today in the Star-Ledger or online, can't find it now, that the 9th Parish, the poorer area, was in fact NOT rebuilt, and I have read elsewhere that New Orleans is 1/3 smaller than it was.

[famartin]

- actually, I read somewhere today in the Star-Ledger or online, can't find it now, that the 9th Parish, the poorer area, was in fact NOT rebuilt, and I have read elsewhere that New Orleans is 1/3 smaller than it was.

Per Wikipedia, the population in 2011 was about 25% smaller than in 2000. In fairness, the city proper's population has been on the decline since 1960, though the biggest hit was Katrina.

[phlwx]

I know I am in the minority in online weather world, but I honestly have no idea what hurricane warnings would have done that NHC/NWS/NOAA/media didn't do. Would people really have been more aware under a hurricane warning? I highly doubt it. Frankenstorm talk started last Thursday.

It speaks to three points:

1) People gotta stop worrying about the label in FRONT of the storm's name. Tropical storm, hurricane, post-trop doesn't really matter in classification. Personally I hate the division of names between hurricanes and TS...a 75 mph hurricane is not significantly "worse" than a 70 mph tropical storm. Call em all "tropical cyclones" or "tropical storms" and call it a day.

2) I generally agree with you about the warning stuff but there should be flexibility in product to use something "greater" than high wind warning...hurricane force winds, inland "storm" warnings...something should be developed or a tropical product can be used and maintained even after transition if the wind will verify.

3) Can Saffir be completely and utterly demolished as a ranking system?

[hurricaneschwartz]

Sorry for the delay in comments, but family emergency issues have complicated things.

1. The NWS Mt. Holly did an INCREDIBLE job on the storm. Let me add to the praise of the daily briefings. I showed them to the other mets at the station not as experienced with historic storms, AND management to let them know I wasn't the only one predicting a major disaster. It really helped-more than you can ever know.

2. NHC: As usual, I continue to argue that better communication of danger is more important than the strict science. Re-label it in retrospect, after the studies. But I can tell you that there was a lot of confusion about whether Sandy was going to be a hurricane or a Nor'easter, or a Sub-tropical, or a Hybrid storm. Those last 2 terms mean NOTHING to most people, no matter how many times I try to explain it. That is valuable time NOT talking about the threats.

3. Irene and the over-forecasting of it led to a lot of the poor reaction to the warnings this time. You may recall our discussions after Irene when I criticized the mandatory evacuation order for the entire Cape May county for a weakening storm tracking parallel to the coast. Gov. Christie lost some credibility with that order, so his terrific reactions this time were less effective.

4. Maybe this will finally stop the objections to beach replenishment and the dunes that come with it. It was sick to see those areas that turned down the GIFT of dunes from the government get smashed by the surge. Those dunes saved SO many areas.

5. The EURO is KING. Don't try to defend the GFS by touting its victory in a weak storm in a weak flow pattern. This was an unprecidented track with complex interaction of a hurricane, an upper low and a blocking pattern and the EURO nailed it run after run (as did their ensembles). Those who bought the GFS track out to sea didn't look too good.

6. We will rebuild the Jersey Shore and make it even better than before. There will be new homes built higher, dunes everywhere, and a massive barrier project around NYC. Politicians won't dare block these costly programs once they see the final cost of not doing these things ($50 billion or so).

7. The next hurricane threat or major Nor'easter will be over-predicted and over-reacted to, leading to the return of complaints about "crying wolf" and "media hype".

8. I have a series of blogs on our website, nbc10.com and search "Sandy blog". The last 2 were lessons learned.

Glenn

[NorthNJwx]

I'm sorry to hear about your house too. I wouldn't consider Pt. Pleasant one of the more vulnerable areas. The storm was so big! I hope this next one will have little impact.

When you all above refer to "dunes" are you referring to simple heaps of sand piled up by a front-loader, or are these real dunes with sea oats and salt grasses? The dunes at Island Beach get replenished naturally, if they are not walked on.

As I said, it is clear the will and the dollars exist to rebuild the Jersey Shore again this time, but what I am wondering is whether it is even possible to begin a managed retreat from 2 or 3 places that are truly hopeless. I can imagine the firestorm of political criticism if such places were singled out. In fact, the criticism would be such that I guess I don't think such a managed retreat could happen.

Is that saying that the Jersey Shore stays up or goes down as a whole? Which would mean that such an effect would result from a federal decision - that someone or some group in Washington who are adamantly against the federal government's having a role in providing services to people would stop funding the government flood insurance program and stop reimbursing states for disaster expenses. Romney has hinted at this, though I don't think he would do it. But such a decision would more or less affect the Shore as a whole.

I think a gradual retreat will begin, but not with any spoken decision. Some places will be replenished more quickly than others; some places will be required to pay more money locally than is realistic for inhabitants. Some places may be offered attractive buyouts. I wonder if there is a way to keep informed about what will happen.

Or w

I think we all mean "dunes" as the natural variety. Right now, of course, crews are working to pile heaps of sand there as temporary measures of protection and to make a place for sand to collect, so that a natural dune can form atop the sand heaps. I think some post-'62 storm measures actually included putting abandoned cars on the bottom of dunes being constructed in an attempt to stabilize them.

I actually think the barrier islands largely held up remarkably well, considering the onslaught they endured. The inlet through Mantoloking is an exception, of course. But anyone with a knowledge of NJ's storm history would expect most boardwalks to be wiped out, many dunes to be breached, and bay flooding to cover every square inch of every barrier island during times of high tide from a storm of this magnitude. What's great is that the vast majority of the buildings on the barrier islands are not only still standing, but also structurally sound. The buildings on ground level, unfortunately, all took on water to varying degrees, but the buildings elevated high enough on pilings likely took on no water at all. Even in those vulnerable areas you mention, houses more than a few hundred feet from the beach and raised on pilings are likely to be in quite fine shape. The beachfront houses are damaged, but the impression I get is that most owners are ready to repair. I get (but absolutely can't stand) the media's tendency to want to call everything "destroyed," but the truth, thankfully, is that those areas - places like Seaside, LBI, Bay Head, and even Mantoloking - are far from it. Heavily damaged? Of course. Totally destroyed? Far, far from it. It's all about smart building (pilings to get buildings 5, 6, 7+ feet AGL, and not building ON the beach) and nurturing of dunes (building of dunes where they've been leveled, less severe beach access cuts that can allow easier breaches, planting of native dune grasses, etc.).

[famartin]

I actually think the barrier islands largely held up remarkably well, considering the onslaught they endured. The inlet through Mantoloking is an exception, of course.

That's the difference between dunes and no dunes. Mantoloking had virtually none. I guess the wealthy folk wanted their beach view unimpeded by them. (Mantoloking has the highest average per capita income in the whole state).

[tombo82685]

Sorry for the delay in comments, but family emergency issues have complicated things.

1. The NWS Mt. Holly did an INCREDIBLE job on the storm. Let me add to the praise of the daily briefings. I showed them to the other mets at the station not as experienced with historic storms, AND management to let them know I wasn't the only one predicting a major disaster. It really helped-more than you can ever know.

2. NHC: As usual, I continue to argue that better communication of danger is more important than the strict science. Re-label it in retrospect, after the studies. But I can tell you that there was a lot of confusion about whether Sandy was going to be a hurricane or a Nor'easter, or a Sub-tropical, or a Hybrid storm. Those last 2 terms mean NOTHING to most people, no matter how many times I try to explain it. That is valuable time NOT talking about the threats.

3. Irene and the over-forecasting of it led to a lot of the poor reaction to the warnings this time. You may recall our discussions after Irene when I criticized the mandatory evacuation order for the entire Cape May county for a weakening storm tracking parallel to the coast. Gov. Christie lost some credibility with that order, so his terrific reactions this time were less effective.

4. Maybe this will finally stop the objections to beach replenishment and the dunes that come with it. It was sick to see those areas that turned down the GIFT of dunes from the government get smashed by the surge. Those dunes saved SO many areas.

5. The EURO is KING. Don't try to defend the GFS by touting its victory in a weak storm in a weak flow pattern. This was an unprecidented track with complex interaction of a hurricane, an upper low and a blocking pattern and the EURO nailed it run after run (as did their ensembles). Those who bought the GFS track out to sea didn't look too good.

6. We will rebuild the Jersey Shore and make it even better than before. There will be new homes built higher, dunes everywhere, and a massive barrier project around NYC. Politicians won't dare block these costly programs once they see the final cost of not doing these things ($50 billion or so).

7. The next hurricane threat or major Nor'easter will be over-predicted and over-reacted to, leading to the return of complaints about "crying wolf" and "media hype".

8. I have a series of blogs on our website, nbc10.com and search "Sandy blog". The last 2 were lessons learned.

Glenn

I follow a 6abc met on facebook and they were out to sea with sandy till 2-3 days before it occured. They were bashing other stations that were hyping it up. The person was saying "no hype, just right" I responded to the post by saying to defend those other stations, the most accurate computer model in the world has continuously showed hit after hit.

Hope all is well with your family Glenn.

[Sunny and Warm]

Sorry for the delay in comments, but family emergency issues have complicated things.

1. The NWS Mt. Holly did an INCREDIBLE job on the storm. Let me add to the praise of the daily briefings. I showed them to the other mets at the station not as experienced with historic storms, AND management to let them know I wasn't the only one predicting a major disaster. It really helped-more than you can ever know.

2. NHC: As usual, I continue to argue that better communication of danger is more important than the strict science. Re-label it in retrospect, after the studies. But I can tell you that there was a lot of confusion about whether Sandy was going to be a hurricane or a Nor'easter, or a Sub-tropical, or a Hybrid storm. Those last 2 terms mean NOTHING to most people, no matter how many times I try to explain it. That is valuable time NOT talking about the threats.

3. Irene and the over-forecasting of it led to a lot of the poor reaction to the warnings this time. You may recall our discussions after Irene when I criticized the mandatory evacuation order for the entire Cape May county for a weakening storm tracking parallel to the coast. Gov. Christie lost some credibility with that order, so his terrific reactions this time were less effective.

4. Maybe this will finally stop the objections to beach replenishment and the dunes that come with it. It was sick to see those areas that turned down the GIFT of dunes from the government get smashed by the surge. Those dunes saved SO many areas.

5. The EURO is KING. Don't try to defend the GFS by touting its victory in a weak storm in a weak flow pattern. This was an unprecidented track with complex interaction of a hurricane, an upper low and a blocking pattern and the EURO nailed it run after run (as did their ensembles). Those who bought the GFS track out to sea didn't look too good.

6. We will rebuild the Jersey Shore and make it even better than before. There will be new homes built higher, dunes everywhere, and a massive barrier project around NYC. Politicians won't dare block these costly programs once they see the final cost of not doing these things ($50 billion or so).

7. The next hurricane threat or major Nor'easter will be over-predicted and over-reacted to, leading to the return of complaints about "crying wolf" and "media hype".

8. I have a series of blogs on our website, nbc10.com and search "Sandy blog". The last 2 were lessons learned.

Glenn

Glenn,

Great post. I agree with every point you make. Question about #3. What role has the media played in the "crying wolf" syndrome? I watched Sandy on TWC, and the need for ratings made their coverage over the top at times even for a real emergency. The next time we have a pseudo-Sandy, we'll get the same coverage and the "crying wolf" issues will arise again like they did after Irene. I think this issue is greater than the NWS or local news. It has to do with NBC and TWC needing to generate revenue. I know you are NBC and so maybe can't say much, but I don't think this issue will disappear any time soon.

[NorthNJwx]

That's the difference between dunes and no dunes. Mantoloking had virtually none. I guess the wealthy folk wanted their beach view unimpeded by them. (Mantoloking has the highest average per capita income in the whole state).

LBI had the same problem, and I'm really hoping this will change homeowners' minds there. Some of the boroughs on the island approved dune replenishment and were largely spared breaches; others voted down replenishment, and we've all seen the results. My grandparents' shore house is in Holgate, which I may have mentioned earlier. Their house is on the bay, and looks fine from the aerials I've seen (my weather station was uploading through the storm, too, which was comforting) - but the beach is decimated and probably 100% of the dunes in the Holgate section were breached. A good number of beachfront homeowners in Holgate were opposed to replenishment. While bayfront houses like my grandparents' place probably made out quite well, some houses even several lots back from the oceanfront were severely damaged or destroyed; it's not just the oceanfront that can experience wave action. For their own good, and for the good of the houses just inland from them, I'd really hope the Army Corps replenishment will face zero opposition in Holgate now.

[SmokeEater]

I'm hearing rumors through FD channels that some of the smaller barrier island towns won't be rebuilt, just bulldozed. Mantoloking, Bay Head, Lavallette, etc. and possibly some sections of LBI. I really hope it's not true, but the people I'm hearing it from are very reliable. Hell, it's going to be 8 months before residents can even think about going back to Seaside Heights/Park.

[hurricaneschwartz]

Glenn,

Great post. I agree with every point you make. Question about #3. What role has the media played in the "crying wolf" syndrome? I watched Sandy on TWC, and the need for ratings made their coverage over the top at times even for a real emergency. The next time we have a pseudo-Sandy, we'll get the same coverage and the "crying wolf" issues will arise again like they did after Irene. I think this issue is greater than the NWS or local news. It has to do with NBC and TWC needing to generate revenue. I know you are NBC and so maybe can't say much, but I don't think this issue will disappear any time soon.

I think it's more a case over over-excitement in an atmosphere with dozens of mets talking about nothing else but the storm. They make a fortune these days, so it's no longer a matter of survival to get big ratings.

Glenn

[NJHurricane]

Thanks for taking the time to post Glenn, great points.

As to the NHC/NWS decision about hurricane warnings....setting aside the continued argument on if they were more desirable than the more "conventional" suite of warnings they elected to go with I have to give NWS/NHC high marks for trying to communicate the unique threats of the storm while trying to emphasize that it doesn't matter what you call it when it gets here. I also give high marks for the media for trying to clear up confusion...remarkably, I think more people have an understanding of at least the concepts of a "hybrid" storm and its potential for wide ranging impacts. Not saying a majority of people understand there is a difference, but a lot more than before. Now back to your point...I do think it did cause some initial confusion and hesitation...too early to say how much and to what effect with certainty. I too believe to have erred on the side of the more visible "Hurricane" warning was a better course, but I can say I don't think there was anybody who wasn't aware there was a large and incredibly dangerous storm headed our way based solely on the warning distinction. I hope NHC/NWS revisit the issue when we are a bit removed from the still fresh stress and drama, but nothing can take away from the great job they did forecasting the track and outlining the impacts.

[phlwx]

I follow a 6abc met on facebook and they were out to sea with sandy till 2-3 days before it occured. They were bashing other stations that were hyping it up. The person was saying "no hype, just right" I responded to the post by saying to defend those other stations, the most accurate computer model in the world has continuously showed hit after hit.

One thing to be skeptical of the extreme scenario a week out, it's another to outright dismiss it and say a storm will go out to sea. Extreme scenarios are extreme because they don't often happen...but you do have to show the possibility especially since the model is historically very reliable as one of the projected scenarios. But putting certainties out there five, seven days out (such as "will" and "won't occur) is just setting yourself up to look silly if the outcome is not that.

I've never had much respect for that particular met at Channel 6 (their only degreed met, by the way) because of the back-patting that said met will do about how "they got it right all along", etc. This storm pretty much sealed the deal for me regarding me not having much respect for that individual's ability to forecast.

[hurricaneschwartz]

One thing to be skeptical of the extreme scenario a week out, it's another to outright dismiss it and say a storm will go out to sea. Extreme scenarios are extreme because they don't often happen...but you do have to show the possibility especially since the model is historically very reliable as one of the projected scenarios. But putting certainties out there five, seven days out (such as "will" and "won't occur) is just setting yourself up to look silly if the outcome is not that.

I've never had much respect for that particular met at Channel 6 (their only degreed met, by the way) because of the back-patting that said met will do about how "they got it right all along", etc. This storm pretty much sealed the deal for me regarding me not having much respect for that individual's ability to forecast.

I was SHOCKED when I heard with my own ears the "out to sea" blow-off of the storm, with NO consideration that the best model in the world could possibly be right. That was bad enough. But to bash us on-air and in social media for a perfectly reasonable forecast is even more shocking. More people should know about that.

Glenn

[left_gulley]

Thanks for taking the time to post Glenn, great points.

As to the NHC/NWS decision about hurricane warnings....setting aside the continued argument on if they were more desirable than the more "conventional" suite of warnings they elected to go with I have to give NWS/NHC high marks for trying to communicate the unique threats of the storm while trying to emphasize that it doesn't matter what you call it when it gets here. I also give high marks for the media for trying to clear up confusion...remarkably, I think more people have an understanding of at least the concepts of a "hybrid" storm and its potential for wide ranging impacts. Not saying a majority of people understand there is a difference, but a lot more than before. Now back to your point...I do think it did cause some initial confusion and hesitation...too early to say how much and to what effect with certainty. I too believe to have erred on the side of the more visible "Hurricane" warning was a better course, but I can say I don't think there was anybody who wasn't aware there was a large and incredibly dangerous storm headed our way based solely on the warning distinction. I hope NHC/NWS revisit the issue when we are a bit removed from the still fresh stress and drama, but nothing can take away from the great job they did forecasting the track and outlining the impacts.

I think the NWS, NHC, and the media did a fantastic job with this event overall. Not predicting a "hurricane" seems to have been one factor leading to Bloomberg delaying the evacuation of Zone A until Sunday, though (he also seems to have felt that the storm was headed for DE/MD). I think that he handled the storm and its aftermath terribly, so I'm not trying to justify his decision-making process at all, I'm just saying that at least some of those in charge (and many citizens) may have taken the storm more seriously if it was predicted to be a hurricane, even if this was technically incorrect. A lot of people just can't grasp the nuances of meteorology, so if they hear "no hurricane" they think "no problem," no matter what else is said about the storm (I think Bloomberg, who's brain is thinking about dollar bills 99.9% of the time, fell prey to this until the last minute).

Here is Bloomberg's press conference from Saturday. See 4:32-4:57 where he says that "With this storm we'll likely see a slow pileup of water, rather than a sudden surge, which is what you would expect from a hurricane."

(related article here: http://online.wsj.co...0823954952.html)

[hurricaneschwartz]

One thing to be skeptical of the extreme scenario a week out, it's another to outright dismiss it and say a storm will go out to sea. Extreme scenarios are extreme because they don't often happen...but you do have to show the possibility especially since the model is historically very reliable as one of the projected scenarios. But putting certainties out there five, seven days out (such as "will" and "won't occur) is just setting yourself up to look silly if the outcome is not that.

I've never had much respect for that particular met at Channel 6 (their only degreed met, by the way) because of the back-patting that said met will do about how "they got it right all along", etc. This storm pretty much sealed the deal for me regarding me not having much respect for that individual's ability to forecast.

I was SHOCKED when I heard with my own ears the "out to sea" blow-off of the storm, with NO consideration that the best model in the world could possibly be right. That was bad enough. But to bash us on-air and in social media for a perfectly reasonable forecast is even more shocking. More people should know about that.

Glenn

[Boch23]

I was SHOCKED when I heard with my own ears the "out to sea" blow-off of the storm, with NO consideration that the best model in the world could possibly be right. That was bad enough. But to bash us on-air and in social media for a perfectly reasonable forecast is even more shocking. More people should know about that.

Glenn

I am not a fan of on the air bashing of other mets. In particular ones with a fraction of the experience of who they are bashing. I pretty much turn off and tune out any mets on tv who do that. I think its childish and belongs in a grade school playground.

[MGorse]

2) I generally agree with you about the warning stuff but there should be flexibility in product to use something "greater" than high wind warning...hurricane force winds, inland "storm" warnings...something should be developed or a tropical product can be used and maintained even after transition if the wind will verify.

I am not all that sold on adding another headline product. That could just be confusing. Some do not know what all the watches and warnings we have now mean.

[Sunny and Warm]

I am not all that sold on adding another headline product. That could just be confusing. Some do not know what all the watches and warnings we have now mean.

agreed. Bottom line is that a significant minority of the population will ignore warnings if it is too inconvenient to their daily lives. In these instances and in their accounting, the chance of losing their material possessions is far greater than the chance of losing their lives, so they stay and ride it out. I don't think you'll ever convince those people to leave with any type of warning less than a cat 3.