moving forward after Sandy

[mike2010]

I said it several days beforehand....EAS should of been activated then. When most thought it was all just 'media hype'.

[MGorse]

I said it several days beforehand....EAS should of been activated then. When most thought it was all just 'media hype'.

EAS for what specifically?

[mike2010]

EAS for what?

For a catastrophic storm that's about to make landfall.. Or is that currently not under their guidelines.

EDIT : Just noticed EAS is for 'national' only.. Maybe that needs to be revised then for storms like this.

[MGorse]

For a catastrophic storm that's about to make landfall.. Or is that currently not under their guidelines.

EDIT : Just noticed EAS is for 'national' only..oops. Maybe that needs to be revised then for storms like this.

The NWS does not activate EAS, but can request it. Not really sure EAS would matter anyway, as a wealth of warnings were already issued and many of them were strongly worded.

[mike2010]

The NWS does not activate EAS, but can request it. Not really sure EAS would matter anyway, as a wealth of warnings were already issued and many of them were strongly worded.

You guys did an awesome job overall with the storm. (can't say the same about NHC though) Even that 'severely' worded public statement you guys released a few days beforehand was right on.. It ended up being right, even though some joked over it.

Regardless, I still think this storm warranted EAS whether it could of been activated by you guys or other. Even state officials could of stepped in more.

Still...you guys did everything you could... just wish you were 'allowed' to issue hurricane warnings.

[MGorse]

You guys did an awesome job overall with the storm. (can't say the same about NHC though) Even that 'severely' worded public statement you guys released a few days beforehand was right on.. It ended up being right, even though some joked over it.

Regardless, I still think this storm warranted EAS whether it could of been activated by you guys or other. Even state officials could of stepped in more.

Still...you guys did everything you could... just wish you were 'allowed' to issue hurricane warnings.

There was a lot of internal discussions (some outside of this office but within the NWS) regarding headlines up this far north. It was explained in the public release. The objective was to not have NWS offices switch from tropical to non-tropical headlines as Sandy went post-tropical. This was intended to reduce the confusion (I could only imagine if hurricane warnings were up, then just prior to landfall Sandy went post-tropical and these were dropped and replaced with high wind warnings). The NWS Eastern Region Headquarters collaborated with NHC to establish this so everyone was on the same page. Again, there were tons of behind the scenes collaboration going on that the public did not hear or see.

[am19psu]

People talking about hurricane warnings should have been in place instead of high wind warnings somewhat makes me laugh, mainly because there were preparations and actions already rolling before any watches or warnings were officially issued across the region. There was a reason for what was done, and the explanation of this by the NHC/NWS was distributed but there are some that just did not want to hear it (I wish the bulk of the media would have helped more in explaining this). There was quite a bit of negative comments on this especially via social media, however at that point instead of arguing about it we all should have been hammering home the seriousness of this storm, hurricane warnings or not! The numerous briefing packages issued by my office and even some PNS's that helped to also convey the seriousness of this storm were all available. These were even posted on Facebook and Twitter, and I know these were also passed around from there. We even had a few media interviews from the Midwest that were mainly sparked by the 12th page of the briefing which was of a personal plea. If everyone could only see the behind the scenes here at the NWS offices when an event like this is developing and then happening, most if not all would have a totally different perspective.

It is tragic what happened as a result of Sandy, however the message was clear that his was an extremely dangerous siutation and even could be historic. We now know the outcome, but it saddens me to see the loss of life and those who did not heed the warnings and get out of harms way.

you guys. You did everything you could.

[johnc]

It could've been a lot worse if Bloomberg didn't wisen up at the last minute and decide to take the storm seriously. I'm sure there was some external pressure that brought him around and that deserves some credit.

One thing I've noticed is that there's still a lot of fatalities from trees on homes (same with the derecho event). There's probably an opportunity here for better education about where to ride out storms with high winds. I know during Irene I spent most of the time in the interior part of my home. With this storm I was a lot more relaxed but still tended to avoid the room closest to the treeline here and tried to pay attention to the wind direction.

[NaoPos]

Agreed Adam.

A big thank you to Mt. Holly for a job well done. The briefing packages were very insightful. You made spot on forecasts. Bunch of guys @work were asking what to expect,

I would just link them the latest briefing. Adequate timing to get preparations done.

[Parsley]

A big thank you to Mt. Holly for a job well done. The briefing packages were very insightful. You made spot on forecasts. Bunch of guys @work were asking what to expect,

I would just link them the latest briefing. Adequate timing to get preparations done.

Agree 100%

Honestly had those briefing packages been able to get to each and every person directly (in a fantasy world) in NY/NJ/DE I bet awareness would have been heightened to some degree. With that said, there are those who would have brushed it off and said.."meh.....Sandy will be just like Irene" regardless of being forewarned.

[dryslotted]

Agreed Adam.

A big thank you to Mt. Holly for a job well done. The briefing packages were very insightful. You made spot on forecasts. Bunch of guys @work were asking what to expect,

I would just link them the latest briefing. Adequate timing to get preparations done.

I actually brought the briefings to our Crisis Mgt Team meetings at work starting on Wednesday, and they got great feedback. I'm not sure what the current model or audience is around the conference calls associated with the briefings (can someone clarify?), but it would be great to see that expanded going forward. I think there's value there in that it could help companies make better operational and employee safety decisions...

[NJHurricane]

There was a lot of internal discussions (some outside of this office but within the NWS) regarding headlines up this far north. It was explained in the public release. The objective was to not have NWS offices switch from tropical to non-tropical headlines as Sandy went post-tropical. This was intended to reduce the confusion (I could only imagine if hurricane warnings were up, then just prior to landfall Sandy went post-tropical and these were dropped and replaced with high wind warnings). The NWS Eastern Region Headquarters collaborated with NHC to establish this so everyone was on the same page. Again, there were tons of behind the scenes collaboration going on that the public did not hear or see.

Thought NWS Mt Holly/upton did a great job. Less than thrilled with NHC decisions on the warnings, it seemed like a situation that called for outside the box decisions and they boxed themselves in. Going forward I think they need to consider that if they start issuing warnings on a storm, they gotta assume responsibility for it right up to its either going definitively out to sea or 12 hours post landfall....just too much room for confusion and blowing an opportunity to reach people for whom the Hurricane center and their warnings are the most visible tools available to reach a broad audience. From a forecast perspective they were great.

The briefings were great...like a lot of people here in my realm of work, friends and family I am known as the "weather guy"....an informed consumer of weather info...when people were asking me "how serious is this" and "what should I do" I linked to those briefings on my FB updates and I think it drove home points that the standard warning language and point and click forecasts did not.

[am19psu]

I know I am in the minority in online weather world, but I honestly have no idea what hurricane warnings would have done that NHC/NWS/NOAA/media didn't do. Would people really have been more aware under a hurricane warning? I highly doubt it. Frankenstorm talk started last Thursday.

[MGorse]

Thought NWS Mt Holly/upton did a great job. Less than thrilled with NHC decisions on the warnings, it seemed like a situation that called for outside the box decisions and they boxed themselves in. Going forward I think they need to consider that if they start issuing warnings on a storm, they gotta assume responsibility for it right up to its either going definitively out to sea or 12 hours post landfall....just too much room for confusion and blowing an opportunity to reach people for whom the Hurricane center and their warnings are the most visible tools available to reach a broad audience. From a forecast perspective they were great.

The briefings were great...like a lot of people here in my realm of work, friends and family I am known as the "weather guy"....an informed consumer of weather info...when people were asking me "how serious is this" and "what should I do" I linked to those briefings on my FB updates and I think it drove home points that the standard warning language and point and click forecasts did not.

It was not just the NHC making those decisions.

[MGorse]

I know I am in the minority in online weather world, but I honestly have no idea what hurricane warnings would have done that NHC/NWS/NOAA/media didn't do. Would people really have been more aware under a hurricane warning? I highly doubt it. Frankenstorm talk started last Thursday.

I personally tend to agree.

[NJHurricane]

I know I am in the minority in online weather world, but I honestly have no idea what hurricane warnings would have done that NHC/NWS/NOAA/media didn't do. Would people really have been more aware under a hurricane warning? I highly doubt it. Frankenstorm talk started last Thursday.

Perhaps..there is always that "it won't be a big deal" remnant. I can say though, in the run up to this that was always what the NBD remnant would sight...lack of a hurricane warning. Not saying one would have prompted such people to more appropriate action, but...can't see where it would have hurt, allowing for a common sense decision to not flip the warnings and simply reclassify the storm to something more accurate in post storm analysis.

[NJHurricane]

Just wanted to add that in the context of having to work within the framework put forth...NHC and NWS obviously did a great job to clear a good deal of the confusion amongst media partners and govt/emergency management decision makers. Amongst those who were not in my "no big deal" hardcore category, people gradually understood the nature of the threat because of those efforts. Hopefully there was no harm from any confusion and therefore no foul...just felt like a close call in that respect, especially the initial decision by Bloomberg to not go hardcore for evacuations.

[Parsley]

Would have been nice if someone hammered home to Mr. Bloomberg in NYC how bad Sandy was likely to be before he gave his "normal day" pep talk to the folks of NYC on Sunday. As an elected official he failed miserably. Fast forward 4 days and you have lower Manhattan without power and flooded, people driving 5-6 hours to get in/out of the city and other walking miles to get to work. As for Staten Island and Brooklyn, the pictures speak for themselves.

[Big Jims Videos]

The public information statement released by mt holly will go down in history with the one from New Orleans and Galveston. I posted it to as many places as I could.

[NJHurricane]

The public information statement released by mt holly will go down in history with the one from New Orleans and Galveston. I posted it to as many places as I could.

Same here...perfectly timed and worded

[HM]

Agreed Adam.

A big thank you to Mt. Holly for a job well done. The briefing packages were very insightful. You made spot on forecasts. Bunch of guys @work were asking what to expect,

I would just link them the latest briefing. Adequate timing to get preparations done.

you guys. You did everything you could.

Agreed here as well. The PNS issued kicked major ass and I'm glad they went that route with their wording.

[NorthNJwx]

I thought the forecasts/warnings were spot-on and well communicated. People knew what they were up against.

To me, it's all about coastal infrastructure. In the aerials and ground-level damage photos I've seen, two constants tend to stand out to me:

1. Buildings on ground level are in big trouble. I don't think this comes as a surprise to anyone, but in storms like this (and '62, and '44, and I'm sure '92 in many places as well), the entirety of the barrier islands go underwater, and unless your building is raised, it's going to be flooded. Granted, a lot of ground-level buildings have been there for decades and it's nobody's fault today that they are not raised on pilings - to raise an existing building is a huge undertaking, and so there are thousands of ground-level buildings on NJ's barrier islands that were grandfathered in. But absolutely all new buildings, no exceptions, must be raised significantly. The damage to raised buildings appears to be fairly minimal. If anyone has seen pictures from Holgate, on the south end of LBI (this is where my grandparents' house and my weather station is, though they are on the bayside and elevated), there are tens of beachfront houses that remain standing on their pilings - despite the fact that the dunes, beach, and all sand that was underneath the houses is totally gone. The houses look like oil platforms sitting in the ocean, but they're still there. No water got into their living floors. Elevated houses on the bayside probably fared even better, since wave action and erosion aren't threats there the way they are on the oceanfront. All of the houses with interior water damage probably would have escaped this if they were elevated to a proper height. Putting a house up on 6-7 foot pilings really makes all the difference.

2. Where substantial dunes exist, breaches generally did not occur. The beach replenishment project on LBI appears to have paid dividends - Ship Bottom and Surf City were two areas that got the replenishment, and their dunes appear to have largely survived. Harvey Cedars, which was leveled in '62, appears to have been largely saved by its replenishment project. While beach/dune replenishment projects are extremely costly and not permanent, I don't think their importance can be understated.

I think these need to be the areas of focus going forward: raised buildings and better dune systems. In areas with boardwalks, dunes were often simply neglected. This can't be the case; when boardwalks are rebuilt, dunes need to be constructed in front of them. Even in places where solid dunes were washed away, having some protection was surely better than nothing, and staving off the ocean as long as possible during an ongoing storm is always a good thing.

[Sunny and Warm]

I thought the forecasts/warnings were spot-on and well communicated. People knew what they were up against.

To me, it's all about coastal infrastructure. In the aerials and ground-level damage photos I've seen, two constants tend to stand out to me:

1. Buildings on ground level are in big trouble. I don't think this comes as a surprise to anyone, but in storms like this (and '62, and '44, and I'm sure '92 in many places as well), the entirety of the barrier islands go underwater, and unless your building is raised, it's going to be flooded. Granted, a lot of ground-level buildings have been there for decades and it's nobody's fault today that they are not raised on pilings - to raise an existing building is a huge undertaking, and so there are thousands of ground-level buildings on NJ's barrier islands that were grandfathered in. But absolutely all new buildings, no exceptions, must be raised significantly. The damage to raised buildings appears to be fairly minimal. If anyone has seen pictures from Holgate, on the south end of LBI (this is where my grandparents' house and my weather station is, though they are on the bayside and elevated), there are tens of beachfront houses that remain standing on their pilings - despite the fact that the dunes, beach, and all sand that was underneath the houses is totally gone. The houses look like oil platforms sitting in the ocean, but they're still there. No water got into their living floors. Elevated houses on the bayside probably fared even better, since wave action and erosion aren't threats there the way they are on the oceanfront. All of the houses with interior water damage probably would have escaped this if they were elevated to a proper height. Putting a house up on 6-7 foot pilings really makes all the difference.

2. Where substantial dunes exist, breaches generally did not occur. The beach replenishment project on LBI appears to have paid dividends - Ship Bottom and Surf City were two areas that got the replenishment, and their dunes appear to have largely survived. Harvey Cedars, which was leveled in '62, appears to have been largely saved by its replenishment project. While beach/dune replenishment projects are extremely costly and not permanent, I don't think their importance can be understated.

I think these need to be the areas of focus going forward: raised buildings and better dune systems. In areas with boardwalks, dunes were often simply neglected. This can't be the case; when boardwalks are rebuilt, dunes need to be constructed in front of them. Even in places where solid dunes were washed away, having some protection was surely better than nothing, and staving off the ocean as long as possible during an ongoing storm is always a good thing.

good post. Here on Hilton Head, which is a barrier island itself, we tax vacationers 2% of the rental rate toward beach replenishment funds for the 12 miles of beach we have. That applies to hotels, private homes, condos, and B&B's for stays under 90 days. Seems to work well.

[mike2010]

Something I just thought of..

I wasn't keeping up with rain totals during the storm, since they seemed to be on the low end. I think middlesex county only received like 2 to 3 inches ?

This surely wouldn't of caused flooding from the raritan river all the way back in Piscataway. (that I heard did occur) It had to be with the huge storm surge into raritan bay preventing any of the rains / rivers from receding. A small blessing in disguise here...if 4 to 8 inches of rain did occur, it would of been a disaster...all the way back to bound brook.

Worse than with Floyd I think, since this giant surge would of basically been blocking the rivers from receding ?

#2 , Do we even know how much has eroded from the raritan bay with Sandy ? Makes ya kind of wonder with heavy rain events in the future... combined with a long duration of easterly wind, if this could make things worse from here on out. If a lot of the bay has indeed been eroded.

Since with coastal flooding (easterly wind) storms from here on out....More of the surge will be coming in during just minor coastal flooding events now.

Combined with heavy rain events = high river levels....along with more of the flow being blocked.

Bigger headaches down the road for areas like New Brunswick, East Brunswick - Route 1 area, River Road area...even all the way back to bound brook ? hmm.

[Rainshadow]

I know I am in the minority in online weather world, but I honestly have no idea what hurricane warnings would have done that NHC/NWS/NOAA/media didn't do. Would people really have been more aware under a hurricane warning? I highly doubt it. Frankenstorm talk started last Thursday.

I am with you on this. People do an excellent job of justifying/rationalizing their decisions even if its perilous. I could not convince my mother-in-law (she likes me) to leave her house in Yonkers. The governor ordered people off the barrier islands and I read 60-70% of the people on Brigantine stayed. Alot of times because of the time needed, these evacuation orders have to be done before watches or warnings are issued. Saw on the national evening news last night how a 12-year-old girl in Margate asked her parents why are we not evacuating when the governor told us to do so?

The Irene and Floyd experiences where damage was worse inland only re-enforces the rationalization process used to justify not evacuating. Gloria was not much help for NYC and NJ as she struck close to low tide. One of the first technical papers I did with the NWS (along with Dave Wert) was how lucky the NYC metro area was that Gloria struck nearly at low tide. A high tide hit would have established records. So now we have to go back to the 1992 nor'easter or the benchmark we were saying 1962. People really did not have a point of reference plus all of the rationalization processes that goes on kick in.

As for the system itself, we are yet to find any sustained hurricane force winds along the NJ coast. In a backhanded way the system being declared post tropical (also the lack of sustained hurricane force winds) will prevent the automatic higher hurricane deductibles from occurring.

[famartin]

As for the system itself, we are yet to find any sustained hurricane force winds along the NJ coast. In a backhanded way the system being declared post tropical (also the lack of sustained hurricane force winds) will prevent the automatic higher hurricane deductibles from occurring.

A little off topic for this thread, but your comment here got me to thinking about conversion factors for sustained winds versus gusts and I ran into this chart:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/Meetings/HC31/documents/Doc.3.part2.pdf

(page 12)

Based on that table, it would seem likely that you would need to find a place which gusted to ~96 mph before you had a good chance of finding sustained hurricane force winds. I don't recall any reports of gusts that high.

[Pellice]

Will Sandy mean the beginning of a de facto - or planned - slow retreat from Jersey barrier islands? It's clear that the decision to rebuild everything has been made, in principle, but do you think there will at some point be recognition that a couple of places are really not viable without massive dollar investments annually? And yes, Sea Bright is the poster child for such places. Squeezed between the ocean and the Shrewsbury River (which really wants to exit into the ocean right at the entrance of Sandy Hook, and is only kept from doing so by the constant effort to keep that road open into the Hook), Sea Bright apparently needs a total rebuilding, ground up. LBI is so narrow in a couple of places that it is clear again that only massive amounts of tax dollars will keep it in one piece. It's not just a question of rebuilding houses, but rebuilding geography (dunes and waterways), physical infrastructure including seawalls and jetties, and electrical infrastructure, all these paid for by tax dollars. The Jersey Shore is clearly too important economically to lose, but I do wonder whether pieces of it will gradually be abandoned.

I will be curious to see how Island Beach State Park - I mean the natural features - fared in the storm. Island Beach is the "natural" Jersey barrier island, and is constantly shifting and changing.

[Boch23]

Will Sandy mean the beginning of a de facto - or planned - slow retreat from Jersey barrier islands? It's clear that the decision to rebuild everything has been made, in principle, but do you think there will at some point be recognition that a couple of places are really not viable without massive dollar investments annually? And yes, Sea Bright is the poster child for such places. Squeezed between the ocean and the Shrewsbury River (which really wants to exit into the ocean right at the entrance of Sandy Hook, and is only kept from doing so by the constant effort to keep that road open into the Hook), Sea Bright apparently needs a total rebuilding, ground up. LBI is so narrow in a couple of places that it is clear again that only massive amounts of tax dollars will keep it in one piece. It's not just a question of rebuilding houses, but rebuilding geography (dunes and waterways), physical infrastructure including seawalls and jetties, and electrical infrastructure, all these paid for by tax dollars. The Jersey Shore is clearly too important economically to lose, but I do wonder whether pieces of it will gradually be abandoned.

I will be curious to see how Island Beach State Park - I mean the natural features - fared in the storm. Island Beach is the "natural" Jersey barrier island, and is constantly shifting and changing.

As long as houses can be built on those islands they will be built.

[Parsley]

Will Sandy mean the beginning of a de facto - or planned - slow retreat from Jersey barrier islands? It's clear that the decision to rebuild everything has been made, in principle, but do you think there will at some point be recognition that a couple of places are really not viable without massive dollar investments annually? And yes, Sea Bright is the poster child for such places. Squeezed between the ocean and the Shrewsbury River (which really wants to exit into the ocean right at the entrance of Sandy Hook, and is only kept from doing so by the constant effort to keep that road open into the Hook). LBI is so narrow in a couple of places that it is clear again that only massive amounts of tax dollars will keep it in one piece. It's not just a question of rebuilding houses, but rebuilding geography (dunes and waterways), physical infrastructure including seawalls and jetties, and electrical infrastructure, all these paid for by tax dollars. The Jersey Shore is clearly too important economically to lose, but I do wonder whether pieces of it will gradually be abandoned.

I will be curious to see how Island Beach State Park - I mean the natural features - fared in the storm. Island Beach is the "natural" Jersey barrier island, and is constantly shifting and changing.

Very good question. You see it up and down the coasts, but man some of these shore homes squeezed together so close to the ocean is just a recipe for disaster. Trust me, I'd love to live on the ocean, probably nothing as majestic as that...but I'd always be worried about coastal flood events as they tend to occur on a major level atleast once or twice each decade.

[Parsley]

As long as houses can be built on those islands they will be built.

And that is the truth.