Big Jims Videos Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I spent the better part of yesterday in my hometown of Belmar, looking at the devastation with an open jaw and sometimes through tears. One thing I noticed...and it wasn't from just who I was talking to, it was from conversations I overheard...is the theme of "I never thought it would be this bad." Obviously, the warnings were there, but something didn't register in the minds of my friends and family who even decided to stay 3 blocks in from the water. Could it be Irene didn't pan out to the danger it was thought to be (although going through one of those 70-80 mph gusts at pt pleasant last year for a few seconds was enough for me) Could it be no hurricane warnings? Could it be people scoff at a Cat 1? Something didn't click..and as my friend continues to make water rescues in the Seaside area today, I must ask...what went wrong? What needs to be changed? How many of the people heard or read that public information statement issued by Mt Holly besides us on here? Much like Ike, does the SS scale need tweeking? Did we experience typical surge of a cat 1? My friends at the shore were caught off guard. How do we make sure that doesn't happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Absolutely nothing NOAA/NHC/NWS could have done would have prepared people for what happened. The last time anything even close to this occurred was 1962, 50 years ago. People are never prepared for 1 in 50 year, 1 in 100 year, 1 in 500 year, etc events, no matter what they are told ahead of time. It's human nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Absolutely nothing NOAA/NHC/NWS could have done would have prepared people for what happened. The last time anything even close to this occurred was 1962, 50 years ago. People are never prepared for 1 in 50 year, 1 in 100 year, 1 in 500 year, etc events, no matter what they are told ahead of time. It's human nature. I would say though that the IKE scale captured the magnitude of the potential damage much better than the SS scale. Sandy was mentioned in the same sentence with Katrina, Wilma, and Ike with the IKE scale, and that turned out to be a good barometer. Sandy wasn't as powerful as Katrina and Wilma at its core, but it certainly had a much broader impact which IMHO made up for the lack of core intensity. Charlie was incredible at its core, but no one except people into weather and who were in Charlie's path will remember that storm in 20-30 years. Sandy will be remembered for decades, if not longer. Same as those in the upper echelon of the IKE scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Absolutely nothing NOAA/NHC/NWS could have done would have prepared people for what happened. The last time anything even close to this occurred was 1962, 50 years ago. People are never prepared for 1 in 50 year, 1 in 100 year, 1 in 500 year, etc events, no matter what they are told ahead of time. It's human nature. Agree 100%. The mentality today of many people is to think they are invincable. I'm not sure had "hurricane" warnings (for an approaching "CAT. 1 which too many people seem to focus on) been hoisted would people have "acted" differently in its advance. Maybe on a preperation level.....but not in terms of evacuations. People are stubborn. I may be wrong, but that's just my thinking. My next question is how will us weather weenies that "cheer on" derechos/hurricanes/etc. feel going forward when big threats are looming? Will this event change our mindset? I guess that is a question for another thread, but it has me wondering...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Agree 100%. The mentality today of many people is to think they are invincable. I'm not sure had "hurricane" warnings (for an approaching "CAT. 1 which too many people seem to focus on) been hoisted would people have "acted" differently in its advance. Maybe on a preperation level.....but not in terms of evacuations. People are stubborn. I may be wrong, but that's just my thinking. My next question is how will us weather weenies that "cheer on" derechos/hurricanes/etc. feel going forward when big threats are looming? Will this event change our mindset? I guess that is a question for another thread, but it has me wondering...... Not in the slightest. We cheer big hits in the NFL, and on a rare occasion, someone gets paralyzed during it. We pause in somber distress, and then a week later are cheering big hits again. As Adam said, it's human nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 One thing that might help is getting the briefing packages that Mt Holly put out prior to the storm into the publics hands. They are very helpful and I sent them to my colleagues at work. I think it really brought the message home. Those briefing packages are fantastic. And, I know they are up there for the public, but 99.9% of the public has no idea about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Will this event change our mindset? I guess that is a question for another thread, but it has me wondering...... It's probably going to increase the perceived false alarm rate in the short term. If there is an Irene in 2013, people are going to remember Sandy and then when it isn't as "bad," blame NWS/EOC/etc for making too big of a deal out of it. It's human nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I would say though that the IKE scale captured the magnitude of the potential damage much better than the SS scale. Sandy was mentioned in the same sentence with Katrina, Wilma, and Ike with the IKE scale, and that turned out to be a good barometer. Sandy wasn't as powerful as Katrina and Wilma at its core, but it certainly had a much broader impact which IMHO made up for the lack of core intensity. Charlie was incredible at its core, but no one except people into weather and who were in Charlie's path will remember that storm in 20-30 years. Sandy will be remembered for decades, if not longer. Same as those in the upper echelon of the IKE scale. I would lovelovelove if we could figure out a way to convey both S-S and IKE, but I don't seen it happening in the short term. It took 25 years for the S-S scale to take root. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 It's probably going to increase the perceived false alarm rate in the short term. If there is an Irene in 2013, people are going to remember Sandy and then when it isn't as "bad," blame NWS/EOC/etc for making too big of a deal out of it. It's human nature. Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I can say by talking to a lot of people is people are complaicent and so set in their ways. So many of my friends I told about this hurricane and all knew by my posts but some of their friends and family didn't know what was going to happen as they were stuck watching their normal shows like dancing with the stars and other shows and didnt care about watching or listening to the news, plus radio stations barely put any effort into putting out information about what was going to happen blind siding a lot of people. Not sure if yous agree with me or not on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Using Irene as a benchmark was a mistake by many people in the preperation for Sandy. I heard it countless times when I was telling family and friends in NYC/LI about my worries with Sandy. I honestly don't think NHC hurricane warnings of a Cat. 1 approaching would have changed their mindset, especially not in the wake of Cat. 1 Irene. The onus on categories needs to disappear by the media(not forecasters) and public. Monday morning, I called my dad to ask how my grandma's house was doing regarding the tidal flooding......this was 10 hours before landfall....he's said jokingly "I'll be going down shortly to check it out, if you hear that was I floating down the canal then its bad".....an hour later he gets within 2 blocks of her home already surrounded by water. He had to wade through the water and get her out of the house before water came in during the evening high tide. Just an example of how people (even my own father who knows I'm schooled on meteorology) scoffed at Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I was thinking over the weekend that something like the NESIS rating, but expanded to cover more scenarios than snowstorms might be more helpful to the public. That is, an impact rating to illustrate how they'll be affected. The SS ratings can stay, of course. Sandy was a perfect example of how a Category 1 hurricane could be an Impact 5 on a theoretical societal impact scale... I'll also add that the whole transition to "Post-Tropical Storm Sandy" was COMPLETELY lost on the public, and just added to the confusion imo. It's a separate point from the one above, I'm just pointing out how ridiculous it seemed to me when it was being reported... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I'll also add that the whole transition to "Post-Tropical Storm Sandy" was COMPLETELY lost on the public, and just added to the confusion imo. It's a separate point from the one above, I'm just pointing out how ridiculous it seemed to me when it was being reported... completely agree. That was one of those "inside the beltway" issues that went WAAAY over the public's head. The more it was explained and highlighted, the more confused the public got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 completely agree. That was one of those "inside the beltway" issues that went WAAAY over the public's head. The more it was explained and highlighted, the more confused the public got. Whats funny about your statement is that it didn't come from "inside the beltway". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 It's probably going to increase the perceived false alarm rate in the short term. If there is an Irene in 2013, people are going to remember Sandy and then when it isn't as "bad," blame NWS/EOC/etc for making too big of a deal out of it. It's human nature. This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I know this was sort of mentioned in the media, but I think the only way that people would've taken more notice would be if we said something like "this is a nor'easter plus a hurricane hitting at the same time, so twice the devastation potential." Perhaps not exactly true, but it might've gotten the point across. Otherwise I don't know how we would've gotten people to take this more seriously. Honestly, I didn't really think I'd ever see a storm make a sharp left turn and slam right into Atlantic City like this. In a lot of ways this really was the "more perfect storm", and its damn hard to prepare people for something THIS rare. Its like trying to prepare Los Angeles for a 9.0 earthquake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I'll add a little more in regards to people's past experiences: Even though the NWS said that flooding on the Delaware was not expected, local officials around Trenton kinda ignored them with the saying "you can never predict the weather" and told people to be ready for flooding along the river. That's the one thing everyone has come to associate with hurricanes inland: flooding. This was a totally different monster for northern and central New Jersey as compared to past experience of everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 people don't pay attention to weather warning for the same reason they don't install smoke detectors in their homes ( or replace batteries) The "it'll never happen to me syndrom" until it hits up close then they go on a mission. I quit talking about weather to most people i work with, its clear, they could give a chit about it, even if a "sandy" was on our doorstep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 Whats funny about your statement is that it didn't come from "inside the beltway". I meant "inside the Met community" when I said that by using a term that is more recognizable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I saw a lot of TV interviews the night before where people said "Irene wasn't so bad, so I think we'll stay." But frankly, I think that was just an excuse for people who always find an excuse to "buck the overhype". If it wasn't Irene, they would have had a list of 5-10 other excuses to explain themselves. Then you have the people who just think they're being badass by ignoring dangers. As for me... between the models posted here, Mr. Schwartz's blog and the local AFDs, I was watching this for a week and had all my prep done by Thursday night. My friends and family were prepared too, though we were all very fortunate and only suffered minor impacts. I think overall, most people probably were well-prepared, and for those on the coast there really wasn't anything they could do other than evacuate. The mets made a slam dunk on this one and their hard work is very appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I saw a lot of TV interviews the night before where people said "Irene wasn't so bad, so I think we'll stay." But frankly, I think that was just an excuse for people who always find an excuse to "buck the overhype". If it wasn't Irene, they would have had a list of 5-10 other excuses to explain themselves. Then you have the people who just think they're being badass by ignoring dangers. As for me... between the models posted here, Mr. Schwartz's blog and the local AFDs, I was watching this for a week and had all my prep done by Thursday night. My friends and family were prepared too, though we were all very fortunate and only suffered minor impacts. I think overall, most people probably were well-prepared, and for those on the coast there really wasn't anything they could do other than evacuate. The mets made a slam dunk on this one and their hard work is very appreciated. and the people that chose to stay behind, with children, should be arrested! and Why do we continue put police. fire and EMS at risk, to go back and rescue these A-holes who ignore evac?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 I spent the better part of yesterday in my hometown of Belmar, looking at the devastation with an open jaw and sometimes through tears. One thing I noticed...and it wasn't from just who I was talking to, it was from conversations I overheard...is the theme of "I never thought it would be this bad." Obviously, the warnings were there, but something didn't register in the minds of my friends and family who even decided to stay 3 blocks in from the water. Could it be Irene didn't pan out to the danger it was thought to be (although going through one of those 70-80 mph gusts at pt pleasant last year for a few seconds was enough for me) Could it be no hurricane warnings? Could it be people scoff at a Cat 1? Something didn't click..and as my friend continues to make water rescues in the Seaside area today, I must ask...what went wrong? What needs to be changed? How many of the people heard or read that public information statement issued by Mt Holly besides us on here? Much like Ike, does the SS scale need tweeking? Did we experience typical surge of a cat 1? My friends at the shore were caught off guard. How do we make sure that doesn't happen again. I think it was a combination of everything you listed. Then you have the other people that have the imby tunnel vision that since nothing happen to them "that bad" and then that opinion carriers over to the next storm. It will frankly be a never ending cycle that will never break. You know I hope a storm like this changes people's opinions but I'm not counting on human stubbornness and stupidity changing anytime soon. Unless a cat 3 or higher takes the same path and makes the east coast look like the barrier islands. Then you might have people's opinion change. Nws and govt offices did all they could at some point the public needs to take some responsibility and use the information they have in front of them. The only thing I would like to have seen is a storm surge warning or something to that effect. I don't think coastal flood warnings got the seriousness across. How many times a year to you have coastal flood warning/advisory? In my meaningless opinion I think storm surge and coastal flooding should be adressed as separate entities. Would it have made a difference? I have no idea but just an idea I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 At this point, I'm convinced it was a bunch of factors: 1. Irene hangover. Like you guys mentioned above, people compared it to Irene. And while Irene was bad and hyped because it was the 1st hurricane in soo many years to come directly at NYC and jersey, it never lived up to the media hype. People never really thought hthata a cat 1 wasn't soo bad, and Irene couldn't be worse, (a few smart souls did and heeded warnings). 2.it'll never. Appen to me attitude. We're all ingrained with it. He only difference is, people on eastern educate themselves enough to realize the inherit dangers of this threat. It's just like "being trained at your job". The general public hears hurricane, and think "oo wind" maybe some rain..no big deal. They don't think surge, main roads being cut off, extended power failures, gas leaks, structural collapse, fires, eltrocutions. All the secondary hazards other than rain and wind. 3.if people educated themselves a little more on dangers to their locations from Mother Nature and maybe miss n episode or two of dancing its the stars, we'd all be better off. 4. This is my biggest annoyance with all this: for people inside mandatory evac zones and decide to stay.... YOU'RE ON YOUR OWN. As a firefighter, I see what my fellow brothers are doing. Put in an unnecessary risk due to people's ignorance. The whole "I don't wanna leave my home " attitude is complete BS. Whatever you think you can do to stop the inevitable, just stop... Countless rescuers get seriously injured or killed bc of this. We risk a lot to save a lot. We don't question you're decisions in the heat of the moment, its not our place to. we serve the poeple. People are still being evacuated in ocean county NBC they decided to stay. You live on a barrier island !!!! Get off the island when a mandatory evac is ordered. Honestly, I think when a mandatory evac is ordered, some type of martial law should be implemented. I dunno, people obviously don't get it. That being said, govt should have a way to help those that need hel getting out. It seems NJ did. Splendid job of that, sans AC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 It's the belief that bad things only happen to other people. Also, People think the media overhypes everything (and they do) so when something like Sandy comes along, they just think the media is 'doing it again'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 4. This is my biggest annoyance with all this: for people inside mandatory evac zones and decide to stay.... YOU'RE ON YOUR OWN. As a firefighter, I see what my fellow brothers are doing. Put in an unnecessary risk due to people's ignorance. The whole "I don't wanna leave my home " attitude is complete BS. Whatever you think you can do to stop the inevitable, just stop... Countless rescuers get seriously injured or killed bc of this. We risk a lot to save a lot. We don't question you're decisions in the heat of the moment, its not our place to. we serve the poeple. People are still being evacuated in ocean county NBC they decided to stay. You live on a barrier island !!!! Get off the island when a mandatory evac is ordered. Honestly, I think when a mandatory evac is ordered, some type of martial law should be implemented. I dunno, people obviously don't get it. That being said, govt should have a way to help those that need hel getting out. It seems NJ did. Splendid job of that, sans AC. Yeah this was kind of angering to me. Its basically the whole don't drive through flooded roadways thing but in on a much more serious scale. Over and over people say don't drive through. Then they end up getting stuck and calling for help. I think its great they insituted a law that comes with a fine and 2 points on your license if you get stuck. Maybe the same can be done with mandatory evacs but with a much larger fine......if there is one thing people understand over everything, its money. Still wouldn't negate the danger first responders are put in but it could make people think twice about staying as if the storm warnings themselves aren't enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 At this point, I'm convinced it was a bunch of factors: 1. Irene hangover. Like you guys mentioned above, people compared it to Irene. And while Irene was bad and hyped because it was the 1st hurricane in soo many years to come directly at NYC and jersey, it never lived up to the media hype. People never really thought hthata a cat 1 wasn't soo bad, and Irene couldn't be worse, (a few smart souls did and heeded warnings). 2.it'll never. Appen to me attitude. We're all ingrained with it. He only difference is, people on eastern educate themselves enough to realize the inherit dangers of this threat. It's just like "being trained at your job". The general public hears hurricane, and think "oo wind" maybe some rain..no big deal. They don't think surge, main roads being cut off, extended power failures, gas leaks, structural collapse, fires, eltrocutions. All the secondary hazards other than rain and wind. 3.if people educated themselves a little more on dangers to their locations from Mother Nature and maybe miss n episode or two of dancing its the stars, we'd all be better off. 4. This is my biggest annoyance with all this: for people inside mandatory evac zones and decide to stay.... YOU'RE ON YOUR OWN. As a firefighter, I see what my fellow brothers are doing. Put in an unnecessary risk due to people's ignorance. The whole "I don't wanna leave my home " attitude is complete BS. Whatever you think you can do to stop the inevitable, just stop... Countless rescuers get seriously injured or killed bc of this. We risk a lot to save a lot. We don't question you're decisions in the heat of the moment, its not our place to. we serve the poeple. People are still being evacuated in ocean county NBC they decided to stay. You live on a barrier island !!!! Get off the island when a mandatory evac is ordered. Honestly, I think when a mandatory evac is ordered, some type of martial law should be implemented. I dunno, people obviously don't get it. That being said, govt should have a way to help those that need hel getting out. It seems NJ did. Splendid job of that, sans AC. +1 sometime, if we ever sit down and drink a beer, i'll tell ya about in '96 when an A-hole wouldn't evac his family, including a quadriplegic from his home from along the susq. river during that bad winter, when all the ice came and tore bridges down etc. they tried several days in advance. But when his house was about to be swept off the foundation, guess who had to go get them. dumba$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vogelhund Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 PP&L in Bucks County estimates power will not return until 11/4/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 To quote Mark Twain, “The cat, having sat upon a hot stove lid, will not sit upon a hot stove lid again. But he won't sit upon a cold stove lid, either”. In this case, I think the opposite was true. Having only experienced Irene (the cold stove lid), some people felt little need to prepare or evacuate. As we have seen with these events around the world, people will definitely react, if not overreact to the next such storm. The NWS and NHC did an absolutely superb job on this storm and their warnings were well conveyed by the media. I also think that the argument over whether an official hurricane warning would have impressed more people is silly. When state and local governments ordered evacuations, they were in essence saying that the time for an individual to asses the danger was over and that the decision had already been made for them. While I have tremendous sympathy for those who are suffering from the storm, I would really feel bad if somehow the NHC is turned into a scapegoat, when they should be receiving high praise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 People talking about hurricane warnings should have been in place instead of high wind warnings somewhat makes me laugh, mainly because there were preparations and actions already rolling before any watches or warnings were officially issued across the region. There was a reason for what was done, and the explanation of this by the NHC/NWS was distributed but there are some that just did not want to hear it (I wish the bulk of the media would have helped more in explaining this). There was quite a bit of negative comments on this especially via social media, however at that point instead of arguing about it we all should have been hammering home the seriousness of this storm, hurricane warnings or not! The numerous briefing packages issued by my office and even some PNS's that helped to also convey the seriousness of this storm were all available. These were even posted on Facebook and Twitter, and I know these were also passed around from there. We even had a few media interviews from the Midwest that were mainly sparked by the 12th page of the briefing which was of a personal plea. If everyone could only see the behind the scenes here at the NWS offices when an event like this is developing and then happening, most if not all would have a totally different perspective. It is tragic what happened as a result of Sandy, however the message was clear that his was an extremely dangerous siutation and even could be historic. We now know the outcome, but it saddens me to see the loss of life and those who did not heed the warnings and get out of harms way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted October 31, 2012 Share Posted October 31, 2012 FWI The NHC not declaring it a hurricane hit helps PEOPLE with insurance claims. If this was a cane there would be less coverage. Been dealing with adjusters all day..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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