Met1985 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Very active the last 12 hours in Haywood county. First Some of our community college was torched last night and now a school bus full of kids has turned over on it's side. Also sorry to cause such a stir with my post the other night. Just thought that America has become a place were people are put down all the time for some reason or another. Sorry that I felt like we should rise above. This will be that last I will post about this.I really like most of all the poster in the SE forum. Seems like just about everyone brings something good to the board. Again sorry to cause such a stir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Very active the last 12 hours in Haywood county. First Some of our community college was torched last night and now a school bus full of kids has turned over on it's side. Also sorry to cause such a stir with my post the other night. Just thought that America has become a place were people are put down all the time for some reason or another. Sorry that I felt like we should rise above. This will be that last I will post about this.I really like most of all the poster in the SE forum. Seems like just about everyone brings something good to the board. Again sorry to cause such a stir. No need to apologize. It wouldn't be the internet if we were all civil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Very active the last 12 hours in Haywood county. First Some of our community college was torched last night and now a school bus full of kids has turned over on it's side. Also sorry to cause such a stir with my post the other night. Just thought that America has become a place were people are put down all the time for some reason or another. Sorry that I felt like we should rise above. This will be that last I will post about this.I really like most of all the poster in the SE forum. Seems like just about everyone brings something good to the board. Again sorry to cause such a stir. Is that campus in Clyde? I'm planning on attending a mathematics conference there in March. I'm looking forward to it, and I hope not too much of your campus was damaged and that no one was injured. Also, don't apologize for expecting respect and decency. I appreciate it. I'm most definitely not a member of the "every kid deserves a trophy to build their self-esteem" crowd, but I do feel that there are ways to express disagreement that are more cordial than what is often written here. I'm not suggesting (as some seem to think I am) that every viewpoint is equally correct, but I prefer substance to rhetoric when condemning someone's forecast; i.e., If you disagree with someone's forecast, tell me why, please. Rebuttal without logical argument is worthless and empty. Moving on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Not feeling this cold rain today. I know if the pattern stays this way through winter, though, we should be line for some snow. Just hope it doesn't turn and it ends up cold and dry or wet and too warm for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Very active the last 12 hours in Haywood county. First Some of our community college was torched last night and now a school bus full of kids has turned over on it's side. Also sorry to cause such a stir with my post the other night. Just thought that America has become a place were people are put down all the time for some reason or another. Sorry that I felt like we should rise above. This will be that last I will post about this.I really like most of all the poster in the SE forum. Seems like just about everyone brings something good to the board. Again sorry to cause such a stir. Hey Met...No need to apologize. I was just stating the way it used to be around these weather forums and Queenscity has been around these forums a long time. No hard feelings. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 No need to apologize. It wouldn't be the internet if we were all civil. Thanks burger I appreciate it! Is that campus in Clyde? I'm planning on attending a mathematics conference there in March. I'm looking forward to it, and I hope not too much of your campus was damaged and that no one was injured. Also, don't apologize for expecting respect and decency. I appreciate it. I'm most definitely not a member of the "every kid deserves a trophy to build their self-esteem" crowd, but I do feel that there are ways to express disagreement that are more cordial than what is often written here. I'm not suggesting (as some seem to think I am) that every viewpoint is equally correct, but I prefer substance to rhetoric when condemning someone's forecast; i.e., If you disagree with someone's forecast, tell me why, please. Rebuttal without logical argument is worthless and empty. Moving on... Ya it is the Clyde campus. Yes I agree. The pattern is crap Because of the Pacific but the latest Euro run is showing something quite different. Yes I agree to post something about a snowstorm when there is no cold at that time showing is pretty far fetched. Hey Met...No need to apologize. I was just stating the way it used to be around these weather forums and Queenscity has been around these forums a long time. No hard feelings. :-) Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I will be trying to keep up with the Kentucky-Duke game tonight. Should be great and go Blue Devils! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I will be trying to keep up with the Kentucky-Duke game tonight. Should be great and go Blue Devils! Same here. Going over to a buddy's house to watch it, since I don't have cable. Last season I could watch all the Duke games on ESPN3, but now ESPN has locked it down and no longer shows games on ESPN3 that it will also be airing on ESPN, ESPN2, etc. ESPN3 is supposed to be an "exclusive content" provider now and not just a mirror of the main networks. That's code for "We'll show you all the games that no one really wants to see on our great channel ESPN3!" At least I can still watch a lot of tennis on there during the Grand Slams, but we'll see how long that lasts. I know. Why complain? Pony up the money and I can watch anything I want. The thing is I could care less about all those other worthless stations on cable or satellite, so I can't justify the cost. If I could purchase channels a la carte, I'd do it immediately, but that's the last thing cable and satellite providers will want to do. Their profits would go way down as people stop purchasing worthless channels and only buy the really popular ones. Anyway, I'm glad I've got friends who will invite me over for the big games! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 No need to apologize. It wouldn't be the internet if we were all civil. This... But don't let a keyboard detract from what we are known for, Southern hospitality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 If those that think what Queencity said was bad, you certainly wouldn't of been able to handle the way it used to be. Back in the WWBB and early Eastern days, some were here to try to hurt your feelings. And worked a lot of the times. This is true and I dont see that as a bad thing. It drove us all to learn as much as we could and be better as posters and not make silly posts or threads if we werent ready, if that makes sense. It just goes along with our nature in this country now that every opinion is important and valid and every one is a special little snowflake that deserves to be heard. Nowadays on this board, it seems like people are happy being intellectually lazy and sticking to IMBY posts or making up storm threats where, in reality, there are none. This is what I miss I agree...I remember reading forever before making my first post and even then I was scared that I might get jumped on. Like you said, you made sure what you were posting was correct. As I'm sure you remember, back then there wasn't a southeast forum. We were all fighting w/ the mid-atlantic and notheast to try to get any info we could for us down south and it got ugly sometimes. This is also true Very active the last 12 hours in Haywood county. First Some of our community college was torched last night and now a school bus full of kids has turned over on it's side. Also sorry to cause such a stir with my post the other night. Just thought that America has become a place were people are put down all the time for some reason or another. Sorry that I felt like we should rise above. This will be that last I will post about this.I really like most of all the poster in the SE forum. Seems like just about everyone brings something good to the board. Again sorry to cause such a stir. I hope the kids are okay You didn't cause a stir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Great win for Duke tonight against a tough team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Hey, Larry!! So how come there are so few weak Nino's? And is there a discernible pattern? Or is it 2 back to back, one 15 years later, then nothing for 20 years, and then another cluster? That's just way too great a frequency with coldest winters to be just random, eh? Of course it isn't a huge sample....how far back can we find applicable Enso records? You'd think the Woodland culture could have been seeing them on the 8 year average. And could it be a sun spot thing? Can you correlate with sun spot cycles? Those two averages are pretty close together, lol. Man, there has to be a pattern somewhere Thanks, Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Hey, Larry!! So how come there are so few weak Nino's? And is there a discernible pattern? Or is it 2 back to back, one 15 years later, then nothing for 20 years, and then another cluster? That's just way too great a frequency with coldest winters to be just random, eh? Of course it isn't a huge sample....how far back can we find applicable Enso records? You'd think the Woodland culture could have been seeing them on the 8 year average. And could it be a sun spot thing? Can you correlate with sun spot cycles? Those two averages are pretty close together, lol. Man, there has to be a pattern somewhere Thanks, Tony Tony, 1) Thre have been 16 weak Nino fall/winters in ~140 years by my count. That is ~1 in 9 winters. Considering that there are eight different ENSO phases in my system of classifying, 1 in 9 is about par. 2) Six of the 16 were within back to back. 3) They have been more frequent during -PDO regimes vs. +PDO regimes. I'm talking regimes, not DJF, itself. My theory is that this is due to -PDO regimes reducing the freq. of moderate to strong Ninos. Some of the Ninos that would have gone on to be mod. or strong end up being only weak. So, lower freq. of mod to strong Ninos but higher freq. for weak Ninos during -PDO regimes. We had no weak Ninos between 1977-8 and 2004-5. The PDO regime was largely + during that period. 4) I haven't analyzed correlations of sunspot cycles with weak Ninos. 4) There are pretty good monthly Nino 3.4 SST anom. records back to 1871. Also, JMA SST anom.'s go back to 1868. These help to verify 3.4 due to a decent correlation. Finally, there's monthly SOI data back to 1876, which also helps to veriify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 That's just way too great a frequency with coldest winters to be just random, eh? Of course it isn't a huge sample....how far back can we find applicable Enso records? Man, there has to be a pattern somewhere Thanks, Tony You be the judge (this is for ATL): 11 Coldest (back to 1879-80) KATL Winters’ ENSO/PDO/NAO/AO Winter……DJF Temp Anom…ENSO……..PDO………NAO….…AO 1) 1976-7……….…..-7.6…………WEN…....+1.5………..-1.7………..-1.8 2) 1977-8…………...-6.2…………WEN…….+0.7……….-1.1………..-0.5 3) 1904-5……………-5.8………...WEN…….+1.3……….+0.8……….+0.8 4) 1962-3……………-5.8…………WLN……..+0.0……….-1.6………..-0.7 5) 1935-6……………-5.7………….NP………+1.5………-2.0………..-2.4 6) 1963-4……………-5.7…………WEN…….+0.4………-1.6………..-0.7 7) 1939-40………….-5.5…………WEN……..+1.7……...-1.9………..-1.9 8) 1901-2…………...-5.4………….NN………+1.5………-0.7………..-0.5 9) 2009-10………….-4.4…………SEN……..+0.1……..-2.9…………-2.6 10) 1885-6………….-4.3…………WEN……..+0.8……..-0.6…………N/A 11) 1969-70…….…..-4.1………….WEN……..+1.2…….-1.1…………-1.8 Findings: A very impressive 7 of the 11 coldest (of the 133 winters) and 3 of the 4 coldest were weak Nino’s. Only about 1 in 8 winters (back to 1879-80) was a weak Nino. So, only about 1-2 of the 11 coldest would be the “expected value” if there were no bias of weak Nino’s toward either warm or cold. The DJF PDO was positive for all 11 (1962-3 was barely above zero). The DJF NAO was -0.6 or more negative for all but one, 1904-5. The DJF AO was -0.5 or more negative for all but one, 1904-5. (I couldn’t find the AO for 1885-6.) Based on the above stats, I’m fully aware that one can make the argument that it was the +PDO/-NAO/-AO combo that was a big reason for the cold for all but 1904-5. However, one could make the argument that the weak Nino phase, itself, also had a major influence. I’ll now explain: I looked at all winters back to 1879-80 and found 26 that had the +PDO/-NAO/-AO combo, including the 9 noted above from the 11 coldest. A total of 6 of those 26 were weak Nino’s. An impressive 5 of those 6 weak Nino’s (83%) were within the 11 coldest. OTOH, 20 of those 26 +PDO/-NAO/-AO winters were NOT weak Nino’s. Only 4 of those 20 that were +PDO/-NAO/-AO and that weren’t weak Nino’s (20%) were within the 11 coldest. Furthermore, 10 of the 26 were moderate to strong Nino’s. Of those 10 mod. to strong Nino’s with +PDO/-NAO/-AO, only one of the 10 (10%) (2009-10) was within the 11 coldest. So, to summarize regarding +PDO/-NAO/-AO winters since 1879-80: - A whopping 83% of the weak Nino’s were in the 11 coldest - Only 10% of the mod. to strong Nino’s were in the 11 coldest - Only 20% of all winters that weren’t weak Nino’s were in the 11 coldest - 40% of weak Nino’s and 47% of moderate to strong Nino’s since 1899-1900 were +PDO/-NAO/-AO….i.e., fairly similar %’s. Yet, weak Nino’s were much colder on average than moderate to strong Nino’s as a whole. (MEN’s/SEN’s that didn’t have +PDO, -NAO, and –AO: 1902-3, 1905-6, 1965-6, 1972-3, 1982-3, 1987-8, 1991-2, 1994-5, and 2006-7) - Conclusion: The weak Nino phase, itself, has a strong cold tendency for Atlanta independent of the cold tendency resulting from +PDO/-NAO/-AO. The moderate to strong Nino phase lacks this independent strong cold tendency. Edit: weak Ninos following Ninas have averaged colder than those that don't follow Ninas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I sure hope this winter doesn't flop as much as Duke does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I sure hope this winter doesn't flop as much as Duke does. That's called good coaching: Get in the path of the stampeding offensive player and take the punishment for the reward of the opponent's turnover. Just because Duke is the best at taking the charge, doesn't mean they are flopping. K teaches the mindset needed to take that punishment. Other coaches should focus more on defensive skills as well. There's more to the beauty of the game of basketball besides offense. Bring it, UNC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Charging and flopping are not the same thing. Duke flops...a lot. They even flop on offense to get foul calls. I guess it's also okay to set moving screens and hand check as well. Refs can't call them all. And then K just yells and curses at them if he does to intimidate them. They have done more to take the beauty OUT of the game than anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Anybody notice the gas prices jump 10-15 cents the last couple of days? They have around here in the Greenville,SC .I guess now that the election is over..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Anybody notice the gas prices jump 10-15 cents the last couple of days? They have around here in the Greenville,SC .I guess now that the election is over..... The folks in the NE are now able to buy gas and therefore the prices will going up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Comparing katrina to sandy in this way is wrong. Thousands of people died in katrina, bodies were floating in the streets for days. There was standing water in metro new orleans for many days as well. The comparison is partisan and has no place in the southeast forum. I really wish the mods would crack down on political posts in this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I didn't post a political post but just agreed on what someone said, But anywho I thought this was a banter thread, post whatever whenever kinda thing? Now if this was in a weather thread i would agree MariettaWx!!! Just bring on some winter weather, can we all agree on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Comparing katrina to sandy in this way is wrong. Thousands of people died in katrina, bodies were floating in the streets for days. There was standing water in metro new orleans for many days as well. The comparison is partisan and has no place in the southeast forum. I really wish the mods would crack down on political posts in this forum. I wasn't comparing the storms just the way they were covered or not.You are right many lost everything including thier life in Katrina but we know hardly anything out what going on in the northeast ,or West Virginia crippling snowstorm and HWY 12 washed out yet again.2005 was a record setting hurricane going into the Greek Alphabet but you only hear about Katrina. Enough on that topic .I'm ready for cold and snow.Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Stay off the Big Frost...Go Duke, flop or charge get used to it, theyve been doing it for 15+ years. Go Noles! Bring on winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The folks in the NE are now able to buy gas and therefore the prices will going up... Damn Yankees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Damn Yankees Indeed. more cheaper gas for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Tony, 1) Thre have been 16 weak Nino fall/winters in ~140 years by my count. That is ~1 in 9 winters. Considering that there are eight different ENSO phases in my system of classifying, 1 in 9 is about par. 2) Six of the 16 were within back to back. 3) They have been more frequent during -PDO regimes vs. +PDO regimes. I'm talking regimes, not DJF, itself. My theory is that this is due to -PDO regimes reducing the freq. of moderate to strong Ninos. Some of the Ninos that would have gone on to be mod. or strong end up being only weak. So, lower freq. of mod to strong Ninos but higher freq. for weak Ninos during -PDO regimes. We had no weak Ninos between 1977-8 and 2004-5. The PDO regime was largely + during that period. 4) I haven't analyzed correlations of sunspot cycles with weak Ninos. 4) There are pretty good monthly Nino 3.4 SST anom. records back to 1871. Also, JMA SST anom.'s go back to 1868. These help to verify 3.4 due to a decent correlation. Finally, there's monthly SOI data back to 1876, which also helps to veriify. Thanks, Larry! You are the man! I've enjoyed the Enso thread with your play by play, and I'm wanting to see patterns. Not an unhealthy conspiracy thing... just patterns...you know Keys to unlock the inscrutable Madame Nature. Thanks for your time....now back to saving the weak Nino...I didn't want to take you away from your important duties. Who knows when we get another Nina to follow with a weak Nino? And my sledding health relies on it!! Well, possibly.............Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 no more politics on the weather side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 no more politics on the weather side Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Charging and flopping are not the same thing. Duke flops...a lot. They even flop on offense to get foul calls. I guess it's also okay to set moving screens and hand check as well. Refs can't call them all. And then K just yells and curses at them if he does to intimidate them. They have done more to take the beauty OUT of the game than anyone else. Im not a duke fan but if the refs call it then i would do it too. It happens in the nba to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Im not a duke fan but if the refs call it then i would do it too. It happens in the nba to Not anymore. The NBA started calling techs for players flopping this year. That's why Kentucky's coach said that if it was the NBA the Duke players would be suspended. Even some NBA players said something last year about Duke players flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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