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November 2012 Obs/Discussion Thread


WilkesboroDude

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Well our forecast here is for rain with a low of 37 degrees. It is 30 degrees and cloudy. Mmmm we might have snow instead of rain tonight. Ground is cold to. With the high of only 45 and the low in the teens, anything that falls will stick.

Blacksburg and Greenville both are saying areas that are 29-32 may see freezing drizzle...maybe we will see a short fuse freezing rain advisory in the morning if temps don't rise with increasing cloud cover...and if precip overcomes the dry air.

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Near term /through today/...

as of 1100 PM Wednesday...

Main concern overnight is chance for -fzra in the northwest NC

mountains...mainly the higher elevations. There are several

parameters that really do not appear to come together for any

meaningful precipitation...hence much concern for winter weather problems.

Temperatures are below freezing at elevations above 3000 feet...but

extensive middle/high cloud cover in advance of the short wave

lifting NE out of Georgia should put a damper on much additional

cooling. Dewpoints are only a few degrees below temperatures...which is

also a good sign. The bigger question...however...is whether or

not any precipitation will even make it up into this region. GFS/European model (ecmwf) do

spread some very light precipitation into northwest NC...but mostly after low-

level thickness and surface temperatures rise above freezing precipitation concerns.

Latest local WRF shows very little precipitation making it north of the

SC/NC border until after 12z...then spreading mostly toward rdu

and not into the rnk County Warning Area. Will leave ongoing weather/pop forecast as is

with 20 probability of precipitation for -ra/-fzra northwest NC late tonight/early Thursday. No need

for any west-southwest/Special Weather Statement at this point. As noted...confidence in anything

occurring at all is low.

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Down to 31 last night and another frost.I was watching Austin Caviness on WXII this mornig .He was giving forecast and was saying normal high now is 62 .We will be colder than that yet again today .I wondering what our average high and low are for this month so far ? Other than this past weekend It seems chilly over all for November.

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The precip shield seems to be stretching farther north and west than it has in previous runs. The trend is our friend? Wait...that sounds like a winter saying...

The trend on the 18Z runs wasn't quite good enough to bring the rain to north Hickory: Nothing in the rain bucket this morning, but nice and cool at 37. I didn't stay up to see the 00Z runs, but it doesn't really matter after the fact whatever they were projecting. I hope it will remain cool and cloudy today.

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Woke up about 3:30am to the sound of thunder,heavy rain and the temp was 42. It's still sprinkling wub.png

Ok, then, I'm calling off the Moles. Got to keep them charged up for winter :) I got just less the 3/4's for the 2 days, which is way over what I was expecting! And now it's cloudy and cool...I love me a good cad! T

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Mackall Army Airfield is reporting Light rain and snow but I don't trust the accuracy of that. Trying to get the current analyzed partials which appear to be no good right now of course.

Woke up at 4:30am this morning and saw some sleet pellets mixed with rain for about 20 minutes. Temps fell quickly from 37 degrees to 34 degrees. Just when I thought things were going to get interesting, it was over. Oh well, just a warm-up for winter.

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