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November 2012 Obs/Discussion Thread


WilkesboroDude

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System is quite under-performing so far, east of the mountains. I've gotten .10 inch in the bucket so far, and half of that came this morning. Radar looks quite ragged in nature. Maybe I can squeeze a few more tenths out of this system by morning, but I'm not too confident.

Well, Tony's moles must be heading north for the winter, because I netted a robust 0.55 inch of rain out of the system. That was quite a bit more than I was expecting when I went to bed. I sure needed the rainfall, and I'll take any more that I can get over this next week. October was dry, and November has been up to this point.

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Well, Tony's moles must be heading north for the winter, because I netted a robust 0.55 inch of rain out of the system. That was quite a bit more than I was expecting when I went to bed. I sure needed the rainfall, and I'll take any more that I can get over this next week. October was dry, and November has been up to this point.

Same here in my area.It been dry but this was welcomed rain.One thing i've noticed we now have a chance of rain on Thurs and again ,as by Van Denton last night ,a good shot of rain sun -mon time frame.

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Well, Tony's moles must be heading north for the winter, because I netted a robust 0.55 inch of rain out of the system. That was quite a bit more than I was expecting when I went to bed. I sure needed the rainfall, and I'll take any more that I can get over this next week. October was dry, and November has been up to this point.

Mole Mojo for everybody!! :) I have to confess that due to surface tension, old eyes, and a weak flashlight, I over sold my total. I only got .5 yesterday, but it was raining or drizzling from 1pm to after midnight, so it was a soaking rain. Much appreciated. Still hoping for more with the cad, and stalled front, but right now it is sunny and 51, and, actually, not bad for early Nov., watching the leaves cascade down, weather :) T

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Mole Mojo for everybody!! :) I have to confess that due to surface tension, old eyes, and a weak flashlight, I over sold my total. I only got .5 yesterday, but it was raining or drizzling from 1pm to after midnight, so it was a soaking rain. Much appreciated. Still hoping for more with the cad, and stalled front, but right now it is sunny and 51, and, actually, not bad for early Nov., watching the leaves cascade down, weather :) T

Mole mojo working here in marietta as well. They contributed .40 to mby monthly total.

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Mole Mojo for everybody!! smile.png I have to confess that due to surface tension, old eyes, and a weak flashlight, I over sold my total. I only got .5 yesterday, but it was raining or drizzling from 1pm to after midnight, so it was a soaking rain. Much appreciated. Still hoping for more with the cad, and stalled front, but right now it is sunny and 51, and, actually, not bad for early Nov., watching the leaves cascade down, weather smile.png T

CAE has picked up a trace :lol::(

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CAE has picked up a trace laugh.pngsad.png

Yeah, I'm working on that, darlin', lol. The Moles are pretty scared of the portals :) I'll leave the mojo up for a few days to see if we can't get you some.

It was cool this afternoon, and I got a fire going late. Low 40's, 42 at 2am, just rained, more to come, winter ahead, possibilities...not bad :) T

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Sure feels like winter out there this morning with temps in the low to mid 40s (after a low of 38.7) and winds out of the NE at 15 to 25mph. With so much cloud cover, we might not get out of the 40s but there is some sun breaking through so if we do, it will just be barely probably...maybe 50 to 52. GFS is keeping parts of nc ga/sc in the 40s. Given the precip tomorrow, it will be another day either in the 40s or near 50 over ne ga/sc.

Speaking of which, the 06z and 12z nam and 06z gfs are producing quite a bit of rain..from extreme eastern ga to sc..especially sc...as much as 2 plus inches...very very sharp cutoff though. The nam is further east while the gfs is a bit further west and needless to say I sure hope it is centered a bit further west because my area is in desperate need of rain. The lakes and creeks are pathetic.

fwiw, latest rap shows good rains over ga/further west. I don't take too much stock in it though..it's changes with every run.

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NWS banking on precip not getting this far north...just a 30% snow/rain.

Greenville...

Trends in 06z to 12z GFS/NAM and 03z to 09z sref have all been to

back off precipitation chances in the northern mountains where temperatures will drop below

freezing. Cloud cover overnight will play a big part in keeping temperatures

from dropping too far below freezing so surfaces may not be able to

cool enough to allow ice formation. Probability of precipitation are only in chance range in

this area so a Freezing Rain Advisory is not warranted at this time.

However...will keep it in the public forecast and severe weather potential statement and also advise

evening shift.

Blacksburg...

The European model (ecmwf) remains the farthest north and prints out one-quarter inch late tonight/Thursday morning over the NC foothills/Piedmont in our County Warning Area.Cannot rule it out and have a couple hours across the high country of freezing rain. Amounts though should be a trace. Went ahead and mentioned this small threat in the severe weather potential statement. Will have to monitor the temperature trends/precipitation trends overnight though.

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28.6 my way this morning .Coldest so far.

Big frosty have you noticed at our local airport ,Mt Airy ,the tempuratures is always warmer than all the rest on WXII ,FOX 8?

Yes it's been that way for a few years i think? I've heard Van Denton mention it before something wrong up there with the reporting! I think they must have it near something that puts out a little heat? I wish somebody would tell them, so they can put it in a proper place...

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18Z NAM came in pretty wet for NC & SC for overnight and tomorrow morning:

18znamp24_SE024.gif

So, did the 18Z GFS:

18zgfsp24030.gif

The precip shield seems to be stretching farther north and west than it has in previous runs. The trend is our friend? Wait...that sounds like a winter saying...

Can we get a sleet pellet or two here in the foothills? If precip makes it this far north... sitting at 37.7 and dp 29

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