clueless Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Truth Ian, always accommodating to those of us out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 screw zone and warmth sets up for New England, perfect for the mid-atlantic peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 ARW members mostly go bonkers and drop the southern SW into the Gulf. That would mean the storm a lot more juiced and better organized further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It actually starts Wednesday evening so about 4 days away from either rain/heavy snow or nothing is kinda a difference. Start caring 36 to 48 hours out from the event. This far out, most details can change more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Regardless if it's rain or snow...we weren't seeing these types of storms last year in Oct/Nov....I know the jury is out on pattern recognition but I'd rather have this Most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Start caring 36 to 48 hours out from the event. This far out, most details can change more than once. Great post, Capt Obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 18z Gfs is basically euro track and the qpf shifted well west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 18z Gfs is basically euro track and the qpf shifted well west of 12z 3-4" snow per goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 3-4" snow per goofus Look out for that Eastern PA blizzard 12"+ lol wtf http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnow108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 GFS seems to be trending colder each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Great post, Capt Obvious Massage the Vagus nerve on the side of your neck. It helps with anger management. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 GFS seems to be trending colder each run Euro temps are probably more right but this run is plenty cold. The high position is still pretty iffy for the coastal plain tho. Still, ideal 500 low location and strong VV remain evident on many runs so its not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro temps are probably more right but this run is plenty cold. The high position is still pretty iffy for the coastal plain tho. Still, ideal 500 low location and strong VV remain evident on many runs so its not out of the question. When you keep your hopes and expectations low (mine is to just see flakes) it won't take much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro temps are probably more right but this run is plenty cold. The high position is still pretty iffy for the coastal plain tho. Still, ideal 500 low location and strong VV remain evident on many runs so its not out of the question. According to that GFS snow map linked a couple posts prior, the coastal plain is pretty much the only ones to receive any snow. What am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 A chance of seeing a flake on November 7 is gravy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 According to that GFS snow map linked a couple posts prior, the coastal plain is pretty much the only ones to receive any snow. What am I missing? ?? GFS snow map shows 3-4 inches for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 According to that GFS snow map linked a couple posts prior, the coastal plain is pretty much the only ones to receive any snow. What am I missing? I was saying in general not this run specifically tho that max area also gets solid vertical velocities in the backside band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I think it was either Margisity or the new longrange guy at Accuwx that said a few weeks ago he expected a storm track similar to what is depicted with this storm as the predominant storm track this winter; I remember Fozz and I questioning how anyone could predict that far in advance I really love snow with crow so I'm happy to be eating both this winter if it means we get to follow storms like this one for the next 3-4 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 ?? GFS snow map shows 3-4 inches for DC DC is in the coastal plain. That GFS snow map basically has no snow west of the Blue Ridge. Unless my eyes are really failing me, I see 1" in DC according to that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 OK, I'll be the first to mention it the 18Z NAM seems poised to suck this baby due north up the coast (and there seems to be some cold air available too) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F03%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=Loop+All&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=11%2F03%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=850_temp_ht&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 FYI DC got rocked on Nov 11, 1987 so it *can* happen. My birthday...and what a birthday present this would be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 When you keep your hopes and expectations low (mine is to just see flakes) it won't take much Amen to this! First week of November in this area, it would be impressive enough to see a few flakes or a coating. Of course, the event is still looking quite a bit more interesting and if we "luck out" with a 1987 Veteran's Day type of snow amount I sure won't complain! But in no way expecting that kind of thing. Right now, it's just nice to see some coastals developing, keeping it active. I hope that bodes well for the winter. Last year, after the late October event that hammered New England, there were really no other East Coast storms to speak of (rain or snow) the rest of the season...until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 According to that GFS snow map linked a couple posts prior, the coastal plain is pretty much the only ones to receive any snow. What am I missing? Precip. At least on the GFS. However, it does keep trending better. Also, if you look at the earlier versions of those same maps, you'll see snow back here. I guess it melts it. I don't think it's good to put much faith in those things right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro temps are probably more right but this run is plenty cold. The high position is still pretty iffy for the coastal plain tho. Still, ideal 500 low location and strong VV remain evident on many runs so its not out of the question. Surface temps are still a little warm (35 or so) and the time of day not so good but if it precips hard enough it could support some flakes. It certainly has come towards the euro. Like you, I'm not enamored with the high position but do think there is a good chance I'll be doing a CWG discussion either tomorrow or Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Weren't both the GFS and EURO ensembles east of their operational models for last weeks storm? They both seem to be a good deal east of their ops again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Amen to this! First week of November in this area, it would be impressive enough to see a few flakes or a coating. Of course, the event is still looking quite a bit more interesting and if we "luck out" with a 1987 Veteran's Day type of snow amount I sure won't complain! But in no way expecting that kind of thing. Right now, it's just nice to see some coastals developing, keeping it active. I hope that bodes well for the winter. Last year, after the late October event that hammered New England, there were really no other East Coast storms to speak of (rain or snow) the rest of the season...until April. The October event hammered parts of this area, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Precip. At least on the GFS. However, it does keep trending better. Also, if you look at the earlier versions of those same maps, you'll see snow back here. I guess it melts it. I don't think it's good to put much faith in those things right now. Let's just say I'm not getting out my snow boots just yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Surface temps are still a little warm (35 or so) and the time of day not so good but if it precips hard enough it could support some flakes. It certainly has come towards the euro. Like you, I'm not enamored with the high position but do think there is a good chance I'll be doing a CWG discussion either tomorrow or Monday. Most of the precip on the Euro falls from 00utc-12utc Thursday . Thats 7pm to 7am, which is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Euro temps are probably more right but this run is plenty cold. The high position is still pretty iffy for the coastal plain tho. Still, ideal 500 low location and strong VV remain evident on many runs so its not out of the question. Of course you want both to have a good setup, but if I had my choice between high position and cold air vs a good h5 low and track, for our area I will take the H5 setup. Its hard to get more then a marginal event with a bad h5 track in this area but we can sometimes get a nice dynamically driven event if you have a good h5 setup. Besides...a dynamic storm is more interesting even if the end result is the same amount of snow, I would take 3" from a powerful storm over 3" on the front side of some overrunning from a weak system or an H5 that goes north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 4, 2012 Share Posted November 4, 2012 Of course you want both to have a good setup, but if I had my choice between high position and cold air vs a good h5 low and track, for our area I will take the H5 setup. Its hard to get more then a marginal event with a bad h5 track in this area but we can sometimes get a nice dynamically driven event if you have a good h5 setup. Besides...a dynamic storm is more interesting even if the end result is the same amount of snow, I would take 3" from a powerful storm over 3" on the front side of some overrunning from a weak system or an H5 that goes north of us. Yeah I agree. It's just so early we need all the help we can get at least around me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.