aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I remember early 09-10 winter the NAM would lock in early and never waiver...seems like to me every year a model just has a feel for the atmosphere and tends to lock in on a solution earlier than others...perhaps this year it's the euro with this current pattern or perhaps I'm a rose colored glasses wearing weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Is that snow or rain Ian/Zwyts? And 2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Backside is rippin this run.. good snow to 95. How are 850mb temps looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Is that snow or rain Ian/Zwyts? And 2"? ??...yes....2" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Is that snow or rain Ian/Zwyts? And 2"? 4-8" max snow zone maybe just west of DC and west but not all the way to W md.. basically trix/hgr etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 4-8" max snow zone maybe just west of DC and west but not all the way to W md.. basically trix/hgr etc. I feel some places would get a bit more at good elevation, I'm out at the store so haven't been looking, anything for bwi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 4-8" max snow zone maybe just west of DC and west but not all the way to W md.. basically trix/hgr etc. Either the EURO is smoking the good stuff or the other models are just clueless. I hope 0Z sheds some light cause this is making things hard to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Heavy snow still to the west? Or is there a sharp cutoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 ??...yes....2" QPF Ian said 1.5 andyou said 2... was clarifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 yeah matt's qpf is better than mine was looking at 24 hour totals for some reason but snow is right main diff on snow is the heaviest axis of precip doesnt make it quite as far west into the previous jackpot areas the run is wetter overall tho than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The temps at 850 and 925 are borderline and you will need extreme VVs. That coldest air is well depicted where strongest VVs are. Still, that looks like a 33F paste job for 6 or more hrs especially with some elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I wouldn't mind a simple 2-3 inches... hell, 1 to 2 would be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 yeah matt's qpf is better than mine was looking at 24 hour totals for some reason but snow is right main diff on snow is the heaviest axis of precip doesnt make it quite as far west into the previous jackpot areas the run is wetter overall tho than 0z Slower allowed it to get stronger as it passed us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 4-8" max snow zone maybe just west of DC and west but not all the way to W md.. basically trix/hgr etc. yes....Immediate DC metro gets ~1-1.5 QPF with 850 Temps below 0....BL, I don't know..2M temps are above 32, but I imagine like usual with heavy precip they will be 32-34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Ian said 1.5 andyou said 2... was clarifying 2"+ actually hugs most of the state line mentioned earlier. ping of 3" near SE VA and off DE. whole area 1.5"+ except ne md and near hgr and west 1"+. sharp cutoff west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Either the EURO is smoking the good stuff or the other models are just clueless. I hope 0Z sheds some light cause this is making things hard to forecast. LOL. It's only Saturday today and we're talking about a Thursday storm. What are your expectations about how far in advance one should be able to nail down a forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 LOL. It's only Saturday today and we're talking about a Thursday storm. What are your expectations about how far in advance one should be able to nail down a forecast? It actually starts Wednesday evening so about 4 days away from either rain/heavy snow or nothing is kinda a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 We aren't getting any snow from this. Unpopular post attention whore in the hizzay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Basically you are going to have to RIP to get snow from this, but I suppose it is possible some is possible if you can really get on the comma head as it pivots NW. The problem is that the further NW it gets, the warmer aloft it gets. The further east, and the potential for less VV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Unpopular post attention whore in the hizzay climo is significantly against us, though it can snow. this kinda looks like an event where we should hope it starts and ends as snow...that would be an accomplishment in the dc-bmore corridor. it needs to snow soon, though...the last 2 winters have been cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It actually starts Wednesday evening so about 4 days away from either rain/heavy snow or nothing is kinda a difference. ...and that's the same spread of different scenarios presented by models for most of our winter storms 4+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Regardless if it's rain or snow...we weren't seeing these types of storms last year in Oct/Nov....I know the jury is out on pattern recognition but I'd rather have this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I wouldn't mind a simple 2-3 inches... hell, 1 to 2 would be fine did we even get a 2" snowstorm last year? i don't even remember if we did. i would gladly take a couple inches of snow and call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 3" of snow would eclipse the entire 11-12 total imby. 120hr 850's when the center is se of the jersey coast. Looks better than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro Jackpo= KHGR. Not that surface temps are marginal though. This is 3 hr snowfall 114-117 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looks like a visit with some old friends in mt airy is in order next week. No way I'm missing decent accum snow if I only have to travel 30 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Looks like a visit with some old friends in mt airy is in order next week. No way I'm missing decent accum snow if I only have to travel 30 miles or so. Thurmount and south mountain are even better. Hagerstown where I work could not be in a better spot on this run. It is at the Pivot point of the deform band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 That weenie snow map looks about right. It's a narrow margin for snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 That weenie snow map looks about right. It's a narrow margin for snow on this run. Well...I certainly wouldn't mind seeing that map be close to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Forgot to look at end of run and now back to phone only. How does the warm-up look? Transient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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