Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Does anyone think this threat is legitimate? It's getting into the mid-range now. However, Euro is still bearish and is warm with temps. It seems the best outcome we can hope for is rain to snow... Storm is certainly legit... tho I wouldn't expect a snowstorm in Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Computer modeling looks to be in agreement, bad solution for storm ravaged coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Storm is certainly legit... tho I wouldn't expect a snowstorm in Cape May. Agree, It looks like a real wind and tide threat for NJ into NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Computer modeling is outstanding imo. To think that either model can occasionally hit pretty close at 5+ days is remarkable. With that being said, some things are easier to predict than others. A miller a with blocking is way easier that a miller b with no blocking. We saw a ton of phase events last year and the models were all over for days. Tiny differences in timing mean huge swings in solutions downstream. People (weenies) should try to think for themselves anyway. Use models as tools to decide what you think is most likely and not using any one solution as an end all be all. I think the gfs can kick the euro's butt sometimes for sure but the euro does seem pretty good at picking out miller A's. It can be terrible with phased progressive events. Almost always shows a perfect hit at day 6 or so but as soon as I see that I know we're fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Agree, It looks like a real wind and tide threat for NJ into NY. With compromised barrier beaches, scoured out coastal shelf bottoms, much bigger threat than normal, thankfully we are in between moon cycles. getting lots of reports from locals at the ocean in RI that levels are still high, odd situation. In case you did not hear, tremendous damage in SRI, similar to Hurricane Carol. Fishing is kaput too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 UKMET looks likely to develop the low further south at 72 hours...but I am not sure where to get UKMET images past 72 hours so hard to say for sure. I think for our area its not so much a matter of the exact surface track being east vs west as much as it is an issue of how far south the surface low begins to develop and deepen. The UKMET and Euro have been showing a hit for our area because they both begin to develop the storm over the southeast and bring it up as a miller a system all the way. The GGEM and GFS have more of a late development or almost miller b look to them. If the low does not beging to really get going and have an expansive precip field until it is already north of the VA capes...its probably too late for us. We need the southeast development the UK and EC show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's called selective memory. Without doubt the euro wins in the verification game over the long haul but the verification scores are not that different. In this case I suspect the euro is more right than the earlier GFS runs but the new GFS has moved in that direction and may not have a bad solution. Neither is good for up towards NYC...too much wind. Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 UKMET looks likely to develop the low further south at 72 hours...but I am not sure where to get UKMET images past 72 hours so hard to say for sure. I think for our area its not so much a matter of the exact surface track being east vs west as much as it is an issue of how far south the surface low begins to develop and deepen. The UKMET and Euro have been showing a hit for our area because they both begin to develop the storm over the southeast and bring it up as a miller a system all the way. The GGEM and GFS have more of a late development or almost miller b look to them. If the low does not beging to really get going and have an expansive precip field until it is already north of the VA capes...its probably too late for us. We need the southeast development the UK and EC show. Here you go. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ukmet&run=12&stn=PNM&hh=000&map=na〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Canadian has like a 970 low off Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Here you go. http://meteocentre.c...&map=na〈=en Thanks...lost all my links when my computer crashed...have recovered most of them but somehow never found the UKMET site that goes past 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Canadian has like a 970 low off Jersey It starts the system initially really far east then cuts it back. I find it unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Thanks...lost all my links when my computer crashed...have recovered most of them but somehow never found the UKMET site that goes past 72. No problem, that site has some pretty good maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It starts the system initially really far east then cuts it back. I find it unlikely. Maybe, maybe not. The pattern isn't that dissimilar to Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Canadian has like a 970 low off Jersey Yea, moster storm but very minimal impact on our region. It delays development until off the mid atlantic coast then really bombs out but a little too late to impact us. UKMET appears to have shifted east also and probably misses our area. Have to see if the EC holds with a further south development and west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Trough is tilted almost sideways on those maps. I never would have believed that sandy could make a hard left so i believe it's possible to take that track. Not likely but possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Maybe, maybe not. The pattern isn't that dissimilar to Sandy. 965 bomb seems a little suspect. It does almost look like the Sandy setup for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The 1039 hp is suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 965 bomb seems a little suspect. It does almost look like the Sandy setup for sure. So if the pattern is similar to Sandy, then why do you belive the model depiction is suspect? You seem to contradict yourself...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 We aren't getting any snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro is a little slower with the phase and deepening than 0z so far. Still might end up similar. Sub 1000mb low east of NC/SC border 12z Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Yeah, everything looks about 6 hours slower so the low is going to be a bit east it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 0z thurs ~988 off delmarva. low center is a bit east but the precip west of the low is more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 0z thurs 988 off delmarva. low center is a bit east but the precip west of the low is more intense. Poor NJ gets creamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Backside is rippin this run.. good snow to 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Backside is rippin this run.. good snow to 95. Poor phineas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 980is SE of NJ 12z thurs. deform over leesburg with heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 980is SE of NJ 12z thurs. deform over leesburg with heavy snow. Truth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 4-8" contour comes just about to DC this run. Maybe a smidge more next panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 nice 1"+ qpf max hugging the VA/MD lines and out each side a good way. Bullseye DC area with 1.5"+ toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12z Euro is 2"+ QPF for NVA/Immediate DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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