midatlanticweather Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 HM posted on FB - https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=545165465497167&set=a.203162496364134.57701.135790633101321&type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 HM posted on FB - https://www.facebook...&type=1 Harrisonburg jackpot. Nice hit up the entire Shenandoah Valley though. Euro is holding its ground and I think attention needs to paid after its performance with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 snow mentioned in my forecast Tuesday Night A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday A chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 44. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Interesting the Euro bullseyed almost the same spot at 0z tho the totals increased everywhere. One little 12-18" dot right near Winchester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12Z GFS is still east of the euro but seems to have come west of it earlier run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Doesn't GFS seem more aligned with climo? Euro has accumulating snow down to N. Central NC...I just can't see that. It has Frederick in 4-8" also unlikely for early Nov. Maybe I just don't want it to snow cause I'll be driving down I-81 to see the Noles kick my Hokies tail everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's weird how similar the evolution near the coast is to Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 12Z GFS is still east of the euro but seems to have come west of it earlier run. It's pretty sad that the EURO kicks the GFS around on a daily bases. We may as well just stop wasting government money on the GFS and just use the EURO long range and still use the NAM short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 maeu already throwing around blizzard warning talk like the hypester he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's pretty sad that the EURO kicks the GFS around on a daily bases. We may as well just stop wasting government money on the GFS and just use the EURO long range and still use the NAM short range. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's pretty sad that the EURO kicks the GFS around on a daily bases. We may as well just stop wasting government money on the GFS and just use the EURO long range and still use the NAM short range. It doesn't always kick the GFS's butt, no one model is good enough to use in the longer range and the gfs and the other models along with the ensembles from all the models offer the best approach to forecast. Lest you forget how sometimes the euro can be massively wrong, here's an example when the euro was forecasting a significant storm and the gfs wasn't, the latter was right. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/another-iffy-snow-threat-in-the-offing/2012/02/14/gIQA6yHqDR_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's pretty sad that the EURO kicks the GFS around on a daily bases. We may as well just stop wasting government money on the GFS and just use the EURO long range and still use the NAM short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I can't see the maps that well on my phone. Any change in strength with the hp to the n on the latest gfs? Still slides east the same from what I can see but I can't tell of if the strength is any different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I can't see the maps that well on my phone. Any change in strength with the hp to the n on the latest gfs? Still slides east the same from what I can see but I can't tell of if the strength is any different. It is more of a phased solution a little too far east for us but much closer to the euro than the previous run. I think something wrapped up is correct but whether it gets us or not is still up in the air. This is a tougher call than Sandy as the blocking is not as defined so you are more susceptible to timing issues between the various waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It doesn't always kick the GFS's butt, no one model is good enough to use in the longer range and the gfs and the other models along with the ensembles from all the models offer the best approach to forecast. Lest you forget how sometimes the euro can be massively wrong, here's an example when the euro was forecasting a significant storm and the gfs wasn't, the latter was right. http://www.washingto....html#pagebreak I'd say the EURO on most occasions is more right than wrong. There are a few times when the GFS out did the EURO but, it is not as often as the other way around. Ok don't get rid of the GFS but, geez improve it. We are only 96 hrs out from this next storm as the GFS still can't figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Where were these charts when the GFS beat the euro with Debbie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Where were these charts when the GFS beat the euro with Debbie? It's called selective memory. Without doubt the euro wins in the verification game over the long haul but the verification scores are not that different. In this case I suspect the euro is more right than the earlier GFS runs but the new GFS has moved in that direction and may not have a bad solution. Neither is good for up towards NYC...too much wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Does anyone think this threat is legitimate? It's getting into the mid-range now. However, Euro is still bearish and is warm with temps. It seems the best outcome we can hope for is rain to snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Does anyone think this threat is legitimate? It's getting into the mid-range now. However, Euro is still bearish and is warm with temps. It seems the best outcome we can hope for is rain to snow... Don't worry JB has it all worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It's called selective memory. Without doubt the euro wins in the verification game over the long haul but the verification scores are not that different. In this case I suspect the euro is more right than the earlier GFS runs but the new GFS has moved in that direction and may not have a bad solution. Neither is good for up towards NYC...too much wind. I always view deterministic models as something to take with a grain of salt beyond day 6 and even day 5. So IMHO...I don't really care what deterministic runs are showing at day 7 or 8. I'll keep those runs in mind, but look more towards ensemble guidance and see how those solutions look. When we get to within 96 hrs and both models start to converge on a solution, that's fine by me. I don't need to know that the euro had it at day 8 or whenever it was. Lord knows the day 8 euro op has had some clown solutions too. Where the euro seems to be lethal, are the details within 72-96 hrs. I do think it's pretty good in that range as far as deterministic guidance goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'd say the EURO on most occasions is more right than wrong. There are a few times when the GFS out did the EURO but, it is not as often as the other way around. Ok don't get rid of the GFS but, geez improve it. We are only 96 hrs out from this next storm as the GFS still can't figure it out. You don't think they're CONSTANTLY trying to improve it? There's only so much you can do, especially with the time, money and computing power restrictions placed on the folks who work on the GFS. Study up on what's behind the GFS and the Euro and then tell me what you think can realistically be done to improve the GFS with the restrictions on time, budget, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I always view deterministic models as something to take with a grain of salt beyond day 6 and even day 5. So IMHO...I don't really care what deterministic runs are showing at day 7 or 8. I'll keep those runs in mind, but look more towards ensemble guidance and see how those solutions look. When we get to within 96 hrs and both models start to converge on a solution, that's fine by me. I don't need to know that the euro had it at day 8 or whenever it was. Lord knows the day 8 euro op has had some clown solutions too. Where the euro seems to be lethal, are the details within 72-96 hrs. I do think it's pretty good in that range as far as deterministic guidance goes. Even within 96 hrs in complex situations, the euro can occasionally be pretty wrong so ensemble forecasting certainty still has plenty of merit. People, especially weenies, seem to have unrealistic expectations of deterministic model forecasts. Heck, if a model gets it right by 48 hours I'm a happy camper, that still gives most people time to take action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 You don't think they're CONSTANTLY trying to improve it? There's only so much you can do, especially with the time, money and computing power restrictions placed on the folks to work on the GFS. Study up on what's behind the GFS and the Euro and then tell me what you think can realistically be done to improve the GFS with the restrictions on time, budget, etc. I understand the time and money limitations, I just can't understand with todays technology how we don't have something better. Someday I guess. I am not thinking the EURO is 100% correct on this storm, I am just saying it had the right idea of a coastal before any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Even within 96 hrs in complex situations, the euro can occasionally be pretty wrong so ensemble forecasting certainty still has plenty of merit. People, especially weenies, seem to have unrealistic expectations of deterministic model forecasts. Heck, if a model gets it right by 48 hours I'm a happy camper, that still gives most people time to take action. Yeah even at 96 hrs we certainly have discrepancies and busts. But for a deterministic model, it seems like that day 3-4 is pretty good all things considered. But the euro had some busts this summer, even within 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I understand the time and money limitations, I just can't understand with todays technology how we don't have something better. Someday I guess. I am not thinking the EURO is 100% correct on this storm, I am just saying it had the right idea of a coastal before any model. Take some computer modeling classes. That oughta open your eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 DTK had a great disco about the resources being put into HIRES models and new variation schemes for our global models. The US continues to lead the way with modeling from what I can tell. There are more to models than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 You don't think they're CONSTANTLY trying to improve it? There's only so much you can do, especially with the time, money and computing power restrictions placed on the folks to work on the GFS. Study up on what's behind the GFS and the Euro and then tell me what you think can realistically be done to improve the GFS with the restrictions on time, budget, etc. DT explained the problem perfectly. "You can only shine up s*&@ to a certain point". I fear most of the GFS problems reside in the initialization scheme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 DT is an idiot. Sorry. I hope weenies realize they also would only be able to get their precious model twice a day if it were run like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 DT explained the problem perfectly. "You can only shine up s*&@ to a certain point". I fear most of the GFS problems reside in the initialization scheme. He's not the best source of info about the model and he is much too hard on the gfs, sometimes to his own detriment. DTK is the best source here on modeling and what the problems are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 DT explained the problem perfectly. "You can only shine up s*&@ to a certain point". I fear most of the GFS problems reside in the initialization scheme. When mets talk like that it mostly shows off they are kinda clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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