Ian Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 btw, i merged winterymix thread (or will in a sec) with the other thread. that one barely had any (or didnt) obs.. it's all about this storm too. no reason to split them. we can create a separate all obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 2, 2012 Share Posted November 2, 2012 Euro on wunderground starts everyone NW of DC off with a quick 1" thump, then changes to rain. Jackpot Davis, WV- Syracuse ,NY much like 11/15/95, but 850 temps aren't nearly as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Keep hearing it's such a good sign seeing noreasters already. Yeah ok let's get our noreasters in oct and nov. so when it really counts we get diddly squat. Hope this thing misses. Would rather have progressive pattern now transition to more amped phased pattern end of November and December. Much better shot of attaining snow That doesn't make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Euro on wunderground starts everyone NW of DC off with a quick 1" thump, then changes to rain. Jackpot Davis, WV- Syracuse ,NY much like 11/15/95, but 850 temps aren't nearly as cold. Actually, jackpot is Winchester area. Then also the NY/Canada border. Two little bullseyes of 8-12". Verbatim Davis is too far west for the max band looks like 3-4" in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 That doesn't make any sense. I don't know enough about long range for it to matter but I'm not sold the pattern now means much. I guess one of the better arguments is that the NAO has been mostly negative for a long while. I sorta wonder if we're due for a flip though. Then again, we do seem to be in a long term pattern like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 btw, i merged winterymix thread (or will in a sec) with the other thread. that one barely had any (or didnt) obs.. it's all about this storm too. no reason to split them. we can create a separate all obs thread. Thanks, Ian. Good move. The point of it all is that energetic lows are crawling up the baroclinic zone. We had nothing like it last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I know we hate snow to rain... but I consider Nov snow bonus snow... so an inch of snow to rain, while it sucks, is fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I know we hate snow to rain... but I consider Nov snow bonus snow... so an inch of snow to rain, while it sucks, is fine by me Dynamics will overcome bl issues AND it will manufacture its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 8-12 I would take it. To bad its only a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I know we hate snow to rain... but I consider Nov snow bonus snow... so an inch of snow to rain, while it sucks, is fine by me That's good since its locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The new euro...locked in 7 days out all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 i gotta unfollow this guy on twitter so i can still watch him on tv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 That's good since its locked in I'm leaning towards light rain changing to mod rain but getting lucky at the end with a changeover to light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The new euro...locked in 7 days out all winter But is it the model predicting the weather or controlling the weather?? Muah ha haaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I'm leaning towards light rain changing to mod rain but getting lucky at the end with a changeover to light rain. ppl have said it's a weak normal storm but the euro is a pretty deep nor'easter. maybe it's another big storm that will be well modeled. the last gfs and the euro look very alike. see if we can keep it going. i think it will snow locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 ppl have said it's a weak normal storm but the euro is a pretty deep nor'easter. maybe it's another big storm that will be well modeled. the last gfs and the euro look very alike. see if we can keep it going. i think it will snow locally. Actually, jackpot is Winchester area. Then also the NY/Canada border. Two little bullseyes of 8-12". Verbatim Davis is too far west for the max band looks like 3-4" in that area. I like these two posts, Ian. Here's to all of it being true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The main models have a great track. But it is way early. How many times has accumulating snow happened this early ? Maybe 4 or 5 times in 100 years ? Really going against climo on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 The main models have a great track. But it is way early. How many times has accumulating snow happened this early ? Maybe 4 or 5 times in 100 years ? Really going against climo on this one. I don't believe in atmospheric memory from today to February per se but I think given what we recently saw an anomalous storm is perhaps not as unlikely as it might normally be. The setup actually has some similarities I think. It's probably not a lock that the storm will track perfectly etc. Would likely be another elevation event as it appears now tho I would expect snow and probably significant snow if these solutions are anywhere close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 I think this storm will probably produce snow at a lower elevation than Sandy but not low enough at the population centers ie. Washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 ppl have said it's a weak normal storm but the euro is a pretty deep nor'easter. maybe it's another big storm that will be well modeled. the last gfs and the euro look very alike. see if we can keep it going. i think it will snow locally. I totally agree that it could snow locally . Especially up in N central md. I95 will seriously need some anti-climo anomalous assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Gfs whiff. Right where we want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Gfs whiff. Right where we want it. Especially with how it took Sandy way ots for so long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Gfs whiff. Right where we want it. If Euro holds, lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Sadly it shows a New England snowstorm. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 UKMET boom. 989 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Either way the high sliding east isn't a friend in the coastal plain. We need crazy dynamics and to like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Itsa me... rain! With 50-60 kt 850mb winds... ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Itsa me... rain! With 50-60 kt 850mb winds... ouch Accuweather euro snow map has 6-9" around HGR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 Accuweather euro snow map has 6-9" around HGR. It looks like it would be a good snowfall for much of the region. It's hard to work those snowfall maps on the phone, but I did manage to see enough to see a sig snow from Va up through Pa. I'm encouraged to see Euro consistency again. Are there any Euro total snow maps that can be accessed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 3, 2012 Share Posted November 3, 2012 It looks like it would be a good snowfall for much of the region. It's hard to work those snowfall maps on the phone, but I did manage to see enough to see a sig snow from Va up through Pa. I'm encouraged to see Euro consistency again. Are there any Euro total snow maps that can be accessed? it's a strange qpf signature to the maps on Wunderground it seems that where the heavy precip falls, it would be snow but for some reason it is more banding of qpf vs. typical synoptic event with general qpf over the entire area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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