TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Baltimore would start as snow but warms up aloft by 09Z and would probably be rain or sleet by 09Z if the model sounding at right. sfc temp would probably be around 34 unless it really came down hard in banding providing the model is correct. 9z on Thursday? My timing is all messed up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Baltimore would start as snow but warms up aloft by 09Z and would probably be rain or sleet by 09Z if the model sounding at right. sfc temp would probably be around 34 unless it really came down hard in banding providing the model is correct. True Wes, 4km WRF gives Baltimore 1.3" of QPF, most likely based on its convective tendencies, but regardless it deforms central MD which makes sense with a low track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 OMG 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Hearing rumors of feedback issues with the dual low structure being shown on the NAM causing a premature jump west... can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Hearing rumors of feedback issues with the dual low structure being shown on the NAM causing a premature jump west... can anyone confirm? The jump west certainly looks strange so I wouldn't be surprised but am not going to take time really looking at it with the election going on. Having the low almost west of the upper low is odd looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Even if NAM verifies I'd like to see a bigger thump. 3hr precip rates never get that high, which means white rain. SREFS are all further east so it maybe a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Well, NAM had errors and GFS sucked, now cast time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Hearing rumors of feedback issues with the dual low structure being shown on the NAM causing a premature jump west... can anyone confirm? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Chuck the 0z NAM: .SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EAST COAST WED-THU... ...INITIAL MS VALLEY ENERGY INTERACTING WITH THIS SYSTEM... BASED ON THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS... THE MODEL PLACES THE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN ATLC ABOUT 60 NM TO THE W OF THE OBSERVED POSN. THE PMSL STAMP IN THE NAM IS ABOUT 35 NM TO THE W OF THE OBS LOW POSN. ALSO OF NOTE THE NAM HAS ANALYZED 850 MB TEMPS AT IAD/WAL ABOUT 2 C COLDER THAN SEEN IN RAOB REPORTS AND NAM 500 MB HGTS AT WAL/MHX ARE ABOUT 2 DM LOWER THAN RAOB VALUES. THE NAM AND FARTHER SWD 12Z CANADIAN GLBL BRING THE SFC LOW FARTHEST WWD NEAR THE NRN MID ATLC COAST... WITH MID LVL CLOSED LOWS THAT ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN DEPTH/POSN FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU. FROM LATE THU ONWARD THE NAM IS GENERALLY ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE SFC LOW AND CORE OF MID LVL ENERGY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Hearing rumors of feedback issues with the dual low structure being shown on the NAM causing a premature jump west... can anyone confirm? The low sorta pirouettes under the UL low as the UL system closes off and the whole thing becomes vertically stacked...then gets kicked before it can cutoff and hang around. That's not unheard of, but the timing and placement of that sort of event is rarely handled well, much less perfectly. Obviously for us, and NE MD, that'd be a crucial element of the NAM's forecast. Tiny slips in that forecast will make a world of difference. The GFS's evolution as the system becomes vertically stacked is probably a safer bet, assuming one were going to simply place a bet based on odds rather than confidence rooted in experience and/or knowledge. FWIW, I'd have to do go the whole odds route.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 From some guy on Accu Forums -- " According to the current radar It totally looks as if this system is wayyyyy ahead of schedule By only looking at current radar I would think whatever precipitation makes it into the Baltimore area would be in here and gone by tomorrow mid day at the latest, while all forecast have precip going well into the night time hours of tomorrow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 From some guy on Accu Forums -- " According to the current radar It totally looks as if this system is wayyyyy ahead of schedule By only looking at current radar I would think whatever precipitation makes it into the Baltimore area would be in here and gone by tomorrow mid day at the latest, while all forecast have precip going well into the night time hours of tomorrow." Precip cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Precip cancel. storm cancel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 From some guy on Accu Forums -- " According to the current radar It totally looks as if this system is wayyyyy ahead of schedule If you're going to post radar hallucinations at least make your own. Pulling one from inaccuwx and cross posting in a pinned storm thread is craptastic and that's a complement at best. Do it a couple times in December and you will have to carefully select your 5 posts each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 00z Euro is a tad bit east of 12z and looks to be a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Euro snow map brings 1" contour almost to about DC or just NE. Balt closer to 2" but that's just Ne mainly, far NE MD still 2-3" but jackpot E PA, much of NJ with 4-8". QPF about .25" total for DC which is what most models are near at this pt. If it comes at night we might pull a dusting or so, maybe a bit more if we get a burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Winter weather advisory posted for Carroll, Baltimore, Harford counties. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CARROLL...NORTHERN BALTIMORE...AND NORTHERN HARFORD COUNTIES. * TIMING...LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE STEADIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * IMPACTS...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS...BUT SOME ROADS MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The SREFS just came west west. lol Verdict may never be out on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Radar watching is a slippery slope IMHO... especially given that the various products available online tend to show returns over an area for hours before precip actually begins falling from the sky. My question is - what other factors/ observational data can you look at to determine if precip is beginning to fill in in a certain area... for instance the Intellicast national radar is showing over a good portion of VA in to MD. How can I verify if 1) precip is actually falling, 2) whether or not the precip is filling in or dissipating. I appreciate anyones help on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Radar watching is a slippery slope IMHO... especially given that the various products available online tend to show returns over an area for hours before precip actually begins falling from the sky. My question is - what other factors/ observational data can you look at to determine if precip is beginning to fill in in a certain area... for instance the Intellicast national radar is showing over a good portion of VA in to MD. How can I verify if 1) precip is actually falling, 2) whether or not the precip is filling in or dissipating. I appreciate anyones help on this one! When the dew point and the actually temp in any given local are the same is normally a good indication that precip is reaching or about to reach the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 When the dew point and the actually temp in any given local are the same is normally a good indication that precip is reaching or about to reach the ground. Thank you... I thought it would be something simple like that:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Best gfs run for us in while. Finally shows meaningful precipitation at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Its looking like Baltimore suburbs could see anywhere between 1-3". Already about to see more snow than last year. May be my first accumulations living in Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Best gfs run for us in while. Finally shows meaningful precipitation at BWI. Are you comparing to the 00Z GFS? Because to me they are almost carbon copies of the placement of and total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Are you comparing to the 00Z GFS? Because to me they are almost carbon copies of the placement of and total precip. I didn't see last night's GFS total precip. GFS was light for a good amount of runs before though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The SW edge of this band wouldn't excite me too much even at BWI. I'm not sure how organized it will be. It's gonna have to really come down violently. It's going to be nowcasting, but I would keep expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I didn't see last night's GFS total precip. GFS was light for a good amount of runs before though. Must have been looking at the wrong map because I do see a slight increase in the expanse to the west from Balt to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted November 7, 2012 Author Share Posted November 7, 2012 Flurries are mixed in with sprinkles here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Hope this isnt the winter pattern setting up where NJ/NY/NE get crushed and we get skipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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