EasternUSWX Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 At this time range don't post a coarse resolution ensemble mean as it is going to smear the precip on each member. Use the sref as it has higher resolution than the gefs but even then at this time range, I'd start using the high resolution models as my ensembles. Ya I have looked at some of them and they are even more west than this, which is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 6, 2012 Share Posted November 6, 2012 Updated LWX snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Updated LWX snow map I wonder what made them up it so quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Isn't the LWX snow map some sort of automated output? I never even look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I wonder what made them up it so quickly? I've never really understood those maps. Are they man made or computer generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I've never really understood those maps. Are they man made or computer generated. Their contours make me think it is computer generated but i'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BryanJ Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I've never really understood those maps. Are they man made or computer generated. Man made. Simple sum of LWX snow grids. Visual depiction of what is in Point n' Click forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I've never really understood those maps. Are they man made or computer generated. Gotta love that cutoff for us in the Shenandoah Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 I'll start the radar hallucinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 the sky looked wintry today...radar looks interesting...i'll track it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 "Slushy coating on grassy surfaces" sounds too generous if anything from DC to Baltimore. Dynamic cooling needs good precip rates to work. If the precip rates EURO is showing over the DC-BAL area verify, the moon angle will be a problem!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 "Slushy coating on grassy surfaces" sounds too generous if anything from DC to Baltimore. Dynamic cooling needs good precip rates to work. If the precip rates EURO is showing over the DC-BAL area verify, the moon angle will be a problem!! This is a cold air mass. Don't think you need the super band at this pt but still want some sort of rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM seems a little faster. Maybe a little more west through 12. Nothing to write home about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM a little quicker and further NW than 18Z through 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 More energy through the bottom of the trof this run. Also a vortmax over ms/tn border @ 12 that wasn't there before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM definitely NW @ 18. Both aloft and at surface. Has that 'micro cane' look to it. Very compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Should be a tad wetter in Baltimore, at least. Not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The low is almost onshore in S.NJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM is way west. Legitimate snow storm @ 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM is way west. Legitimate snow storm @ 24. Still a wicked tight gradient, but when you have heavy precip 50 miles away it doesn't take much of a shift between cycles to get you into the good stuff. I figured we'd see this. These mega sharp cutoffs often diffuse out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Still a wicked tight gradient, but when you have heavy precip 50 miles away it doesn't take much of a shift between cycles to get you into the good stuff. I figured we'd see this. These mega sharp cutoffs often diffuse out. Yea it's hard to believe a low that close isn't throwing precip further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Still a wicked tight gradient, but when you have heavy precip 50 miles away it doesn't take much of a shift between cycles to get you into the good stuff. I figured we'd see this. These mega sharp cutoffs often diffuse out. That is typical with nam and will spread out as we start to see actual precip shield nw of it. I think if Gfs has that track precip will be more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Lulz, storm comes onshore at 30? Whaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 .25 line runs parallel to DC, .5 parallel to Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This track toasts us. It can't stall there if you want a good amount of snow lol. This is really complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This track toasts us. It can't stall there if you want a good amount of snow lol. This is really complicated. Yeah, can't forget it is early November. If we get 3 inches of snow it will be highly irregular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 LOL on twister data the landfall and track is eerily sandy like..... Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM DC .5 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 East side of Baltimore MTN about .6-.7" QPF, though with a low track like that I'd say the precip would definitely be more for both Baltimore and DC back to the BR. There would also definitely be some banding through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 East side of Baltimore MTN about .6-.7" QPF, though with a low track like that I'd say the precip would definitely be more for both Baltimore and DC back to the BR. There would also definitely be some banding through our area. Baltimore would start as snow but warms up aloft by 09Z and would probably be rain or sleet by 09Z if the model sounding at right. sfc temp would probably be around 34 unless it really came down hard in banding providing the model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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