Amped Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 "Slushy coating on grassy surfaces" sounds too generous if anything from DC to Baltimore. Dynamic cooling needs good precip rates to work. If the precip rates EURO is showing over the DC-BAL area verify, the moon angle will be a problem!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 "Slushy coating on grassy surfaces" sounds too generous if anything from DC to Baltimore. Dynamic cooling needs good precip rates to work. If the precip rates EURO is showing over the DC-BAL area verify, the moon angle will be a problem!! This is a cold air mass. Don't think you need the super band at this pt but still want some sort of rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM seems a little faster. Maybe a little more west through 12. Nothing to write home about yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM a little quicker and further NW than 18Z through 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 More energy through the bottom of the trof this run. Also a vortmax over ms/tn border @ 12 that wasn't there before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM definitely NW @ 18. Both aloft and at surface. Has that 'micro cane' look to it. Very compact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Should be a tad wetter in Baltimore, at least. Not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 The low is almost onshore in S.NJ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM is way west. Legitimate snow storm @ 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM is way west. Legitimate snow storm @ 24. Still a wicked tight gradient, but when you have heavy precip 50 miles away it doesn't take much of a shift between cycles to get you into the good stuff. I figured we'd see this. These mega sharp cutoffs often diffuse out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Still a wicked tight gradient, but when you have heavy precip 50 miles away it doesn't take much of a shift between cycles to get you into the good stuff. I figured we'd see this. These mega sharp cutoffs often diffuse out. Yea it's hard to believe a low that close isn't throwing precip further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Still a wicked tight gradient, but when you have heavy precip 50 miles away it doesn't take much of a shift between cycles to get you into the good stuff. I figured we'd see this. These mega sharp cutoffs often diffuse out. That is typical with nam and will spread out as we start to see actual precip shield nw of it. I think if Gfs has that track precip will be more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Lulz, storm comes onshore at 30? Whaaa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 .25 line runs parallel to DC, .5 parallel to Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This track toasts us. It can't stall there if you want a good amount of snow lol. This is really complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 This track toasts us. It can't stall there if you want a good amount of snow lol. This is really complicated. Yeah, can't forget it is early November. If we get 3 inches of snow it will be highly irregular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 LOL on twister data the landfall and track is eerily sandy like..... Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 NAM DC .5 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 East side of Baltimore MTN about .6-.7" QPF, though with a low track like that I'd say the precip would definitely be more for both Baltimore and DC back to the BR. There would also definitely be some banding through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 East side of Baltimore MTN about .6-.7" QPF, though with a low track like that I'd say the precip would definitely be more for both Baltimore and DC back to the BR. There would also definitely be some banding through our area. Baltimore would start as snow but warms up aloft by 09Z and would probably be rain or sleet by 09Z if the model sounding at right. sfc temp would probably be around 34 unless it really came down hard in banding providing the model is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Baltimore would start as snow but warms up aloft by 09Z and would probably be rain or sleet by 09Z if the model sounding at right. sfc temp would probably be around 34 unless it really came down hard in banding providing the model is correct. 9z on Thursday? My timing is all messed up now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Baltimore would start as snow but warms up aloft by 09Z and would probably be rain or sleet by 09Z if the model sounding at right. sfc temp would probably be around 34 unless it really came down hard in banding providing the model is correct. True Wes, 4km WRF gives Baltimore 1.3" of QPF, most likely based on its convective tendencies, but regardless it deforms central MD which makes sense with a low track like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 OMG 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Hearing rumors of feedback issues with the dual low structure being shown on the NAM causing a premature jump west... can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Hearing rumors of feedback issues with the dual low structure being shown on the NAM causing a premature jump west... can anyone confirm? The jump west certainly looks strange so I wouldn't be surprised but am not going to take time really looking at it with the election going on. Having the low almost west of the upper low is odd looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Even if NAM verifies I'd like to see a bigger thump. 3hr precip rates never get that high, which means white rain. SREFS are all further east so it maybe a hiccup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Well, NAM had errors and GFS sucked, now cast time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Hearing rumors of feedback issues with the dual low structure being shown on the NAM causing a premature jump west... can anyone confirm? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Chuck the 0z NAM: .SYSTEM AFFECTING THE EAST COAST WED-THU... ...INITIAL MS VALLEY ENERGY INTERACTING WITH THIS SYSTEM... BASED ON THE NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND ANALYSIS... THE MODEL PLACES THE SFC LOW OVER THE WRN ATLC ABOUT 60 NM TO THE W OF THE OBSERVED POSN. THE PMSL STAMP IN THE NAM IS ABOUT 35 NM TO THE W OF THE OBS LOW POSN. ALSO OF NOTE THE NAM HAS ANALYZED 850 MB TEMPS AT IAD/WAL ABOUT 2 C COLDER THAN SEEN IN RAOB REPORTS AND NAM 500 MB HGTS AT WAL/MHX ARE ABOUT 2 DM LOWER THAN RAOB VALUES. THE NAM AND FARTHER SWD 12Z CANADIAN GLBL BRING THE SFC LOW FARTHEST WWD NEAR THE NRN MID ATLC COAST... WITH MID LVL CLOSED LOWS THAT ARE NEARLY IDENTICAL IN DEPTH/POSN FROM WED NIGHT INTO THU. FROM LATE THU ONWARD THE NAM IS GENERALLY ON THE SWRN FRINGE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE SFC LOW AND CORE OF MID LVL ENERGY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted November 7, 2012 Share Posted November 7, 2012 Hearing rumors of feedback issues with the dual low structure being shown on the NAM causing a premature jump west... can anyone confirm? The low sorta pirouettes under the UL low as the UL system closes off and the whole thing becomes vertically stacked...then gets kicked before it can cutoff and hang around. That's not unheard of, but the timing and placement of that sort of event is rarely handled well, much less perfectly. Obviously for us, and NE MD, that'd be a crucial element of the NAM's forecast. Tiny slips in that forecast will make a world of difference. The GFS's evolution as the system becomes vertically stacked is probably a safer bet, assuming one were going to simply place a bet based on odds rather than confidence rooted in experience and/or knowledge. FWIW, I'd have to do go the whole odds route.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.